Southeast Weather (2026)

28/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Saturday, September 27, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking two active systems in the Atlantic Basin this evening.

Tropical Depression Nine remains the primary area of concern for our region. The system is centered between eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas, where it continues to bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas. While still classified as a depression, gradual strengthening is possible as it tracks northwestward toward the northwestern Bahamas and eventually closer to the southeast U.S. coast in the coming days.

Farther out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Humberto is located over the southwestern subtropical Atlantic. Humberto is a stronger system but remains well offshore and does not currently pose a direct threat to land.

Aside from these two active storms, no additional tropical development is expected across the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days.

I’ll continue to provide updates on Tropical Depression Nine as it evolves and as new advisories are issued.

26/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
Friday, September 26, 2025 – 5:00 PM EDT

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm this weekend. Watches and warnings are already in effect for parts of the Bahamas as the system organizes.

As of 5 PM EDT, the disturbance was located near latitude 20.9°N, longitude 74.6°W, about 55 miles north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and 200 miles south-southeast of the central Bahamas. The system is moving northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.

Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Warning: Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Watch: Northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Forecast and Track

The system is expected to gradually strengthen, becoming a tropical depression on Saturday and a tropical storm by Saturday night or early Sunday. On its current forecast track, the center will move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend before approaching the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Formation chances remain high at 90 percent through both 48 hours and 7 days.

Hazards and Impacts

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning Saturday night, and possible in the watch area on Sunday.

Rainfall:

Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 16 inches.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba: 2 to 4 inches.
Heavy rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding, urban flooding, and possible mudslides in higher terrain.

Storm Surge: Water levels could rise 1 to 3 feet above ground level in parts of the northwestern Bahamas, accompanied by large waves.

Surf: Swells from both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect the Bahamas this weekend and reach the southeastern U.S. coast early next week, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

U.S. Outlook

While it is too early to determine the exact track and strength of the system as it nears the southeast U.S. coast, there is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, and storm surge impacts early next week from coastal Georgia through the southern Mid-Atlantic.

I’ll continue to track this system closely and provide updates as it strengthens and nears land.

26/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Friday, September 26, 2025

The Atlantic basin remains very active this morning, with two named systems already on the map and another disturbance showing strong potential to develop near the Bahamas.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is moving near the eastern Azores and no longer poses a tropical threat. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto has strengthened over the subtropical central Atlantic, remaining far from land but continuing to be monitored closely.

Closer to home, attention is focused on a tropical wave designated AL94, currently affecting Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and eastern Cuba. This system is producing widespread showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave by tonight as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas. Forecasters indicate that this low is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the weekend while moving into the central and northwestern Bahamas, then turning northwest or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.

Heavy rain and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos, and these conditions are expected to spread into the Bahamas and eastern Cuba over the next day or two. Beyond the islands, there is increasing concern for potential impacts along portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week, including the risks of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge. While there is still uncertainty in the system’s long-range track and intensity, development odds remain high—80 percent within 48 hours and 90 percent through seven days.

Residents in the Bahamas and across the southeastern United States should monitor forecasts closely as this system organizes during the peak of hurricane season.

25/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Invest 94L

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring Invest 94L, a tropical disturbance currently producing widespread showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across parts of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Forecasters expect an area of low pressure to develop along the wave by tonight or early Friday as it approaches the southeastern Bahamas.

Once the low forms, conditions will be favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves through the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend. Heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and strong wind gusts are expected across Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas regardless of how quickly the system organizes.

Looking farther ahead, Invest 94L is expected to move toward the southeastern United States early next week. While the exact track and intensity remain uncertain at this stage, there is potential for a strengthening tropical system to bring impacts to parts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. These could include heavy rainfall, gusty winds, rough surf, and coastal flooding, depending on how the system evolves.

Formation odds remain high—70 percent within 48 hours and 90 percent over the next 7 days. With hurricane season in its peak, residents across the Bahamas and along the southeastern U.S. coastline should monitor forecasts closely and be prepared to adjust plans if watches or warnings are issued in the coming days.

For illustration purposes only, the GFS and HWRF computer model has been included in this forecast discussion. This is not an official forecast, but rather one of many tools used to assess potential outcomes. Official information will continue to come from the National Hurricane Center.

25/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Thursday, September 25, 2025

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Humberto, which formed over the open Atlantic and is expected to gradually strengthen in the coming days.

As of the 5 AM AST advisory, Humberto was located near 21.2°N, 56.4°W, or about 480 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm is moving toward the northwest at around 10 mph and is forecast to continue on a west-northwest to northwest track while gradually slowing down.

Humberto is currently producing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center. Forecasters expect steady strengthening as the system moves over favorable waters, and Humberto could become stronger over the next several days.

At this time, no coastal watches or warnings are in effect, and the storm poses no immediate threat to land. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 1007 mb.

I’ll continue to track Humberto closely and provide updates as the system evolves. With peak hurricane season ongoing, it’s important to remain prepared and stay informed on tropical developments across the Atlantic.

24/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday, September 24, 2025

The Atlantic remains very active today, with Hurricane Gabrielle still churning over the central subtropical Atlantic and two additional systems showing strong potential for development as they track westward.

Hurricane Gabrielle continues to move over the open waters of the central subtropical Atlantic. The storm poses no immediate threat to land but will remain under close observation.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure designated AL93 is located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized, and environmental conditions favor further strengthening. A tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday as the system moves west-northwest to northwest across the western tropical Atlantic, staying well north of the Leeward Islands. Gale warnings may be issued, and additional information is available in High Seas Forecasts. Development chances are high—90 percent over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.

Closer to the Caribbean, another tropical wave, AL94, is bringing unsettled weather to the northeastern Caribbean. This system is producing disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds, spreading across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today and reaching the Dominican Republic tonight. By late this week, as it slows and turns northwest into the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas, conditions should become more favorable for development. A tropical depression is likely to form in that region. Development chances sit at 30 percent in the next 48 hours and climb to 80 percent through seven days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if needed.

Residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas should stay alert and monitor updates closely as both systems continue to evolve during the peak of hurricane season.

23/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Tuesday, September 23, 2025

The tropics remain very active this week, with one hurricane already spinning in the central Atlantic and two additional disturbances showing strong potential for development as they move westward.

Hurricane Gabrielle is currently located over the central subtropical Atlantic. The storm remains well out to sea and does not pose an immediate threat to land, but it will continue to be closely monitored in the coming days.

Farther south, a tropical wave designated AL93 is gaining organization in the central Atlantic, located less than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Forecasters expect conditions to become increasingly favorable, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwest to northwest. The chance of development is at 50 percent in the next 48 hours and rises sharply to 90 percent over the next seven days.

Closer to the islands, another disturbance designated AL94 is producing widespread showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the Windward and Leeward Islands. This wave will continue west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, bringing heavy rain and strong winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. By late week, as the system nears the Bahamas, conditions could allow for tropical depression formation. Development odds are currently at 20 percent in the next 48 hours and 60 percent through the next seven days.

Residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas should pay close attention to this system’s progress. With multiple areas to watch, this is a critical time to review preparedness plans as we continue through the peak of hurricane season.

21/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Sunday, September 21, 2025

Good morning everyone, here’s the latest look at the tropics. The Atlantic basin remains active as we move deeper into hurricane season, with one named storm on the map and another disturbance showing signs of potential development later this week.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle continues to move over the central subtropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Gabrielle, and while the storm remains far from land, it will be tracked closely in the coming days.

Meanwhile, a broad tropical wave has pushed into the central tropical Atlantic, currently located well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. At this time, environmental conditions are not favorable for development, so little change is expected through the next couple of days. However, conditions are forecast to gradually improve by mid to late week, and a tropical depression could form as the wave tracks west-northwest to northwest across the Atlantic. The formation chance is near zero percent in the next 48 hours, but increases to 40 percent over the next seven days.

We’re now entering the peak stretch of hurricane season, so it’s important to stay alert and prepared. I’ll continue to bring you updates as these systems evolve.

20/09/2025

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While development is unlikely during the next couple
of days, environmental conditions should gradually become more
favorable for slow development of this disturbance by the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

17/09/2025

More of the Blue Ridge Parkway is open to traffic again after Helene

17/09/2025

Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Good afternoon, weather watchers! The tropics remain active this week, with one named storm already spinning and a couple of tropical waves being monitored for possible development. Let’s break it down:

Tropical Storm Gabrielle has officially formed in the central Tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is tracking Gabrielle closely, and while it’s still far out to sea, this system will be one to watch over the coming days as it continues on its westward journey.

Over the Cabo Verde Islands, a tropical wave is stirring up disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While environmental conditions aren’t overly favorable, some slow development can’t be ruled out. Rain will continue across the islands through Thursday. Formation chances stay low at 10% in 48 hours and 20% over 7 days.

Another tropical wave is set to roll off the coast of West Africa by Friday. Slow development is possible as it drifts west-northwest into the Atlantic this weekend. Right now, odds are low—0% in 48 hours and 20% in 7 days—but we’ll keep a close eye on it.

Hurricane season is still in full swing, so now is the time to review your plans and stay weather aware. I’ll continue to bring updates as these systems evolve.

16/09/2025

Forecast for Tuesday calls for another warm and humid day across much of the Southeast. Inland areas from Georgia through Tennessee will see afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. The heat and humidity will make it feel more like midsummer even as we move deeper into September.

Closer to the Atlantic coast, conditions turn more unsettled. Moisture moving inland will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the Carolinas and parts of Virginia. Flood watches are in effect along portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coasts where heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding, particularly in low lying and poor drainage areas. Coastal communities should stay alert for periods of heavy rain and rough surf, while inland locations remain mostly dry and hot.

Southeast Weather

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