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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & The Search For The Bottom Line

14/01/2026

Market Premium For 10-Year Yield Holds Near Fair Value Estimate

Market Premium For 10-Year Yield Holds Near Fair Value Estimate The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade near a fair value estimate, based on the average estimate of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s update shows an ongoing extension of the near-neutr...

13/01/2026

Micro-caps Lead The Stock Market So Far In 2026–Can It Last?

Micro-caps Lead The Stock Market So Far In 2026–Can It Last? It’s still too early to draw conclusions about how or if the new year will differ from 2025 from a US equity market perspective. But a possible early clue that a shift is underway can be gleaned from reviewing performances for US equit...

12/01/2026

Will Markets React To The US Investigation Of Fed’s Powell?

Will Markets React To The US Investigation Of Fed’s Powell? Another week, and another new risk factor to digest. This time it’s a sharp escalation in President Donald Trump’s struggle with the Federal Reserve, which critics charge is a thinly-veiled effort to force the central bank to lower in...

10/01/2026

Book Bits: 10 January 2026

Book Bits: 10 January 2026 ● Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to the Modern Era Duncan Weldon Review via The Economist Of all human activities, war is the least rational. It costs a fortune. It spreads death and misery, from the killing fields of Sudan to the tunnels ...

09/01/2026

Research Review | 9 January 2026 | Tariffs and Trade Wars

Research Review | 9 January 2026 | Tariffs and Trade Wars Tariff Pass-through into Retail Prices: Measurement, Replacement, and Shrink-flation Liang Bai (King’s College London), et al. December 2025 To what extent do import tariffs pass-through into retail prices? Existing estimates for the U.S.-C...

08/01/2026

Will The Supreme Court Rule Against Trump’s Tariffs?

Will The Supreme Court Rule Against Trump’s Tariffs? The answer is pending as early as tomorrow (Friday, Jan. 9), when the High Court is expected to issue rulings, which could include a decision on the legality of President Trump’s global tariffs. Hanging in the balance: the potential for billio...

07/01/2026

Markets Barely Blink After US Removes Venezuela’s Maduro

Markets Barely Blink After US Removes Venezuela’s Maduro The news was certainly dramatic. But financial and commodity markets have shrugged following the news that the US, in a daring raid on Saturday, captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, and brought him to New York to stand trial on...

06/01/2026

US Economy Expected To Cool In Q4, Based On Latest Nowcasts

US Economy Expected To Cool In Q4, Based On Latest Nowcasts After two straight quarters of strong growth, US economic output is on track to downshift in the upcoming report on 2025’s fourth quarter, according to the median estimate for a set of GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The ex...

05/01/2026

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 5 January 2026

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 5 January 2026 Long-term expectations for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained steady at a 7%-plus pace for the annualized total return outlook, based on data through December. The forecast has been relatively stable at this level recently, rising frac...

04/01/2026

Book Bits: 4 January 2026

Book Bits: 4 January 2026 ● The Web Beneath the Waves: The Fragile Cables that Connect our World Samanth Subramanian Review via Los Angeles Review of Books Nearly twenty years ago, during a congressional debate over net neutrality, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska described the internet as a “serie...

02/01/2026

Major Asset Classes | December 2025 | Performance Review

Major Asset Classes | December 2025 | Performance Review Global markets endured a volatile run in 2025, but when the last trades closed on Dec. 31 all the major asset classes posted gains for the year, based on a set of ETFs. As a result, outperforming passive global asset allocation strategies was....

22/12/2025

Will The Bond Market Help Keep Stocks Humming In 2026?

Will The Bond Market Help Keep Stocks Humming In 2026? Identifying the reasons why the stock market rises or falls is challenging, if not impossible, but the slide in interest rates has surely bees a non-trivial factor in lifting equities this year. A key question for 2026: Will the tailwind continu...

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