04/11/2025
"The Tropical Depression we are monitoring has maintained its strength. It is expected to intensify into a Tropical Storm within the next 6 to 12 hours, become a Severe Tropical Storm within the next 72 hours, and is forecast to develop into a Typhoon within the next 120 hours"
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY – Japan Meteorological Agency
Issued: November 4, 2025, 7:05 PM JST
(Based on JMA analysis at 11/04 09:00 UTC — forecast times shown are the JMA times you provided)
At 7:05 PM JST, the center of the Tropical Depression (TD "b") was located near 8.6° North, 144.2° East, or approximately 543 km south of Guam. The system is moving westward at 30 km/h.
▪️ Central pressure: 1004 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds near the center: 55 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 85 km/h
24-Hour Forecast (Valid November 5, 2025, 6:00 PM JST / 09:00 UTC)
Forecast center: 9.4° North, 143.1° East, about 486 km south-southwest of Guam
▪️ Movement: Northwest, slow
▪️ Central pressure: 1000 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds: 65 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 95 km/h
▪️ Radius of probability circle: 130 km
48-Hour Forecast (Valid November 6, 2025, 3:00 PM JST / 06:00 UTC)
Forecast center: 11.3° North, 141.5° East, about 430 km west-southwest of Guam
▪️ Movement: North-northwest at 10 km/h
▪️ Central pressure: 994 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds: 85 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 120 km/h
▪️ Radius of probability circle: 200 km
72-Hour Forecast (Valid November 7, 2025, 3:00 PM JST / 06:00 UTC)
Forecast center: 13.1° North, 138.3° East, about 704 km west of Guam
▪️ Movement: West-northwest at 15 km/h
▪️ Central pressure: 992 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds: 90 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 130 km/h
▪️ Radius of probability circle: 260 km
96-Hour Forecast (Valid November 8, 2025, 3:00 PM JST / 06:00 UTC)
Forecast center: 14.4° North, 134.2° East, about 1,086 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
▪️ Movement: West-northwest at 20 km/h
▪️ Central pressure: 985 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 155 km/h
▪️ Radius of probability circle: 330 km
▪️ Radius of storm warning area: 370 km
120-Hour Forecast (Valid November 9, 2025, 3:00 PM JST / 06:00 UTC)
Forecast center: 16.0° North, 128.2° East, about 510 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
▪️ Movement: West-northwest at 30 km/h
▪️ Central pressure: 980 hPa
▪️ Maximum sustained winds: 125 km/h
▪️ Maximum gusts: 175 km/h
▪️ Radius of probability circle: 440 km
▪️ Radius of storm warning area: 490 km
Forecast Outlook:
The tropical depression is expected to steadily intensify while tracking generally west to west-northwest, approaching the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the next 36 to 48 hours. It is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm within 24 hours and may become a severe tropical storm to typhoon before nearing the eastern Philippine Sea east of Luzon.
Potential Impacts (Preliminary):
▪️ Bicol Region, Aurora, Quezon, and Cagayan: Possible heavy rainbands, gusty to strong winds, and rough coastal seas within 72 hours.
▪️ Eastern Luzon and Samar–Bicol coastal areas: Anticipate increasing swells and strong onshore winds as the system approaches the PAR.
▪️ Mariners: Advised of rough to very rough seas over the eastern seaboard of Luzon and Visayas.