01/04/2025
As many know by now there is a risk of severe thunderstorms today. However, it’s also conditional. Implying we may not see any storms at all in an otherwise volatile, classic setup that would “normally” be conducive for significant severe thunderstorms.
-Timing of strongest forcing for ascent “lift” is rather not certain. Should it arrive during the peak heating of the day then we should quickly erode an already “breakable” thermal inversion just above the surface.
-There is a bit more certainty that some development could occur as seeing the base of the EML from K**A fits in the zone between the LFC and LCL from a forecast sounding from KOUN, conceptually this means should there be enough lift, we get storms to develop.
-Moisture will rapidly surge back north as seen with a crudely sketched in warm front. Which immediately behind that front is overcast skies, low cloud cover. This will rapidly head back north amid deep surface cyclogenesis which is occurring now as strong mid level westerlies push over the Rockies.
-Largely we also see a glancing blow from strongest large scale ascent. The angle at which this upper jet core approaches from and its timing is important as well. Conceptually, the left exit region is traditionally where we see the strongest lift and ascent. We will kinda be situated in a zone where we see neutral to modest height falls through the day.
While there are a lot of negatives which really limit the potential, there are some things working for it such as low level flow slightly veered and more parallel to the dryline. We touched on this last night as if budding updrafts were to develop, they can stay within a zone of maximized ascent and have a better chance of maturing before moving off the boundary where they can freely utilize the primed parameter space. Should storms develop, especially toward late evening, then it’ll be off to the races especially if they can mature and have well established, strong mesocyclones which can continue strong, upward parcel acceleration and the maintenance of self regeneration through their own pressure perturbations. Should this occur, then all hazards would be possible including very large hail up to baseball size, tornadoes (a few long tracked, strong/intense), as well as damaging wind gusts.
A lot of things have to be accounted for and those are really the options of possibility. A lot of people will be sharing a bunch of CAMs and prognosticate what they think they have looked at, seen or what have you but in essence, it’s a wait and see and sometimes we don’t know what will happen till it happens. Bottom line, environment is potent/significant but there is a big bust potential and I really hope that we can bust more than boom cause the last thing we need is destructive storms. Would much rather have the beneficial rainfall opposed to the severe storms. But it’s April officially now and it’s Oklahoma and that’s the type of thing you have to deal with sometimes.
