Kena Solutions (2025)

09/07/2025

Sunny with a chance of Fed showers around 2pm

Predictions show a steady low
You're feeling just the same
But seasons come and seasons go
I'll make you smile again

If you don't believe me
Take me by the hand
Can't you feel you're warming up?
Yeah, I'm your weatherman
- Delbert McClinton

Lately the market has had a bad case of being “A Victim of Life’s Circumstances… half the time ending up some place I don’t belong.” Bail money for the t market was set by an old friend, Nvidia, as it once again came to the rescue and could potentially be the “beginning of a beautiful friendship.” But every party has to have a wet rag and FedSpeak at 2:00 this afternoon is ore than happy to play kill joy prom pro proctors. - murph

CNBC: In addition to watching further tariff policy developments on Wednesday, traders will be monitoring the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its last meeting.

Dow rebounds after 2 days of losses, Nvidia leads gain as it reaches $4 trillion market value

Stocks rose Wednesday, led by tech, as Nvidia reached a major milestone, while investors monitor the latest tariff updates from President Donald Trump.

Nvidia shares traded 2% higher, making it the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion. Other major tech names also rose, including Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet.

Those moves came as traders seemingly shrugged off the latest tariff-related headlines of the week.

On Tuesday, Trump said in a Truth Social post that there would be no change or extensions on the raft of duties he announced on those nations, which include Japan and South Korea. The new tariff rates range from 25% to 40% and are set to begin on Aug. 1.

Trump on Tuesday also announced a 50% levy on copper imports and hinted that further sector-specific tariffs will soon be announced. He threatened Tuesday afternoon to impose up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S., but said that he will "give people about a year, year and a half" until the duties go into effect.

"The tariff announcement was a reminder that markets are not out of the woods. The White House has not really achieved their goals on trade, and that could be a continued source of volatility," said Scott Helfstein, Global X head of investment strategy. - CNBC

Down the Shore for the past few days it has been a fielders choice of where the weather was headed. “Life is about attitude and how we choose to interpret situations. Is the glass half empty or half full, the weather forecast partially cloudy or partially sunny? Simple choices can make or break a day. Choose wisely and enjoy the day.

May the road rise to meet you. GRMA ☘️

09/07/2025

Optimistic individual investors are helping shape the market, Jim Cramer says

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday suggested individual investors are helping to drive market action, saying they are more optimistic than institutional investors.
"The individual investor has not lost faith," he said. "They've practically propelled us the whole way from the post Liberation Day lows."

Cramer referenced recent data from Bank of America analysts that said Wall Street has just seen its biggest week of selling in almost a year. The selling was led by institutional clients, the report said, and corporate buybacks slowed to their lowest weekly level since 2023. The report also indicated that private clients have been doing more buying, even as stocks headed higher.

Individual investors believe that stocks represent long-term value, Cramer said, and he suggested they aren’t afraid the Trump administration will somehow tank the economy. He also said they want to use the market as a way to save, rather than trade in and out.

This attitude is markedly different than that of institutional sellers, Cramer said, and the difference is “only going to get more pronounced.” He suggested that institutional sellers are worried about Donald Trump’s new tariff policies and megabill, and they believe that his inconsistency makes it risky to own stocks.
Institutions can be too cynical and concerned with the near-term, Cramer asserted. While they’re focused on the actions of the Federal Reserve, individual investors are paying attention to individual companies’ actions, he said.

“Look, there’s nothing wrong with the short-term trading the institutions are doing,” he said. “But let me give you the bottom line – when I first walked down Wall Street…the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at about 1,000. Now it’s at 44,000. Perhaps the weight of evidence says you should just keep buying and just stick with it. It’s been right for decades, why should the individuals stop now?”

08/07/2025

The devil is in the details

The market is in meerkat mode this morning as investors try to follow the bouncing ball of tariff deadlines. “When God made time he made plenty of it,” but this hurry up and wait game is getting a little old. Hey, I’m just the messenger and believe me I do believe in the “long game” strategy, but “come on man,” let’s get the finger out and get down to “bidness.” Thankfully, the economic calendar is not overly crazy this week, but a quick peek over the fence to next week is quite a different story as we head into the teeth of what can be a particularly painful part of the process. Open wide and say Aahh. - murph

Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street looks to recover from tariff sell-off

CNBC: Stocks were set to rebound from a steep Monday sell-off as President Donald Trump pushed the tariff deadline once again and signaled flexibility on that timing as well with countries willing to negotiate.

His comments came after he posted letters to countries announcing new tariffs on their respective imports. The countries hit by new duties are Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Tunisia.

Stocks sold off Monday following Trump's posts. But Tuesday's market action reflect the notion that traders don't expect the latest U.S. tariffs to be as strict as initially feared, with many expecting that the worst from the trade war has now passed.

"If you go through the details, I don't even know if anybody understands the difference between what was announced today, what was there previously, and if it will actually be implemented, and which companies it actually impacts," Trivariate Research CEO Adam Parker said Monday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."

"So, I think it's just a little bit of selling as we got the highs, and kind of recalibrating before July earnings season," Parker added. "But I don't think this is the sign of a new regime at all." - CNBC

Down the Shore, like the market, staying on the fence, while pleasant, is not always an option. It is a requirement as we try to get our bearings for the next part of the journey, but if one stays there too long the chance of getting splinters rises dramatically.

May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

08/07/2025

Stocks Slip as Trump Threatens Tariffs on Several Trade Partners

CNBC: US equities tumbled Monday as trade fears returned in full force, with President Donald Trump set to impose 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea, and even higher levies on South Africa and Myanmar.

The S&P 500 Index closed down 0.8%, with nine of the 11 sectors in red and declines led by consumer discretionary and materials. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.9%. The Dow was trading just steps away from hitting a new all-time high before Monday’s retreat.

Trump’s latest move effectively offers another extension to his tariff deadline — set to be formalized in an executive order signed later Monday — that pushes the looming July 9 deadline until at least the beginning of August.

Still, market pros said the reaction in stocks were far milder compared to the moves in early April when the tariffs were initially announced because traders aren’t fully convinced that the levies will become effective.

“This is tariff triggered profit taking following last week’s record highs,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading. “The market still does not believe President Trump will follow though on the Liberation Day tariff rates. The extension reinforces that thinking.”

“The degree of drawdown is more reflective of uncertainty and confusion than the fear of Liberation Day,” said Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide. “With markets now embedding higher expectations, the reaction to news is likely to be more balanced versus the ‘glass half full’ reactions since April’s low.” - CNBC

03/07/2025

S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records on jobs data; Nvidia market cap nears $4 trillion

Reuters: Wall Street rallied on Thursday to record closing highs, as chipmaker Nvidia rose closer to a $4 trillion valuation and a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report cheered investors, who shrugged off dimming chances for an interest rate cut this month.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, notching a third week of gains. The Dow closed up 0.77%, only 0.41% away from its own record.

Trading volume was light in a shorter session on the eve of Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday.

"We are seeing a real bout of irrational exuberance; the stock market is very biased towards optimism," said Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group in New York.

"But there's some basis for it. I think there is some level of relief because the jobs report was not as weak as it could have been."

The rally has been fueled by retail investors, who are largely ignoring the inflationary pressure on the horizon, uncertainty around tariffs and "are focused on the tangible, which is today's jobs report," she said.

Traders quickly priced out chances of an interest-rate cut in July, with the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction in September at 68%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool, down from 74% a week ago. - Reuters.

03/07/2025

Labor market “does a solid”

And I'll be taking care of business (every day)
Taking care of business (every way)
I've been taking care of business (it's all mine)
Taking care of business and working overtime, work out
Bachman-Turner Overdrive

Apologies for putting that song in your head at this hour of the morning but it is a Road Trip favorite you can blast on this shortened, get to the beach early, day. U.S. futures popped early and the market followed suit. Traditionally, the day before the 4th was a “WFH” before the concept was even invented type of day. Trading floors allowed like bowling alleys and volume was kind of nonexistent. If you are on the road today, please stay safe and give yourself extra time to get where you are going as there are ‘Nasty Weather” travel alerts for the weekend.
- murph

Stock futures pop after a better-than-expected June jobs report

CNBC: U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 poised for another record, after a better-than-expected jobs report fueled optimism the U.S. economy was hanging tough despite fast-changing trade policy and geopolitics.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. That's above the Dow Jones forecast from economists for 110,000 and the upwardly revised 144,000 in May. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, while economists had projected an increase to 4.3%.

Market gains were contained as the strong jobs report also spurred a big spike in Treasury yields and reduced expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in a roughly 93% chance that the central bank will hold rates steady at its meeting later this month, per CME Group's FedWatch tool.

"Once again, the labor market defies expectations, showing not just resilience but real strength. It may be time to stop calling it surprising and start calling it solid," said Karen Manna, investment director and portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. "Markets may begin to reprice in response to this momentum. With a series of near-term events on the calendar likely to narrow the range of possible outcomes, the fog of uncertainty is beginning to lift."

Thursday's report comes a ay after ADP released data showing that private payrolls decreased by 33,000 last month, raising fears that perhaps the economy was starting to stumble under the weight of rapid policy changes out of Washington. Thursday's official government data knocked down that notion.
Investors are also following along the progress on Trump's tax megabill, which finally passed the Senate Tuesday and has since returned to the House. The bill is now headed for a final vote after the Republican-controlled House advanced the legislation Thursday.

Down the Shore, like the market, we are shutting down early and planning on kicking back and enjoying the beach and our families. Happy 4th of July.

May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

03/07/2025

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Wednesday night as traders braced for June's big jobs report.

CNBC: S&P 500 futures were fractionally higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near flat. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 29 points, or less than 0.1%.

Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 rose 0.47% to notch a record close. The broad market index also posted a fresh all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq Composite also rallied 0.94% to a record close. The 30-stock Dow trailed behind with a narrow loss of 0.02%.

The moves followed an announcement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social that the U.S. had struck a trade deal with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on imports from the country. Goods that originated in another country but were transferred to Vietnam for final shipment to the U.S. will be levied 40%.

Traders are now awaiting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' June nonfarm payrolls reading. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect that the economy added 110,000 jobs last month. That compares to May's gain of 139,000. Economists also see the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May.

If June's jobs report disappoints, the market could rotate away from more speculative technology stocks into value names, according to Jay Hatfield, founder and CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

"Tomorrow could be a little dicey," he told CNBC. "The tradeoff between tech stocks being down and value going up — a lot of times the overall market will go down because tech stocks are 40% of the market."

On the other hand, a disappointing report could mean that the Federal Reserve may be more keen to cut rates earlier than previously expected, possibly as early as July, Hatfield added.

Investors are also following along the progress on Trump's tax megabill, which finally passed the Senate on Tuesday. The bill has returned to the House, where negotiations among Republican lawmakers remain heated. - CNBC.

02/07/2025

Into every great man’s (market’s) life, a little rain must fall

U.S. stock futures saw it was raining this morning so it pulled the covers over its head and stayed in the bed. The market followed suit and opened down 100 in the early going. This morning’s hurdle de jour was a missed jobs report which although a pretty important economic indicator, is as about as reliable as weather forecasts, which will keep us on “car paths only” this afternoon, that is if they even let us out on the course. Fingers crossed on the weather and the “business as usual revision” to the jobs report. The current market is like a round of golf, its not the end of the world if you land in the sand trap, it is if it takes you two to three attempts to get out of it. “Put me down for a five.” - murph

S&P 500 futures lost steam Wednesday after a new report showed private payrolls surprisingly decreased in June, raising concern over the state of the U.S. economy.

CNBC: The private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month, according to the latest report by ADP. That marks the first monthly decline in ADP's payrolls report since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected payrolls to grow by 100,000.

The report comes with the stock market near record highs despite concerns that lingering trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries could slow U.S. and global economic growth.

The market may also be taking some solace in growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 25% chance of the fed lowering rates at its July meeting, up from 20% a day before.

"We, frankly, have been seeing a weakening of the labor market for months and months now, and I always wondered if it would take a negative payrolls print to get the Fed to pay a little bit more attention to the labor market as opposed to the inflation picture," Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, told CNBC. "This is, on that front, what will hopefully catch some attention."

Wall Street is coming off a mixed session, with the Dow surging 400 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower after a broad decline in tech shares. The Dow got a boost as investors rotated into materials and health care stocks.

"We expect to see more volatility in fixed income, even once they get the bill passed, whatever that looks like," said Jose Rasco, HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management Americas CIO on "Closing Bell: Overtime." "That's going to bleed over into the equity markets."

Still, this turbulence is likely to be short-lived, he said. "Once these things get resolved and once the [Federal Reserve] gets back in gear, there's a lot of upside here," Rasco said. - CNBC

Down the shore, like the market, while we are grinning and bearing yet another bout of wet weather, we console ourselves with “Rainy mornings, while inconvenient, have a magic all of their own. Kind of like life when you think about it.”
May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

01/07/2025

US job market surprises with increased openings in May

* Job openings increase 374,000 to 7.769 million
* Hires decline 112,000 to 5.503 million
* Manufacturing remains subdued in June

WASHINGTON, July 1 (Reuters) - U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in May, but a decline in hiring added to signs that the labor market had shifted into lower gear amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs on imports, with a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal duties drawing to an end.

Anxiety over trade policy and ebbing labor market momentum was underscored by a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday, with manufacturers variously describing the business environment as "hellacious" and "too volatile" for long-term procurement decisions.

Economists were mostly dismissive of the surprise rise in job openings, noting that the bulk of the increase was in the leisure and hospitality sector.

"We suspect underlying demand for new workers continues to recede amid growing signs of consumer spending fatigue," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

Economists say the lack of clarity on what happens after July 9, when the 90-day pause on President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs expires, had left businesses unable to make long-term plans. A 90-day temporary reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China is due to end in mid-August. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that trade partners could still face sharply higher tariffs next Wednesday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated the central bank plans to "wait and learn more" about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates.

A survey from the Conference Board showed the share of consumers who viewed jobs as being "plentiful" dropped to the lowest level in more than four years in June.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the government's closely watched employment report on Thursday to show the jobless rate increased to 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 110,000 jobs after advancing by 139,000 in May. The employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.

With opportunities becoming scarce, the tide of resignations has ebbed. The number of people quitting their jobs rose 78,000 to 3.293 million, lifting the quits rate, which is seen a gauge of labor market confidence to 2.1% from 2.0% in April.

"We do expect the June employment report to show a slower pace of job growth and an uptick in the unemployment rate," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

01/07/2025

does anybody really know what time it is?
(Care) does anybody really care?
Chicago

June definitely changed her tune and July? well it looks like she’s destined to fly. I cannot believe that it is July 1st. Where in the “Wide, wide world a sports” did the time go? They say time flies when you are having a good time and if you are in the market you are digging life and “Surfing USA. Yeah, there are Debbie Downers and one day they will be right, just like the broken clock, which is currently being personified as a broken record, but right now it’s let’s have ‘Fun fun fun until big daddy takes the momentum away. - murph.

Stocks slip to kick off second half of 2025

MarketWatch: The major U.S. stock-market indexes opened lower on Tuesday, pulling back slightly from the record closing highs set by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite the day before.

Despite the volatility seen in April due to tariffs, the stock market indexes had a pretty strong second quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 5% in the second quarter, while the S&P gained 10.6% and the Nasdaq gained around 17.8%. It was the Nasdaq's best quarter since the second quarter of 2020. - MarketWatch

Goldman and a September romance with rates
CNBC: Goldman Sachs now sees Fed cutting in September, rather than December
Goldman Sachs pulled forward its Federal Reserve rate-cut outlook to September, a tweak from its earlier call for a December reduction.

"The very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect," wrote David Mericle, chief U.S. economist, in a Monday report.

He added that while the labor market still appears healthy, it's become harder to find a job. "Both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls," Mericle wrote.

Goldman is penciling in three 25 basis point cuts in September, October and December, along with two more quarter-point reductions in 2026. That results in a terminal rate forecast of 3% to 3.25%, down from the firm's earlier call for 3.5% to 3.75%.

The current target range for the federal funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. - CNBC

Down the Shore the only numbers we are focused on right now are reported in degrees, temperature. Like the market, we had a tough go of it weather wise in Spring and now we have been landed smack dab in the middle of record heat waves. So we limit exposure to the sun, hydrate (beverage of choice), wear sunscreen and enjoy, because like is good.

I got some good friends that live down the street
Got a good lookin' woman with her arms 'round me
Live in a small town where it feels like home
I got everything I need, and nothin' that I don't
Homegrown
- Zac Brown Band
May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

01/07/2025

Stock futures tick lower after S&P 500 notches new record to cap winning second quarter

CNBC: In regular trading, the broad market S&P 500 advanced 0.52%, posting another record close, while the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite also rose to fresh all-time highs, rising 0.47%. The blue-chip Dow climbed 275.50 points, or 0.63%.

Monday's moves came after Canada walked back its digital services tax in an attempt to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. Ottawa's move to rescind the new levy comes after President Donald Trump said on Friday he would be "terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada."

Traders are hoping for deals between the U.S. and its trading partners, as Trump's 90-day reprieve on his steepest tariffs is set to expire next week.
Stocks have made an impressive comeback after suffering steep declines in April, after Trump's sweeping tariff policy pushed the S&P 500 near bear market territory. The major averages have since made a sharp turnaround, with the broad market index closing the second quarter with a 10.6% gain and the Nasdaq up nearly 18% in the period.

Though traders now head into the second half of the year with stocks at record highs, some remain optimistic the market could surge even higher in the months ahead.

"We think this is going to be a broader recovery," Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, said Monday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."

"We've gone through a massive rolling recession, and I think with the Fed cutting in the second half of this year or next year we can see a rolling recovery – because now there's quite a bit of pent-up demand, particularly in those interest rate sensitive parts of the market," he added. Those corners of the market include manufacturing and housing, the strategist said.

Traders are looking ahead to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index at 9:45 a.m. ET, which will give investors a read on the activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as ISM manufacturing report at 10 a.m. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will also be released Tuesday morning. - CNBC

29/06/2025

The Week That Was — Simple Twist of Fate or Leap of Faith

Dylan Blamed it on a “Simple Twist of Fate” while Margaret Shepard opines “Sometimes your only available transportation is a leap of faith.” The market, which ultimately appears to do whatever it wants to do is at record highs right now. “Fate says Whatever will be, will be. Faith says “Whatever I believe, I can achieve.” - AI. Investors are asking the market “Is you is or is you ain’t my baby?” Down the Shore, we finally have a glorious, sunny day. The Asian markets are already humming, but Im heading to the beach. As my mother always said, “the work will be waiting for your on Monday morning, go enjoy the weekend.

Edward Jones
Markets are back at all-time highs: Three factors driving the summer rally

Key takeaways:
Stock markets made fresh all-time highs last week, with both the S&P 500 and technology-heavy Nasdaq up about 5% year-to-date.
What is driving this market rally? We highlight three key factors: An easing of geopolitical tensions (and subsequent lower oil prices), a Fed that continues to signal lower interest rates are likely (albeit gradually), and the outsized rally in the mega-cap technology sector.

Three drivers of the summer rally

1) Geopolitical tensions easing, oil prices falling

Bottom line: As a result of the easing geopolitical tensions, oil and energy prices have fallen substantially over the last week. For example, U.S. WTI crude oil, which had risen over 20% in June to $75 per barrel, fell about 13% last week down to around $65 per barrel.1 This move lower in oil prices is not only supportive for consumers as we head into the summer driving season, but also a positive for keeping inflationary pressures contained. The fall in oil and energy has appeared to support market sentiment in recent days as well, helping drive equity markets toward new highs.

2) Federal Reserve still poised to cut rates by year-end
Bottom line:

Markets are now pricing in two or three rate cuts in 2025, according to CME FedWatch. And Treasury yields across the curve have moved lower, with both 2-year and 10-year yields well below highs from earlier this year. These moves lower in interest rates are positive for consumers and corporations and supportive of better stock-market sentiment broadly.

3) Technology sectors continue to lead the way higher

Bottom line: We believe that technology and AI sectors continue to deliver robust revenue and earnings growth, and we recommend investors continue to hold an equal-weight position in these areas. However, given the recent strong rally in the space, valuations have once again crept higher in tech sectors, and we would expect the pace of gains to moderate. We believe investors can complement tech and growth investments with sectors like health care and financials, which we think offer better valuations and the potential for catch-up if economic and earnings growth re-accelerates in the year ahead. - Edward Jones

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29/06/2025

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