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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & The Search For The Bottom Line

08/09/2025

Major Asset Classes Posting Across-The-Board Gain In 2025

Major Asset Classes Posting Across-The-Board Gain In 2025 If global markets flatlined at current prices through New Year’s Eve, the results would go into the history books indicating a solid, widespread bull run for 2025. The question is whether the priced-for-perfection state of affairs will endu...

06/09/2025

Book Bits: 6 September 2025

Book Bits: 6 September 2025 ● The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy Neil Shearing Interview with author via Financial Times It’s a widely held assumption that US President Donald Trump has put globalization into reverse. But Neil Shearing, group chief ...

05/09/2025

Is The Stock Market Overbought?

Is The Stock Market Overbought? The short answer: Yes, it appears to be. The somewhat longer answer: Yes, but (you knew this was coming) a number of indicators have been advising no less over the summer, and yet the market has continued to climb. Short-term timing decisions, in other words, remain a...

04/09/2025

Softer US Economic Growth Expected For Q3 GDP Report

Softer US Economic Growth Expected For Q3 GDP Report The US economy remains on track to post a moderate downshift in growth in next month’s third-quarter GDP report, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Output is projected to rise an annualized 2.2% ...

03/09/2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 September 2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 03 September 2025 The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to hold in the low-7% range in August, based on the average for three models (defined below). The expected performance remains well below the trailing 10-yea...

02/09/2025

Major Asset Classes | August 2025 | Performance Review

Major Asset Classes | August 2025 | Performance Review Global equities in developed markets ex-US led continued to lead the major asset classes in August, based on a set of ETFs. Last month’s rally strengthened the year-to-date leadership for these stocks, which continue outperform the rest of the...

31/08/2025

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 31 AUG 2025

Trend Watch: Global Markets & Portfolio Strategy Benchmarks

28/08/2025

Markets Continue To Expect Fed Will Cut Rates Next Month

Markets Continue To Expect Fed Will Cut Rates Next Month Is it because of President Trump’s pressure campaign on the central bank to lower rates? Or perhaps it’s all about concerns that economic growth is slowing and receding expectations that tariff will raise inflation. Maybe it’s a combinat...

27/08/2025

Is The Sharp Rise In Electricity Prices An Early Inflation Warning?

Is The Sharp Rise In Electricity Prices An Early Inflation Warning? Multiple factors are driving up prices for electricity at a time when inflation anxiety is mounting. Next month’s consumer inflation report for August, just days ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on interest rates, w...

26/08/2025

Trump Policies Will Test Limits Of US Economic Resilience

Trump Policies Will Test Limits Of US Economic Resilience The economy isn’t in recession, and isn’t likely to go negative in the immediate future, but the mounting pressure via White House policies will test US resiliency in the months ahead. Since President Trump’s inauguration in January, he...

25/08/2025

US Bond Market Continues To Trail Foreign Fixed Income

US Bond Market Continues To Trail Foreign Fixed Income Tilting toward foreign bonds remains a winning strategy for US investors this year, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Aug. 22). The modest gain for a benchmark of US government and investment-grade securities has been no match for...

23/08/2025

Book Bits: 23 August 2025

Book Bits: 23 August 2025 ● Here Comes the Sun: A Last Chance for the Climate and a Fresh Chance for Civilization Bill McKibben Review via The New Atlantis Some years ago, my colleagues and I used to joke that after the revolution, all essays about climate change would be written by Bill McKibben....

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