07/08/2025
From Matt Kerbel of Wolves and Sheep, published July 28:
"Costs and Benefits: Trump's fate ultimately will be in the hands of his party.
"On August 7, 1974, House Republican Leader John Rhodes, Senate Republican Leader Hugh Scott, and Republican elder statesman Barry Goldwater paid a visit to Richard Nixon at the Old Executive Office Building next to the White House. The Watergate scandal had reached a fever pitch and Nixon’s presidency was embattled.
"But the three senior Republicans were not there to encourage Nixon to resign. They were there to inform him that his support in Congress had cratered. They told him that while some House and Senate Republicans were still with him, many more had reached the conclusion that they could not stand by him any longer. He did not have the votes to withstand impeachment and conviction.
"Nixon resigned the next day.
"This is how it works.
"Elected officials who share a party label with the president are the ones who determine how much latitude he has to operate. They are in a position to green light his worst behavior, as they are doing with Trump, or to restrain him if they think he went too far. They can rally behind his domestic agenda or stubbornly refuse to pass it. In extreme instances, like in August 1974, they can determine his fate.
"In what feels like a different lifetime, Joe Biden found himself hamstrung by two senators who for their own reasons would not embrace the full measure of his plan to Build Back Better, and Biden was forced to curtail his domestic policy ambitions. Later, he was at the mercy of prominent Democrats who believed they were about to lose the 2024 election if he didn’t step aside.
"And in the lifetime before that, Republicans for a brief moment flirted with convicting Donald Trump in an impeachment trial held days after his supporters stormed and occupied the Capitol, temporarily halting the certification of the 2020 electoral votes.
"Every member who has ever faced the prospect of defying or abandoning a president of his or her party at some point pondered a simple question: do the benefits of opposing the president outweigh the costs?
"With Donald Trump, the answer to this question has always been no.
"Even in the dark days following the January 6 attack, defying Trump meant defying his base, and defying his base meant risking their wrath in the next election.
"Will that ever change?
"The explosion of the Epstein scandal like a bomb cyclone engulfing Washington has led me to wonder whether something as damaging as this story could actually bring down Trump’s presidency. My speculation begins and ends with the future political decisions of House and Senate Republicans—decisions which right now remain unknown.
"Trump’s fate will turn on his ability to maintain an iron grip on his party. He needs Republican officials to perceive the cost of abandoning him as too high, or at least higher than the cost of defending him.
"They have only teetered twice. Once was in the days following Trump’s exit from the presidency, after the events of January 6. The other was in the days before he was first elected.
"That moment most resembles today. For a brief time back in 2016, it looked like Trump’s political career was about to end. The notorious Access Hollywood tape had been released to the public and every high profile Republican official had to make a quick decision about whether it was going to be more costly to defend Trump or to abandon him and, if the choice was abandonment, whether to go so far as to call for his withdrawal from the presidential contest. Some did.
"Casting aside your standard bearer weeks before Election Day essentially means conceding defeat, so the political cost of sticking with him had to be enormous, as it was for some Republicans in this case. Like today, Trump was the (guilty) party at the heart of a blossoming scandal he could not control. But that was before Trump’s public support stabilized, Wikileaks began publishing hacked Clinton campaign emails, and James Comey announced he was re-opening his investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server.
"The calculus changed.
"Right now, Trump is confronting his greatest political threat since that autumn—perhaps greater than the threat he faced in 2021—because he cannot automatically count on his MAGA base to bail him out of another unfolding scandal where his survival instincts preclude him from doing the one thing that could regain their trust. He will not release the Jeffrey Epstein files.
"At the moment, Trump has lost control of events. His usual moves aren’t working. An attempt to deflect attention by accusing Barack Obama of treason did nothing to stop the flow of damaging Epstein-related claims, like the Wall Street Journal report published the next day documenting that Trump’s name is all over the Epstein materials, and that he was briefed about it months ago.
"His party remains divided over how to respond. Congressional leadership is running for the hills.
"As more details surface, Republicans will be calculating how close they want to get to someone who could at any time face documented evidence of his involvement in Epstein’s crimes. A nexus of unknowns are currently clouding their calculations. What do the files say about Trump? What details will become public? How credible will they be? How will the base react? How will the rest of the country react?
"Trump has successfully dominated elected Republicans by
threatening to turn the wrath of his base against them, if not physically (although that is an ongoing fear), then politically in the form of primary challenges against those who stray too far from whatever he wants them to do. If the Epstein scandal splits the base, those risks may diminish in comparison to how it would look in a general election to defend Trump’s behavior—depending of course on what that behavior turns out to be.
"Even under the most extreme circumstances, it’s as difficult to visualize Trump accepting Nixon’s fate as it is to imagine a moment when Republican leadership confronts him truthfully about his weakened political state. But it is possible to imagine Trump losing the grip he is used to exercising over his party, and for some Republicans to start worrying more about how Trump plays in a general election than in primaries.
"That may not be enough to end Trump’s presidency. He may not be driven from office by the potential loss of Republican support, but he could face significant consequences should enough Republicans decide they want to move on from him because the benefits derived from defending him diminish in relation to the costs. With the 2028 election will be in full swing in just fifteen months, it could be an attractive off ramp for apprehensive Republicans to start looking past Trump to his successor.
"For Republicans on the ballot next year, this could be the best way to split the difference between a set of unknown costs and benefits—not to break with Trump entirely but to expedite the process of looking to the future.
"But for Trump, this would be a fate worse than resignation. It would be worse than impeachment and conviction. Because it would bring about the one thing he cannot countenance.
"It would make him irrelevant." (BR)