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Moderate Rebound Still Expected For US Economy In Q2 GDP Data
18/07/2025

Moderate Rebound Still Expected For US Economy In Q2 GDP Data

Moderate Rebound Still Expected For US Economy In Q2 GDP Data The government’s second-quarter GDP report scheduled for later this month is still on track to post a moderate recovery in output, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s revised Q2...

Industrials Holding On To Lead As Top Equity Sector In 2025
17/07/2025

Industrials Holding On To Lead As Top Equity Sector In 2025

Industrials Holding On To Lead As Top Equity Sector In 2025 In a volatile year for stocks, as tariffs and other factors roil expectations and keep investors on edge, industrial stocks are the market darlings since the April rebound. Using a set of ETF proxies, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund....

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 July 2025
16/07/2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 July 2025

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 16 July 2025 The market premium for the US Treasury yield edged lower in June, based on analysis using a “fair value” estimate. But with inflation showing signs of heating up due to tariffs, economic conditions don’t look particularly conduc...

The Everything Rally In 2025 Rolls On
15/07/2025

The Everything Rally In 2025 Rolls On

The Everything Rally In 2025 Rolls On Judging by the headlines, there’s a lot to worry about. But if markets are anxious it’s not obvious in the year-to-date results for the major asset classes, which are posting across-the-board gains in 2025 via a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Jan. 14)...

Will Tariffs Derail The Bull Run In Global Equities Ex-US?
14/07/2025

Will Tariffs Derail The Bull Run In Global Equities Ex-US?

Will Tariffs Derail The Bull Run In Global Equities Ex-US? A single decision has been crucial for a global equities strategy this year: selecting the weights for foreign vs. US stocks. The higher the weight in shares outside the US, the higher the performance so far in 2025. But as President Trump p...

Book Bits: 12 July 2025
12/07/2025

Book Bits: 12 July 2025

Book Bits: 12 July 2025 ● Should the World Fear China? Zhou Bo Summary via publisher (Hurst) For Washington, China is a strategic competitor: the only country with both the will to reshape the world order and, increasingly, the means to do so. For Europe, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is ...

11/07/2025

Research Review | 11 July 2025 | Risk Factors

Research Review | 11 July 2025 | Risk Factors Factoring in the Low-Volatility Factor Amar Soebhag (Erasmus University Rotterdam), et al. June 2025 Low-volatility stocks have historically delivered higher risk-adjusted returns than their high-volatility peers. Despite extensive evidence and widesprea...

Momentum Is Still 2025’s Top Performer For Equity Risk Factors
10/07/2025

Momentum Is Still 2025’s Top Performer For Equity Risk Factors

Momentum Is Still 2025’s Top Performer For Equity Risk Factors In a dizzying year of economic news, along with numerous twists and turns in financial markets, the performance leadership for the momentum factor stands out as a hardy perennial year to date. This equity risk factor continues to outpe...

Betting Market Economic and Financial Predictions | 09 July 2025
09/07/2025

Betting Market Economic and Financial Predictions | 09 July 2025

Betting Market Economic and Financial Predictions | 09 July 2025 There are numerous ways to predict economic and market outcomes. One of the more recent arrivals in the realm of trying to divine the future is the rise of prediction markets — platforms where individuals can wager on the outcome of ...

Rebound Outlook Softens For US Q2 GDP Nowcast
08/07/2025

Rebound Outlook Softens For US Q2 GDP Nowcast

Rebound Outlook Softens For US Q2 GDP Nowcast The US economy remains on track to rebound in the second quarter after the modest contraction in Q1, but the expected bounce has downshifted, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The upcoming Q2 GDP report....

Bond Market Will Struggle To Price In Conflicting Risk Factors
07/07/2025

Bond Market Will Struggle To Price In Conflicting Risk Factors

Bond Market Will Struggle To Price In Conflicting Risk Factors The week ahead will provide early clues for two very different risk factors looming for the bond market. On the one hand, the on-again/off-again risk of tariffs is lurking – a development that could create new economic headwinds that s...

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 July 2025
02/07/2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 July 2025

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 July 2025 The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher for a third straight month in June, rising to an annualized 7.3% from the 7.2% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is moderately below GMI’s ...

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