Kena Solutions (2026)

06/01/2026

Old friends are best friends

The market took a well deserved rest this morning and stayed pretty close to the shore following yesterday’s record breaking run — looks like Santa delivered on that Rally. Something worth noting is that there was a change in the mix of the components that drove yesterday’s run. This feels like a continuation of our Weekly Recap year end piece titled “Out with the old — in with the old?” We have been talking/waiting for a sector rotation that would help offset some of the pressure on Big Tech. Who knows. 🤞 - murph

CBNC: Stock futures were near flat Tuesday, with the major averages set to take a breather after a rally in the previous session following the U.S.' capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and President Donald Trump's call for American energy giants to invest in the oil-rich nation.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 34 points, or 0.1%.

The 30-stock Dow closed at a record on Monday after the U.S. captured and ousted Maduro over the weekend, while Trump encouraged big investments from U.S. oil companies. Chevron and Exxon Mobilposted solid gains, and the S&P 500 energy sector posted its biggest one-day jump since July 8.

"Historically, headline-capturing geopolitical events can produce short-term volatility and falling equity prices," Tom O'Shea, director of research and investment strategy at Innovator ETFs, said. "However, in this instance, the S&P 500 rose on the first trading day following the operation, with energy stocks leading the gains on anticipation that U.S. companies may benefit from potential infrastructure rebuilding in Venezuela. Defense stocks, precious metals, and Bitcoin also rallied, suggesting a mixed investor response."

Energy stocks climbed again on Tuesday, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil gaining 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Halliburton advanced 0.2%, and SLB advanced 0.9%. - CNBC

Down the Shore, like the market we continue to look for a way forward in the belief that “the sun doesn’t shine on the same dog’s ass all the time,” but as long as it keeps doing, we are okay with that. Every day is a gift.

May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

05/01/2026

and away we go

Dow jumps nearly 600 points to close at a record as markets rally after U.S.-Venezuela action

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 594.79 points, or 1.23%, to close at 48,977.18. The 30-stock index also hit a new all-time high in the session. The S&P 500 advanced 0.64% and ended at 6,902.05. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.69%, settling at 23,395.82.

"The market is basically saying, 'We're going to focus on putting money back to work after doing tax-loss harvesting, doing portfolio realignments in the end of 2025, and then buying back into stocks early in 2026,'" Stovall continued. "Investors are still focusing on what the Fed is likely to do, what corporate profits will do. So far, it remains a risk-on environment."

Energy stocks led the gains on the notion the companies would benefit from rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure. Chevron surged 5.1% and was seen as the biggest beneficiary because of its current presence in Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Exxon Mobil added 2.2%. Shares of oilfield services companies that could aid the Venezuela energy rebuild like Halliburton and SLB moved higher by 7.8% and nearly 9%, respectively. The State Street Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) increased almost 3%.

Even with the bullish equities reaction, traders also added exposure to gold. Futures contracts tied to the precious metal rose 2.8% for their best day since Oct. 20. Bitcoin traded above $94,000. Financial stocks were higher as well, as those on Wall Street were betting on a strong U.S. economy this year. Shares of big bank Goldman Sachs and regional bank U.S. Bancorp jumped 3.7% and 2.9%, respectively.

"Maybe in the short term, it'll boost the price of oil because the question is surrounding the supply and delivery of oil," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said to CNBC. "Longer term, it could end up being an improvement because Venezuela represents only 1% of the world's oil supply, and they've been getting worse and worse over the years. Their infrastructure needs to be improved, and possibly that is something that the U.S. can help with."

05/01/2026

With the oil industry a rocking,’ Gold and Bitcoin come a knocking’

If you are surprised by the over 500 point round of applause for what happened in Venezuela, you have obviously not been paying attention. People have become news junkies, they thrive on it, instantaneously respond to it, and when the “center cannot hold,” the finger pointing begins. I think 2026 is going to be a year of trying to figure out the age old Wall Street dilemma; “Everyone knows where the money is, the trick is in figuring out where it is going.” This weekend’s event just highlighted that fact. Up to this past Friday, we were beginning to witness a broadening, sector rotation phenomenon that was seen as a healthy, if not long overdue remediation route. Throw the energy sector into the mix and we are off to the races. BTW, I’m not suggesting that gold and silver are the panacea, flight to quality solution, I am just recording what I am observing here. - murph

CNBC: S&P 500 futures rise after U.S. ousts Venezuela's Maduro; Chevron and energy stocks lead gain

S&P 500 futures were higher on Monday even after the U.S.' attack on Venezuela and capture of leader Nicolas Maduro as crude oil prices showed little reaction and investors bet the action would not lead to bigger geopolitical conflicts that upset markets.

"This is a significant geopolitical event though unlikely to be a major near-term market-mover," wrote Matthew Aks, policy analyst with Evercore ISI, in a note. "For now, investors are left to navigate a now-familiar landscape of Trump's likely purposeful ambiguity around his next steps."

hares of defense giants General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin each received a bit of a boost, with Trump's latest action showing quick military strikes would be a key part of his policy for dealing with geopolitical issues that arise.

Even with the bullish equities reaction, traders also hedged positions by adding exposure to gold. Futures contracts tied to the precious metal rose more than 2%. Bitcoin had traded back above $93,000.

This week, traders will look out for the release of the December jobs report on Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the economy added 54,000 jobs last month. CNBC

Down the Shore, like the market, the week began under a very ominous cloud that when left to its own devices turned into a wonder display of riches.

May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

04/01/2026

The Week That Was — Barnacle of Bay Head

The tide eased just enough this week to let us look back before it pulled us forward again. On one side of the shoreline, 2025 slipped beneath the horizon — a year of crosscurrents, shifting winds, and more than a few rogue waves. On the other, 2026 stood at the waterline, toes in the sand, daring us to wade in.

As the sun set on December 31, the beach told its familiar story. Footprints from a long year crisscrossed the sand — some hurried, some careful, some washed away entirely. Bottles were emptied, lanterns dimmed, and the last echoes of “remember when” drifted out with the tide. Whatever 2025 threw at us — calm seas or choppy swells — it’s now logged in the ship’s journal.

Then came midnight. Fireworks cracked over the Atlantic, reflections dancing on the water like fresh possibilities. January 1 arrived not with answers, but with a clean shoreline and an open forecast. The ocean didn’t promise smooth sailing — it never does — but it did promise movement. And that’s enough.

From the Barnacle’s perch, the lesson is timeless: markets change, weather turns, and years come and go, but the rhythm remains. Respect the tide, mind the currents, and keep your balance when the deck gets slick. Some things are best left behind with the old year; others are worth carrying forward, packed carefully for the next voyage.

So here’s to waving goodbye to 2025 — lessons learned, barnacles scraped — and to welcoming 2026 with a steady hand on the tiller and eyes on the horizon. Same beach. New year. Let’s see what the tide brings next. 🌊

04/01/2026

The Week That Was — Out with the old, in with the old?

Traders appear to have started the new year with a “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” or “dance with the one who brung you” mentality.” Tech shares got us here, so let’s continue to “go to the whip” on those and see how far they can take us. AI, wrapped in the guise of the Magnificent 7, s beginning to look like it is open to bringing on a few new members, and AI itself is beginning to take off the training wheels and go from concept to application. As we wrote a few days ago, we see 2026 as the Dawning of the age of AI.

2026 — The Age of AI
When the moon is in the Seven names
And “Alphabet” aligns with “Wiz”
Then AI will guide the markets
And man that’s cool for biz - murph

AI Wrap Up
* Major Indices: The S&P 500 closed out 2025 with a return of around 16-18%, the third consecutive year of double-digit gains, though less than 2023 or 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also posted strong annual performances.
* Key Drivers: The "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks (such as Nvidia and Alphabet) extended their dominance, contributing significantly to the S&P 500's returns. The artificial intelligence (AI) trade was a primary driver, broadening out from just chip stocks to companies involved in data centers and energy infrastructure.

03/01/2026

Economic releases and how they fit into the K-economy

“Imitation is the highest form of ChatGPT-ery.” hashtag

The K-Economy 101

Upper K: Higher-income households, asset owners, capital-intensive firms, pricing power.

Lower K: Lower-to-middle income workers, renters, small businesses, interest-rate sensitive sectors.

Middle / Inflection: Data that can tilt either direction depending on trend and composition.

Where the 10 Key Economic Releases Fit

Upper K (Resilient / Benefiting)

These tend to look “fine” even when stress is building elsewhere:

Nonfarm Payrolls (headline jobs)

Job growth often masks quality issues (multiple jobs, part-time, services-heavy).
Asset markets cheer the headline even as lower-wage workers struggle.

GDP (headline growth)

Supported by government spending, capex, and high-margin sectors.
Can stay positive while real household pressure builds underneath.

ISM Services PMI

Reflects white-collar, professional, and higher-margin service activity.
More aligned with the upper-income consumption cohort.

Lower K (Under Pressure)

These releases most clearly capture stress in the bottom arm:

CPI (especially Core & Shelter)

Inflation hits necessities first: rent, food, insurance.
Lower-income households feel it immediately and disproportionately.

PCE Inflation (real consumption impact)

Shows erosion of real purchasing power even when spending holds up.
Often reveals substitution and trade-down behavior.

Initial Jobless Claims (trend, not weekly noise)

Early warning signal for labor stress.
Weakness shows up here before payrolls roll over.

The Hinge / Fork in the K

These determine whether the “K” widens or narrows:

Retail Sales (ex-autos, real terms)

Top-line strength often driven by higher-income spenders.
Real, volume-based sales tell you what the lower K is doing.

Average Hourly Earnings / Wage Growth

If wages lag inflation → K widens.
If real wages rise → K compresses.

Housing Starts & Existing Home Sales

High rates crush first-time buyers (lower K).
Owners with locked-in mortgages remain insulated (upper K).

Consumer Confidence / Sentiment (University of Michigan)

Inflation expectations and financial stress show up here first.
Confidence gaps by income cohort are classic K-economy signals.

In a Nutshell

The K-economy shows up when headline growth and jobs look fine (upper K), while inflation, housing, and real purchasing power quietly strain the lower K—until claims, confidence, and consumption force convergence.

03/01/2026

Changing of the guard — Passing the baton

A new year and a new way of thinking is a pretty positive way to head into 2026. Let us not forget what got us here, but let us look forward also because just like in life, “standing still is not an option.” I am not throwing out the baby (tech, particularly high tech) with the baby water here, but “Something had to give” and, thankfully, it looks like the trade off is a pretty positive and healthy one. I know, I know, most new year’s resolutions are toast by January 15th, but one can only hope. On this, the first trading day of the new year, I am feeling pretty psyched about the prospects for the market. I hesitate to say it, but organic growth is the preferred type and what I see in the market looks like it is evolutionary rather than revolutionary (AI has the market on that right now) and that is a bit of alright by me. - murph

S&P 500 closes higher on first trading day of 2026 as chip stocks offer small boost to the market

CNBC: Tech was the best trade of 2025, leading the broader market to sharp gain as investors continued to pile into AI names. The S&P 500 gained more than 16% last year, marking its third straight annual advance. The Nasdaq jumped more than 20% last year, and the 30-stock Dow advanced around 13%. The three benchmarks hit record highs last year.

"We think that you will have this ongoing rotation back and forth between tech and non-tech, but that overall we'll drift higher," said Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO. Hatfield, who has an 8,000 year-end target for the S&P 500, said the rally will be "better balanced" as regional banks outperform and tech stocks with expensive valuations such as Tesla start to lag.

"There are themes besides tech that are very likely to work this year," he continued.

Wall Street strategists expect more gains for the U.S. stock market in 2026. The CNBC Market Strategist Survey shows the average S&P 500 target for the year is 7,629, which implies upside of 11.4%.

Friday's session had some bright spots elsewhere in the broader market. Shares of Wayfair jumped around 6%, while RH increased roughly 8% after President Donald Trump on New Year's Eve postponed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities for a year. The order specifically delays a 30% duty on upholstered furniture and 50% levy on kitchen cabinets and vanities, keeping in place a 25% tariff on those goods that was imposed back in September. - CNBC

02/01/2026

Out with the old, in with the old?

Traders appear to have started the new year with a “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” or “dance with the one who brung you” mentality.” Tech shares got us here, so let’s continue to “go to the whip” on those and see how far they can take us. AI, wrapped in the guise of the Magnificent 7, s beginning to look like it is open to bringing on a few new members, and AI itself is beginning to take off the training wheels and go from concept to application. As we wrote a few days ago, we see 2026 as the Dawning of the age of AI.

2026 — The Age of AI
When the moon is in the Seven names
And “Alphabet” aligns with “Wiz”
Then AI will guide the markets
And man that’s cool for biz - murph

CNBC: Stock futures rise to kick off 2026 as tech shares pick up where they left off in 2025

Friday's gain marks a reversal from the first-day trading trend of the last few years. The S&P 500 finished lower on the first day of trading for each of the last three years. Going back to the 1950s, there is no discernible trend, with the first day finishing positive about 48% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Tech was the best trade of 2025, leading the broader market to sharp gain as investors continued to pile into AI names. The S&P 500 gained more than 16% last year, marking its third straight annual advance. The Nasdaq Composite jumped more than 20% last year, and the Dow climbed around 13%. The three benchmarks hit record highs last year.

"It was a strong year overall thanks to continued economic growth, optimism around AI, and more central bank rate cuts," Deutsche Bank strategists wrote. "However, those headline gains masked huge volatility, particularly in April when the Liberation Day tariff announcements sparked the 5th biggest two-day slump for the S&P 500 since WWII."

Wall Street strategists expect more gains for the U.S. stock market in 2026. The CNBC Market Strategist Survey shows the average S&P 500 target for the year is 7,629, which implies upside of 11.4%. - murph

Down the Shore, we are chillin,” not in a good way, it snowed again last night. Nothing to write home about, but enough to be annoying and beautiful at the same time — sounds a little like 2025.

May the road use to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

02/01/2026

The K-Shaped Economy in 2026 — Whose Money Is It Anyway?

“Imitation is the highest form of ChatGPT-ery.” hashtag

In 2026, the economy increasingly feels like a game show — where the score keeps changing, the rules aren’t evenly applied, and the biggest question on the board is:

Whose money is it anyway?

The answer depends on where you sit on the K.

Above the Line: Money With Momentum

On the upper arm of the K, money is working, compounding, and scaling.

Capital flows easily to areas with:

Access to investment dollars
Structural demand
Technology-driven productivity
Pricing power

Here, affordability isn’t a constraint — it’s a competitive advantage.
Investment dollars chase innovation, efficiency, and long-duration growth. The cost of capital matters less than what that capital can unlock.

Money here:

Buys time
Buys efficiency
Buys optionality

The Line That Matters: The Affordability Divide

The dashed line isn’t just economic — it’s behavioral.

Above it, spending decisions are strategic.
Below it, spending decisions are survival-based.

Affordability becomes the true separator:

What can be financed vs. what must be deferred
What scales vs. what stalls
What absorbs higher costs vs. what gets squeezed by them

This is where the game changes.

Below the Line: Money Under Pressure

On the lower arm of the K, money is spoken for before it arrives.

Here, rising costs meet limited pricing power:

Essentials crowd out discretion
Credit matters more than growth
Margins compress before demand returns

The question isn’t where to invest — it’s what can still be afforded.

Money here:

Covers necessities
Absorbs shocks
Reacts instead of compounds

The 2026 Reality

This isn’t about optimism vs. pessimism.
It’s about who controls the money — and who the money controls.

The K-shaped economy reminds us:

Growth doesn’t distribute evenly
Capital flows toward resilience and scale
Affordability dictates outcomes more than intent

So in 2026, the scoreboard matters less than the structure of the game.

Because once again, the defining question isn’t how much money there is —
it’s whose money is it anyway?

31/12/2025

*The Year Data Found Its Momentum*

Some years add up.
*2025 multiplied.*

Some years are about output, this one was about transformation.
If you were anywhere near our work this year, as a partner, intern, or community team, you felt the shift too.

It wasn’t just busy. It was the year everything we’ve been building finally clicked.
We watched data turn into decisions, interns turn into professionals, and community partners turn insights into action. There were days when a single dashboard changed how an entire team planned their week.

A quick snapshot of what moved us forward:
•We leaned into our *Smarter Data, Better Solutions* approach helping organizations go from scattered spreadsheets to clarity, confidence, and real next steps.

•Our internship program became a true launchpad: *25 interns trained, 10 now full-time, 9 still growing with us.*

•We deepened partnerships across Memphis and beyond from the City and County to UAC, Peer Power, Brooks Museum, Community Legal Center, DMV Virginia, and more.

And through all of it, one idea proved itself again and again:
*Data is the new FORCE and this year, we watched that force move people forward.*

If 2025 was about momentum,
*2026 is about acceleration.*

We’re stepping into 2026 not with resolutions, but with momentum
*and the best part? We’re only just getting started.*

*Happy New Year from Kena Solutions*
let’s build what comes next.

31/12/2025

Thank you & Happy New Year from the Bay Head Barnacle

“Imitation is the highest form of ChatGPT-ery.” hashtag

Thank you for your continued support—and for your patience with my ramblings as I chronicled the past year’s events from the shoreline. From shifting tides to unexpected squalls, you stayed aboard, read along, and kept the conversation going.

As we turn the page on the calendar and look out over a fresh horizon, I’m grateful for this community and the thoughtful engagement that makes the Barnacle worth scraping off the pilings each week.

Wishing you calm seas, fair winds, and a healthy, prosperous New Year ahead.

— The Bay Head Barnacle 🐚

31/12/2025

The benefits of investing with your head, not your heart/emotions

It looks like “Average Joe” investors were digging life in 2025 by bucking conventional, or at least “Headline grabbing” wisdom (I use the term lightly there as wisdom requires one assess a situation with an unbiased mind) and buying the dips. Back in the day, I moved from the institutional side of the business to the retail side with the sole directive of “leveling out the playing field for the retail investor). Well it looks like the retail investor did this all on their own this year — good on ye lads and lassies. - murph

Retail investors close out one of their best years ever. How they beat Wall Street at their own game

Retail investors have had a gangbuster year in 2025.

Mom-and-pop investors bought the dip at key points this year, providing strong returns as the market climbed to all-time highs. Once thought of as unsophisticated and easily duped, a new breed of retail investor is giving the professionals who have long dismissed them a run for their money, according to investors and market data analysts interviewed by CNBC.

Individual traders bought the dip at a faster clip during market drawdowns early in the year, according to JPMorgan quant analyst Arun Jain, who called it a "successful year" for this group. It was an effective strategy: 2025 is shaping up to be the second-best year since at least the early 1990s for dip-buying, per data from Bespoke Investment Group data published this month.

'TACO' and buying the dip
A significant driver of their strong performance this year goes back to a week in April that had investors of all sizes on the edge of their seats.

Big money ran for the hills as President Donald Trump first unveiled his plan for broad and steep tariffs on most foreign countries on April 2, which he dubbed "liberation day." The S&P 500 briefly slipped into bear market territory as institutional investors worried the policy would drive up inflation and weigh on corporate earnings.

Retail investors "have been more right about the market and how to react to, certainly, a lot of the emotionally driven trades of the year," Malek said. "They've been much more accurate in their dealings than my colleagues in the institutional space."
Beyond believing in buying the dip, these traders also benefited from a conviction that the "TACO trade" would pan out, according to Zhi Da, a professor of finance at the University of Notre Dame whose research focuses on retail trader activity.

But retail investors jumped head first into the turbulence. They bought a record of more than $3 billion in equities on net on April 3 — even as the S&P 500 fell around 5% in the session, according to VandaTrack. Elevated buying continued the following day despite the benchmark average dropping another 6%.

Down the Shore “May the fences of 2025 turn into stepping stones in 2026.” A happy, healthy, and peaceful New Year to one and all.

May the road rise to meet you.
GRMA ☘️

Kena Solutions

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