Force Thirteen

04/07/2025

A tropical storm is forming off the northwestern coast of Luzon in the Philippines, and has been named Bising by PAGASA. Whilst the system has not so far been recognised as a fully fledged storm, there are indications that it could meet the requirements or will do so very soon. The storm is expected to intensify as it drags northeastwards through the Batanes islands and then the southern Ryukyu islands, before stalling in the East China Sea and gaining strength. Longer range forecasts suggest that the storm could become a major typhoon before heading for eastern China. In the meantime, the primary threat is rainfall where up to 500mm could fall in parts of Luzon, causing major flash flooding concerns. Signal 1 warnings are in effect for parts of Ilocos Norte and the Babuyan islands.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Mun is holding a good tight core to the northeast of the Ogasawara island chain, and could become a typhoon as it swings eastwards and may hook back towards Japan this weekend or early next week.

In the Eastern Pacific, Flossie is dying off, but is soon to be replaced by another likely storm moving out to sea, and another storm may form next week behind it.

In the Atlantic, an area of interest is showing a weak rotation near the bend region of Florida, and is expected to curve through the northern peninsula and may become a tropical cyclone near the coast of South Carolina in a few days.

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18/06/2025

Hurricane Erick rapidly strengthening into a very powerful storm as it approaches the coast of Oaxaca in Mexico. Dangerous winds and storm surge are expected.
Live at 6pm CST:

Hurricane Erick continues to rapidly intensify as it draws closer to the coast of Oaxaca in southern Mexico, with a large storm surge and destructive winds l...

17/06/2025

Hurricane Warnings in effect for Erick as the storm approaches Mexico. We are live from 6pm CST (12am UTC)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Tropical Storm Erick, which is steadily intensifying as it starts to approach the coast of Mexico. The storm is expected...

14/06/2025

makes landfall over

No other tropical development is expected in the next 7 days.

14/06/2025

Typhoon Wutip reached its peak intensity earlier as it reached the coast of Hainan island in China and briefly passing over land. The storm is now back over water to the northwest and has weakened somewhat, but its tight core remains in place and restrengthening is possible in the short time it has before what is expected to be Wutip's final landfall near Belhai. Red Typhoon Warnings are in effect, and the storm is likely to cause more flash flooding and strong winds over Guangdong with an additional 300mm of rainfall possible in some places.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Dalila was named earlier today and is now located less than 300 kilometers from the coast of Mexico. Due to the storm's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast and Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted. Dalila is not expected to strengthen too much, and is likely to remain offshore and turn towards the west following in a similar fashion to previous storms.

In the longer range, not many candidates for development are apparent, with a possible spin-up behind Dalila, and a possible system in the open western Pacific next week.

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13/06/2025

bearing down over

13/06/2025

has reached typhoon intensity since this morning, currently maintaining its intensity as it maneuvers around

12/06/2025

heading towards
Based on radar observations, has become a tropical depression as it approaches

12/06/2025

has continued to intensify, and is now a severe tropical storm by F13 analysis. It is expected to continue northwest and make landfall over by tomorrow.

11/06/2025

Tropical Storm Wutip formed earlier today in the South China Sea, and is briskly moving westwards towards Hainan and the coast of Vietnam. The large storm is expected to intensify as it reaches and curves through Hainan and on to mainland China, with a typhoon possible. The southern side of Wutip is currently producing a large band of heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding for parts of Vietnam overnight as well as strong winds.

Later in the forecast, the storm could also flood parts of Hainan, especially if it slows down or stalls over the area, along with winds nearing typhoon force. Wutip is then expected to turn northeastwards through mainland China, where rainfall will be largely moderate although some flooding concerns remain present.

Wutip is the first named storm of the 2025 Pacific Typhoon Season.

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10/06/2025

- The JTWC has upgraded into Tropical Depression , and is expected to continue intensifying as it moves towards .

Although far from the , it's likely to influence the monsoon and bring heavy rain towards the country.

10/06/2025

A large tropical cyclone is developing in the South China Sea, and is expected to deepen substantially before reaching Hainan by the end of the week. Models are converging on a track and are increasing in confidence on intensity, with a moderate to high end tropical storm likely. The GFS is still pushing for a stronger storm, at typhoon status by the time it reaches landfall on the southern coast of Hainan, before the storm curves northeastwards into mainland China.

Rainfall from the system could be very high over a large area, with parts of Vietnam, China, and Taiwan receiving over 300mm of rain, with isolated maximums on Hainan possibly reaching 800mm.

Elsewhere, Barbara became the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season earlier today, and Cosme could still achieve hurricane status as well before both storms shrivel and disappear near Isla Socorro in the next few days, as sea surface temperatures plunge.

However, two other systems could form behind the current pair, with a hurricane threat to Mexico possible next week.

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