Force Thirteen

23/10/2025

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to struggle in the Caribbean to the south of Haiti, and is moving westwards at this time. If current trends continue, the storm may resume its westward motion and intensify rapidly as it passes south of Jamaica, however, models are still heavily split over the future track and therefore intensity of the storm. Melissa's situation has changed little in the last 24 hours, with winds near 50mph.

Tropical Storm Fengshen died out near Hainan yesterday, and its remnants are about to reach the coast of Vietnam.

Cyclone Chenge continues to exceed expectations, and has maintained intensity as a moderate tropical storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean although signs of weakening are now becoming apparent. The storm will deliver storm force winds to Agalega later today, and then affect northern Madagascar and the Comoros islands later this week.

In the Eastern Pacific, one area of interest could develop later this week but is unlikely to affect land.

An area of interest is about to develop in the Bay of Bengal and could become a large tropical storm as it approaches the coast of India this weekend into early next week. The Arabian Sea area of interest remains extremely broad to the point where a center cannot be easily fixed, and the system may now track northwards towards the coast of Gujurat. Some models are suggesting that the storm will be hanging around for more than a week.

An area of interest over the South Indian Ocean could develop into a tropical storm later this week as it moves off towards the southwest. However, it's currently near its peak and chances are starting to decrease.

Next week, an area of interest could develop in the South China Sea.

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23/10/2025

The tropics remain active around the world today, with Tropical Storm Melissa taking center stage after forming earlier on Tuesday in the central Caribbean. The storm is producing a major quandary for forecasters with both track and intensity very uncertain at this time, and the National Hurricane Center forecast cone shows very slow movement over the next five days with large deviations possible. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for southwestern Haiti, whilst a Tropical Storm Watch is now active in Jamaica. Wherever Melissa tracks, slow movement is likely to cause very high rainfall totals, probably exceeding 20 inches in some places. The storm is currently forecasted to reach Category 1 hurricane status, but could become stronger with very conducive sea surface temperatures.

Tropical Storm Fengshen also improved in the last 24 hours, and likely peaked with winds near 65 miles per hour overnight local time. The storm is still showing significant signs of disjointedness between its low and mid level center, and is likely to continue to weaken as it tracks towards the coast of central Vietnam today.

Cyclone Chenge continues to exceed expectations, and has maintained intensity as a moderate tropical storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Tropical storm force winds are now expected on Agalega, northern Madagascar, and possibly the Comoros and the coast of Tanzania this weekend.

In the Eastern Pacific, one area of interest could develop later this week but is unlikely to affect land.

In the Bay of Bengal, an area of interest is moving inland over Tamil Nadu, India, and is no longer expected to develop. However, some models are indicating energy from Fengshen will sweep into the basin and spark another cyclone in the Andaman Sea later this week. The Arabian Sea area of interest has become so broad that a relocation has taken place, and the system may now track northwards towards the coast of Gujurat, with development unable to be ruled out.

An area of interest far off the coast of Indonesia could develop into a tropical storm later this week as it moves off towards the southwest.

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21/10/2025

The tropics are extremely active around the world at the moment, with the most pressing threat still Tropical Storm Fengshen in the South China Sea, with winds near 50 miles per hour sustained. The storm is still struggling with a circulation, and the southern side is rather exposed, but heavy rainfall continues on the northern side with gusty winds for Hong Kong, Macau, and Guangdong province and Hainan in China. The storm is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple of days up to its landfall in central Vietnam, where it will quickly dissipate inland. A second system has a small chance of developing off the coast of Taiwan, and could follow in the footsteps of Fengshen dramatically increasing Vietnam's rainfall total from the two systems.

Elsewhere, Cyclone Chenge continues to exceed expectations, and is still a moderate tropical storm in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The storm is expected to weaken more slowly now, presenting a threat to Agalega, parts of the Seychelles, and northern Madagascar later this week.

In the Atlantic, Invest 98L is causing a lot of discussion as its potential continues to increase. The potential storm is likely to turn northwards and impact Hispaniola, but uncertainty remains significant and the storm could still track further west over even warmer waters. Presently the GFS model is forecasting the storm's structure to completely overhaul due to the land interaction, and become a gigantic strong hurricane over the open Atlantic as it speeds towards the northeast, and then reaching Newfoundland with hurricane force winds as an extratropical cyclone.

In the Eastern Pacific, two areas of interest could develop later this week but are unlikely to affect land.

In the Bay of Bengal, an area of interest has moved closer to the coast of Sri Lanka and southern India, and chances are starting to flicker.

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20/10/2025

The tropics are extremely active around the world at the moment, with the most pressing matter being the case of ex-tropical storm Fengshen, which lost its circulation yesterday and is fighting to reclaim tropical storm intensity today. The storm is likely to do this and intensify as it pushes against a frontal system near the coast of Hainan, with strong winds and locally heavy rainfall possible for the region, along with the rest of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau. Fengshen will then drift southwestwards and weaken as it heads towards Vietnam, but is also expected to prove itself a large rain threat there too, along with indirect impacts in Taiwan.

Elsewhere, Cyclone Chenge formed in the Southwest Indian Ocean, marking the 4th tropical cyclone already in the basin this season. The season typically begins around now or a little later. The storm is expected to drift westwards with little aim, although could deliver some strong winds as it withers away near the Seychelles later this week.

In the Atlantic, Invest 98L is causing a lot of discussion as its potential increases. With a moderate chance at this time, the potential storm could deliver a significant blow to Caribbean territories later this week, although the anticipated track is still up in the air. With the GFS model favouring a recurve, the Dominican Republic could be set for a significant impact, although other models take it towards Central America.

In the Eastern Pacific, two areas of interest could develop later this week but are unlikely to affect land.

In the Bay of Bengal, an area of interest could develop into a tropical cyclone later this week and head towards India. Another system in the Arabian Sea is unlikely to develop.

An area of interest off the coast of Indonesia could develop into a tropical storm later this week as it moves off towards the south and then southwest.

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29/09/2025

Satellite imagery sequences of Category 5 Typhoon Ragasa / Nando earlier this month
Infrared views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR6n5dizgjs
Visible views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWGz8T1bCoo

Several different viewpoints of Typhoon Ragasa viewed from visible channels of the Himawari 9 satellite, and from radar. Ragasa became a powerful Category 5 ...

27/09/2025

Hurricane Humberto likely another Category 5 based on latest satellite estimates, marking the second of the year in the Atlantic.
Live Tracker now active:

Hurricane Humberto has rapidly intensified over the course of the last few hours, and satellite estimates now place the storm firmly above the Category 5 thr...

26/09/2025

Kasalukuyang tumatawid sa Visayas region ang Bagyong ( ). Inaasahang lalabas ito sa kalupaan ng Pilipinas mamayang gabi. Nakataas ang Signal 3 at storm surge warnings sa , , at sa mga malapit na lugar.

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25/09/2025

Typhoon Bualoi (Opong) producing huge amounts of convection tonight. Whilst not a direct indication of rainfall, satellite derived estimates currently showing over 80mm per hour in parts of Samar.
Satellite imagery: https://www.force-13.com/satellite?flt=26W

25/09/2025

Tropical Storm Bualoi (Philippine name Opong) is throwing up large amounts of convection as it nears the coast of the central Philippines this evening, with torrential rainfall expected tonight for Samar, Leyte, and other neighboring islands, along with strong tropical storm force, or typhoon force winds.

Signal 3 warnings are in effect for the northeastern corner of the island of Samar, with Bualoi expected to maintain intensity as it crosses through the Visayas and southern Luzon regions of the Philippines. Bualoi is expected to strengthen, possibly quickly, as soon as it leaves the islands. Some models are indicating another major typhoon as the storm approaches Vietnam this weekend into early next week.

Rainfall projections are high, with over 400mm possible for several areas near the track of the storm, including Samar, Leyte, Panay, and Mindoro. Whilst less certain, the rainfall potential for Vietnam is even higher, with over 600mm possible when the storm finally arrives there.

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25/09/2025

Lumakas bilang severe tropical storm si Bagyong ( ) ngayong araw. Inaasahang lalapit na ito sa Samar at sa Bicol Region kung saan nakataas ang Signal 2 at storm surge warnings sa mga lugar.

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24/09/2025

The Azores are on alert for potential hurricane conditions on Thursday and Friday, with Gabrielle likely to still posess winds of up to 90 miles per hour (145kph) by the time it gets there, and the storm will quickly turn post-tropical after it passes through. Heavy rainfall will also accompany the storm through the Azores and into its extratropical phase, where it will likely affect Spain and Portugal.

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24/09/2025

Nabuo na ang isang bagyong inaasahan natin noong nakaraang mga araw, at pinangalanan na Opong ng PAGASA at Bualoi ng JMA. Inaasahang lalakas ito bilang severe tropical storm o isang typhoon habang lalapit sa Bicol Region.

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