Kena Solutions (2026)

14/09/2026

"Forbidden fruit tastes sweetest"

The old expression people always e@ t what they can have seems apropos this morning. The warning shots were fired over the weekend, investors appear to be choosing to investigate further this morning. - murph

The Sopranos Meet Shakespeare in the Garden of Eden

Adam, my Adam, prithee answer my plea
Come join me in savoring the fruits of yon tree
Eve always cool as home made gabagool
Why mess with the big guy’s one sacred rule

Adam don't accuse me of protesting too much
But a kingdom for an apple sounds easy enough
Eve there's a lot for us both to consider
Like taking advice from a wise guy who slithers.

Adam doth these leaves make my lithe form look fat
Eve they cover all the best pieces, wad up wit dat?
Adam thy visage is a tempest of doom
Eve I fear we screwed up bada-bing bada-boom.

Adam everything seems different betwixt thou and me
Since we ate of the fruit of that forbidden tree.
Twas the promise of equal footing Adam forsooth
Eve that snaky rat bastard wasn't telling the truth
- murph

Stock futures fall as investors weigh calls for AI slowdown, oil gains

CNBC: Global AI-related stocks fell after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown of the development of AI capabilities, with other major tech figures backing the proposal.

Amodei said in an essay on Saturday that AI companies need to slow the pace of innovation for their best models due to safety risks, and told CBS News on Sunday that the "toughest dilemma" about such a proposal is what would happen if China did not do the same.

Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a Saturday interview an IPO this year would be "ill-advised."

Elsewhere, oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia shuttered a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3% at above $103 per barrel, while Brent crude futures gained 4% to above $108.

The Federal Reserve gathers for its September policy meeting this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a roughly 88% likelihood of a rate hike, according to CME's FedWatch tool. - CNBC

Down the Shore, after a tough few days, it was nice to see that there are some constants, things that don’t change, that give us wings while grounding us. The Howe Street crew of teachers, friends, runners, swimmers Jersey Shore Triathlon Club were a breath of fresh air this morning. Thank you.

May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

14/09/2026

THE BARNACLE — WEEK TO BE…

The Market Reopens. We Remember.

There is no expiration date on grief.

And there shouldn’t be.

Twenty-five years ago, in the pages of And Then the Rain Came, I wrote:

“America needs to heal and to heal it must reach out, unite, grieve, and demonstrate unity as a nation. The markets will reopen, companies will open their doors and prosper again. They always do.

We cannot bring back the dead, but it is our responsibility as humans to let the families of the victims know that they are not alone. It is a sign of respect and a reaffirmation of our humanity.”

— Joe Murphy
September 14, 2001, 7:00 p.m.

Those words weren’t about predicting the market.

They were about recognizing something much bigger:

Life would go on.

And it did.

Tomorrow, Monday, the market reopens.

The opening bell will ring. Companies will open their doors. Traders will take their seats. The numbers will start moving.

And we will do what we always do.

Watch CPI.
Watch PPI.
Watch the Fed.
Watch rates and yields.
Watch earnings, jobs and economic growth.

The numbers matter.

But some things cannot be measured.

Grief doesn’t have a CPI.
Memory doesn’t have a PPI.
Healing doesn’t have a Fed Funds rate.

And there is no expiration date on any of them.

So this week, as the market reopens, let’s remember that moving forward is not the same as forgetting.

We don’t have to live in the past.

But we do have to carry its lessons forward.

We remember the people.
We remember the families.
We remember the unity.
And we remember.

The market will reopen.

Life will go on.

Never Forget.

— Murph

#911

09/09/2026

Lighting strikes twice or once bitten, twice shy

The market took it on the chin yesterday. I don’t think it was a knock out type punch, but it did hurt, prompted a standing-8 count while demonstrating that one needs to cover up or get knocked out. I know one cannot build a Long-term investment case on the vagaries of the price of crude oil, but tell that to the average Joe Schmo and see how far you get. Remember, we are currently treading through an earnings desert, and the slightest news item “sets em off” as my mother used to say. - murph

Stock futures fall as Brent crude tops $100 per barrel

CNBC: Stock futures traded lower on Wednesday after a losing day in the previous session, as oil prices continue their ascent.

The Dow dropped 1.2% on Tuesday, marking its worst day in almost three weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly climbed above the closely watched 4.8% level on Tuesday as rising oil prices added to concerns about inflation. The action in yields further weighed down stocks in the session.

It's "a little bit of a speed bump," said Kara Murphy, investment chief at Kestra Investment Management, on CNBC's "Closing Bell." "There's a little bit less to focus on with the earnings front, so I think the market has sort of shifted its attention now to the risk side."

There are no major economic data releases or corporate earnings reports slated for release on Wednesday. Later in the week, traders will monitor readings on inflation for signals on how the Federal Reserve may move interest rates. - CNBC

Down the Shore a pod of dolphins set the scene for a glorious sunrise. God and life is good.

May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

08/09/2026

The September Effect Pile on

September has historically been the weakest month of the year for equities, dating back to 1928, not a record to brag about, but hey, it is what it is. Well, 2026 looks like it may not buck that trend mainly because of outside forces, Iran, Canadian tariffs, a newish, maybe hawkish Fed Chair, and a market that has been pretty red hot for quite some time now. Don’t get me wrong, I am not cheering for or putting next month’s rent on a soft September, I am pointing out that it is something one needs to be aware of. Forearmed, forewarned and all that good stuff. Later this week, we will get a first inflation/interest rate blush with CPI and some other tasty economic releases on deck. - murph

CNBC: S&P 500 futures fall to start shortened week as oil prices climb

S&P 500 futures fell early Tuesday to kick off a shortened week of trading, with Wall Street keeping tabs on the U.S.-Iran war as well as rising trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.

The Fed is due to hold a monetary policy meeting next week. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will hike rates by a quarter-percentage point after the meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Those odds could change this week with wholesale and consumer inflation data due Thursday and Friday, respectively. They could also be impacted by another jump in oil prices as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise.

Traders also have to contend with brewing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada once again. Retaliatory tariffs from Canada on about $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect on Tuesday. President Donald Trump on Monday said ahead of the new duties that Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier can't sell in the U.S. unless Canada begins making its products in the U.S. CNBC

Down the Shore, like the market, there was a little bit of a chill in the air. Clouds were darker, waves were heavier and louder. But just like the market, this is a first blush, sunrise moment.

May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

04/09/2026

The patience of Job(e)

“Honesty is such a lonely word
Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard
And mostly what I need from you”
- Billy Joel

Futures are down and investors are squirrelly because of the jobs report!, “Say it ain’t so, Joe.” Does miss by a country mile sound familiar or enough to get anyone off the dime this morning - particularly considering the fact that we had such a cushy up day yesterday. This type of behavior reminds me of the coaching experience; “ The games are easy, it’s the grind of the months of practice that gets to you.” That and when after months of practice, the team goes on the pitch and makes the same mistakes. When are we going to get reported and revised in the same ballpark? - murph

Dow futures fall after much stronger-than-expected jobs report

In Thursday's regular trading, the three major averages rose. The 30-stock Dow gained more than 600 points, or 1.2%, and posted its best day since Aug. 4. The S&P 500 climbed more than 1%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4%.

U.S. stocks caught a tailwind as Treasury yields pulled back after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be "inclined" to support holding rates at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the central bank's Sept. 15-16 meeting.

Stocks are on pace for a winning week. The S&P 500 is on track for a 0.5% advance, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a 0.7% gain. The Dow is heading for a 0.2% jump.

Down the Shore we will let our Parrot Nation flags fly, waste away in margaritaville, and hopefully “fall in with a chum with a bottle of rum, and stay up drinking all night.

“Mother, mother ocean, I have heard you call
Wanted to sail upon your waters since I was three feet tall
You've seen it all, you've seen it all

Watched the men who rode you switch from sails to steam
And in your belly, you hold the treasures few have ever seen
Most of 'em dream, most of 'em dream”
- Jimmy Buffett
May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

03/09/2026

Waiting for your pitch

Successful hitting in baseball and investing is founded on the same principle, patience, discipline, and selectivity — in other words “don’t swing at every pitch. Pitch being the operative term here. The nay sayers pitch, based on rising rates syndrome are tap dancing this morning on the “you see wha had happing” routine. While the “Notes From the Underground” musings from the Fed suggest that a rate increase in September is well, kinda, sorta out and still open for debate so let’s do something totally radical and adopt a “wait-and-see” approach; “another fine mess, Stanley!” The whole thing reminds me of that classic British cosmetics series “Never Mind the Quality, Feel the Width.” We got our wish, we are living in interesting times. - murph

Stock futures rise as falling Treasury yields signal less pressure on Fed to hike rates

CNBC: Equity futures moved higher on Thursday, while Treasury yields pulled back, with traders monitoring oil prices and awaiting fresh U.S. employment data later in the week.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield last traded around 4.75%, seeing declines after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be "inclined to support" holding rates steady barring any surprises in upcoming inflation data. On Wednesday, the yield hit its highest level since November 2023.

Bets among fed funds futures traders that the central bank would raise rates in a couple weeks fell to 54.6% after his statement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That's down from 63.2% a day ago.

Wall Street is coming off a winning session, with the major U.S. stock indexes snapping three-day losing streaks. The 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.41%, the highest level since January 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.818%, the highest mark since November 2023. Both ended the day off their highs, however.

Though investors are worried about inflation, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC on Wednesday he sees higher Treasury yields as the result of solid economic prospects following record-breaking corporate profits in the second quarter. - CNBC

Down the Shore, like the market, “Patience” was the order of the day. The sun took its own sweet time to make an appearance, but when it did, it was definitely worth the wait.

May the road rise to meet you

GRMA ☘️

02/09/2026

BUY THE DIP — OR BE THE DIP?
An evening at Jack Falstaff’s Bar

The Barnacle wandered into Jack Falstaff’s bar and found Shakespeare already three pints deep.

Barnacle:
“Bill, I’ve got a question. The market is down. Do we buy the dip?”

Shakespeare:
“There is a tide in the affairs of men…”

Barnacle:
“I knew you were going there.”

Shakespeare:
“Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.”

Barnacle:
“Exactly! Buy the dip!”

From behind the bar came a booming voice.

Falstaff:
“Hold your horses, Barnacle.”

He polished a glass.

Falstaff:
“The better part of valor is discretion.”

Barnacle:
“Discretion? We’re talking stocks, not sword fights.”

Falstaff:
“Have you ever watched a stock fall 20%?”

Barnacle:
“Of course.”

Falstaff:
“And then another 20%?”

Barnacle:
“…Yes.”

Falstaff:
“And then another?”

Barnacle:
“Okay, Jack. Point taken.”

Shakespeare leaned forward.

Shakespeare:
“On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”

Barnacle:
“See! He agrees with me.”

Falstaff:
“No. He agrees with me.”

Silence.

Another round was poured.

And somewhere between the second pint and the fourth market analogy, the Barnacle realized the problem with buying the dip.

The phrase makes it sound easy.

Market down?

Buy.

Market down more?

Buy more.

Market down again?

Well… it’s an even better bargain now.

Except markets don’t send you an invoice telling you when the sale is over.

Sometimes a dip is a buying opportunity.

Sometimes it is the market telling you:

“Not yet.”

The trick isn’t simply recognizing that prices are lower.

It’s figuring out why they’re lower.

Is the tide temporarily out?

Or is the tide actually changing?

That’s where Falstaff’s discretion earns its keep.

Because there is a huge difference between buying weakness and catching a falling knife.

Shakespeare tells us to take the current when it serves.

Falstaff tells us to use discretion.

And the Barnacle?

I’m watching the water.

Because I’ve learned one thing after spending a lifetime around markets:

You don’t have to catch the bottom.

You just have to catch the right tide.

So, should we buy the dip?

Maybe.

But before reaching for the checkbook, ask the question every investor should ask:

**“Is this the tide coming in…

or am I just standing on the beach getting my feet wet?”**

The drinks are on Falstaff.

The decision is on us.

Barnacle spin:
The market doesn’t reward bravery. It rewards being right.

02/09/2026

Come on in, the water’s fine

"The good seaman weathers the storm he cannot avoid and avoids the storm he cannot weather." — Unknown

The market has been swimming against a very strong current for the past few days, but fortunately the tide appears to have turned today. For how long?, who knows but as Willie the Shake once said;
“There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.”

I wonder if “the Bard” was way ahead of the game in the “buy the dip” lark. Beats me. - murph

Stocks rise for first time in four sessions as Treasury yields take breather

CNBC: Stocks rose on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields took a breather from the recent run-up that sent them to multiyear highs.

Stocks have been pressured lately by elevated bond yields as traders worried about the impact of rising oil prices on inflation. The S&P 500, as well as the tech-heavy Nasdaq and 30-stock Dow, are currently on track to snap a three-day losing streak.

The major averages saw gains Wednesday as the latest rise in yields eased, with the 10-year yield last trading around the flatline.

"The key driver is oil," Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said to CNBC, noting that the market is rangebound in a seasonally weak period. "That's why the market is able to get a little rally today, because oil's topping out."

Hatfield said while he doubts there will be a peace deal between Iran and the U.S., the recent rise in oil prices may be short lived. He expects the S&P 500 to bottom out at 7,500.

"We believe oil will trend down over the next six months as non-OPEC production ramps up and alternative oil routes develop," he added.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC Wednesday that more than 17 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. That's the highest level since the Iran war broke out in February. - CNBC

Down the Shore a handful of a local triathlete club Jersey Shore triathletes decided that since they were already there and suited up, why not go for a dip — sounds eerily similar to the dilemma investors faced this morning. Better men and women than me, good on them.

May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

01/09/2026

Where’s the $20 Bucks Ya Owe Me?

September is here.

Again.

Another month.
Another first trading day.
Another chance for the market to remind us that history is a guide, not a guarantee.

And if you’ve ever watched the Three Stooges argue over “Where’s the $20 bucks ya owe me?”, you already understand September trading.

“You owe me $20.”

“Here’s $10. Now I owe you $10.”

“You owe me $20.”

“Here’s the $10 you owe me.”

And around and around they go until…

“We’re all even!”

Except nobody really knows how.

That feels a little like the stock market heading into September.

August gave investors another good month. The S&P 500 finished higher for the fifth consecutive month, while September arrives with its well-earned reputation as the market’s historically weakest month. (Opening Bell Daily)

But here’s the Barnacle problem with simply saying:

“September is the worst month. Sell.”

Markets don’t work that way.

The economy owes the market lower rates.

The Fed owes investors clarity.

Inflation owes consumers some relief.

AI owes investors proof that all this spending eventually becomes earnings.

And investors?

We’re still waiting for somebody to pay the $20 bucks they owe us.

Meanwhile, the market keeps passing the same $10 bill around.

Oil goes up.

Yields go up.

Stocks go down.

Then somebody whispers “Fed cut.”

Stocks go up.

Then somebody whispers “inflation.”

Stocks go down.

“Here’s $10. I owe you $10.”

You get the picture.

The danger in September isn’t September itself.

It’s believing the calendar owes us a particular outcome.

It doesn’t.

The market doesn’t owe us a September selloff.

It doesn’t owe us a September rally.

It doesn’t owe us anything.

And that’s the lesson from the Stooges:

When everybody owes everybody something, the important question isn’t who owes whom.

It’s who actually has the cash.

In markets, that means earnings, liquidity, economic growth and ultimately—cash flow.

So as September opens, I’m keeping the Barnacle close to the beach and my eyes on the money.

Because somewhere out there…

somebody still owes me $20 bucks.

And I’d really like to know where it is.

01/09/2026

September Effect

"Since 1928, the S&P 500 has produced an average return of negative 1.17% in September. It has fallen in September in 56% of years since then." — The Motley Fool

“Out on the road today
I saw a deadhead sticker on a cadillac
A little voice inside my head said:
"Don't look back, you can never look back"
I thought I knew what love was
What did I know?
Those days are gone forever
I should just let them go but … (see yesterday’s Boys of Summer Are Gone)
- Don Henley

Stocks fall to start September as traders look to yields, rising oil prices

CNBC: Stocks fell on Tuesday, the first day of September, as inflation worries and elevated oil prices lifted bond yields in the U.S. and abroad, raising concern about whether the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy later this month.

Yields around the world have been rising recently as traders worry that persistently higher oil prices may drive inflation and impact the Fed's interest rate path. The central bank is slated to meet next in two weeks. On top of that, September has been a historically bad month for stocks.

"The market is exhibiting signs of nervousness across myriad of indicators," traders at Goldman Sachs wrote, pointing to new American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey data. "This attitude toward risk is not just theoretical, investors are quite literally putting their money where their mouth is in terms of portfolio risk allocations."- CNBC

Down the Shore:

“Nobody on the road
Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air
The summer's out of reach”
- Don Henley

May the road rise to meet you
GRMA ☘️

Kena Solutions

14/09/2026

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