New Progressive Muckraker

28/11/2025

From Matt Kerbel of Wolves and Sheep, published last Monday: "A Thanksgiving Thought.

"Well, this feels different.

"Donald Trump is in retreat on multiple fronts while members of his party scramble to figure out how they’re going to defend their record to voters next year.

"After ten months of Trump asserting his dominance, in a regime built on the assertion of dominance, the would-be monarch has hit a wall.

"And that’s starting to register inside the Beltway, which until recently served as a fortress for the idea of Trump’s invincibility.

"We’ve known since almost the beginning of Trump’s second term how badly the MAGA project was failing. We’ve been discussing Trump’s historic unpopularity all year. We’ve talked repeatedly about how the remaining guardrails were holding him back.

"But that message hadn’t penetrated official Washington, where Trump was viewed as the strongman he wanted and needed to be. In a culture where strength is measured by the ability to control the news agenda, Trump reigned supreme by appearing dominant.

"Until now.

"As Chris [Bowers, Wolves and Sheep's co-owner and author] noted on Saturday, things started to collapse quickly for Trump in September after he failed to have Jimmy Kimmel erased from late night television. Remember how frightening it felt to watch Trump silence the jesters who could pierce his intentions with their wit? First Colbert, then Kimmel. Who would be next?

"It turned out nobody would be next.

"The effort to sack Kimmel was met with such massive public blowback that ABC’s parent company Disney relented and returned him to the air, where he was feted as a hero by his swelling audience.

"Weeks later, millions took to the streets to say no to Trump’s authoritarianism in the largest single day of protest in American history.

"Then Trump desecrated the White House to build a gilded ballroom for himself while a shuttered government caused millions to suffer. The public noticed his indifference and the unbearable intolerance of congressional Republicans who held fast to the shutdown in order to punish countless millions by making healthcare exorbitantly expensive or entirely unaffordable.

"Democrats would eventually retreat from their demand to protect Affordable Care Act subsidies, but people blamed the shutdown on Republicans. Trump’s job approval was in free fall.

"Then November 4 happened. A fifteen-point win in Virginia. A fourteen-point win in New Jersey in an election Republicans thought was within their reach. A blowout win for Proposition 50 in California. The election of a democratic socialist mayor in New York. It was a thumping repudiation of Trump and MAGA so complete and unexpected and sweeping that it pierced the Beltway bubble.

"It was the moment when Wile E. Coyote looked down and realized he had run off a cliff.

"And then the Epstein vote happened.

"Republicans abandoned the administration in such large numbers that Trump himself had to pretend to support legislation designed to make him release materials that are in his power to divulge any time.

"Trump’s rapid loss of altitude is attributable to his designs on absolute power running headlong into the normal laws of political physics.

"It’s happening because House and Senate Republicans saw what happened to their party this month and remembered that they will be on the ballot next November. They are going to have to defend a year of drunken abandon in service of a man and a movement that the country soundly rejects. And they’re starting to realize it.

"This is what’s supposed to happen in a democracy.

"Republicans are scared because the would-be king has been unable to dismantle the mechanisms by which the public gets the last word on their performance.

"Sit with that for a minute.

"It’s worth remembering what would be happening if Republicans had figured out a way to rig elections in their favor.

"Nothing.

"Nothing would be happening.

"Because nothing happens to enablers in a system where elections are meaningless.

"Instead, Republicans have to defend:

"*An economy where consumer sentiment is hovering near record lows

"*Trump’s historic personal unpopularity

"*Trump’s agenda, which is even more unpopular than he is

"*Their role in facilitating Trump’s unpopular agenda

"*The Epstein scandal

"As people gather for the holiday, I suspect the first and last items on this list will come up a lot in conversation.

"Republicans will want desperately to change that conversation.

"But they can’t.

"And because they are starting to realize they will have to engage in those conversations next year with no obvious way to defend their role in what’s making people angry, it is dawning on them—finally—that they have to make a difficult choice.

"It is the choice they have avoided making for a decade—the choice between Donald Trump and their careers.

"So as you sit down to celebrate Thanksgiving if that is your tradition, if you are gathering with family and friends or just taking advantage of a day or two off, be thankful that you don’t face the choice Republicans are confronting.

"Be thankful that they do.

"And after a difficult and challenging year, be thankful that the corrective mechanisms of democracy survive." (BR)

25/11/2025

From Olivia Troye: "Comey and Letitia James Cases Tossed. Mark Kelly Investigated.

"When prosecutors fail but investigations keep coming, it’s not justice, it’s an ongoing message.

"There’s a simple way to understand this moment: Look at who the system punishes, and who it protects. If you follow that pattern, everything happening right now makes sense.

"This week, two big stories hit within hours of each other:

"A federal judge didn’t just toss the cases; she voided every action Lindsey Halligan took as an illegally appointed U.S. attorney. That means the indictments against James Comey and Letitia James weren’t simply weak; they were legally nonexistent. And because the ruling focused on Lindsey Halligan’s illegitimate appointment rather than the underlying allegations, the administration has already signaled it may try again. But even that is murky: legal experts disagree on whether the rushed, now-voided Comey indictment triggers the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) six-month window to refile. The cases didn’t fall apart because the evidence exonerated anyone; they fell apart because the prosecutor herself wasn’t legally allowed to bring them. But don’t worry, Pam Bondi says Halligan is 'an excellent U.S. attorney.' This is a fascinating take on someone the court ruled wasn’t legally allowed to be a U.S. attorney at all. Sure. And I’m an excellent astrophysicist.

"Meanwhile, the Pentagon opened an investigation into Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona for allegedly encouraging 'disobedience' inside the military.

"These aren’t isolated headlines. Together, they draw a picture the public needs to see clearly, because it reveals something about the health of our institutions, the pressure points within the government, and the direction this country is heading if we don’t pay attention.

"Let’s break this down plainly.

"When the law becomes a messaging tool, you stop getting justice and start getting theater.

"The Comey and Letitia James cases were never really about proving wrongdoing. They were about sending a message to people who refuse to bend the knee. Drag them through legal quicksand. Plant the headline. Smear the reputation. Let the case sit long enough for supporters to raise money off it. And then, months later, shrug when the court throws it out. The moment’s over. The damage is done. If anything, this outcome spared the DOJ from a far more damning ruling, one that could have explicitly labeled these prosecutions as political retribution.

"It’s not justice. It’s not accountability. It’s intimidation with a filing number.

"Anyone who has spent time inside government, especially in national security, has seen this tactic up close. It’s the legal equivalent of someone tapping the badge on their chest and saying, 'You sure you want to do that?'

"Let’s pause here, because this one deserves attention.

"The Defense Department, and yes, I’m calling it that, because plenty of people inside the Pentagon openly mock the 'Department of War' rebrand, is now investigating a sitting U.S. senator, and not just any senator:

"Mark Kelly. Former Navy combat pilot. Astronaut. Husband of Gabby Giffords. A man who has dedicated his life to service.

"And in a sign of just how unserious this ‘serious investigation’ really is, the Pentagon announced it the way teenagers announce breakups, via a social media post.

"The accusation? That his public remarks somehow crossed an invisible line and amounted to 'encouraging disobedience.' A serious, and conveniently vague, charge. Almost as vague as the Pentagon’s 'further official comments will be limited, to preserve the integrity of the proceedings' post. Translation, in Trump-era bureaucracy: give us a minute while we figure out the story we want to tell.

"It’s the kind of accusation that hangs heavy in military culture, because trust and discipline are the foundation of the entire system.

"But the context matters: Kelly criticized reckless military decisions and warned service members to uphold their oath to the Constitution, not any individual. That’s not insubordination. That’s civics.

"Investigating someone like him sends a very different signal. Dissent will be punished. Even principled dissent. Even from those who wore the uniform. This isn’t about national security. This is about control.

"And if you’ve ever worked with the military, you know how fast fear can move through the ranks when these investigations start flying. People get quiet. Career officers look over their shoulders. Junior leaders start asking, 'Is this safe to say?'

"That’s how norms erode, not with a bang, but with a warning shot.

"And this fits a pattern I wrote about on Saturday: the administration is preparing a rule that would gut federal whistleblower protections. Tens of thousands of senior civil servants, the very people most likely to spot fraud, abuse, or illegal activity, would lose safeguards against retaliation. In other words, the people who know where the bodies are buried would be easier to silence or fire.

"The through-line here is pressure—invisible, quiet, and corrosive.

"Pressure on prosecutors. Pressure on investigators. Pressure on military officers. Pressure on people whose job is to uphold the rules, not rewrite them overnight.

"This is what happens when the system stops protecting its truth-tellers and starts targeting its protectors.

"I’ve seen this from the inside—in classified briefings, in Situation Room debates, and in those hallway conversations public servants whisper because they’re scared of sounding naïve:

“'Does the leadership actually want the facts?'
“'Are we going to get punished for being honest?'
“'Do we just stay out of it?'

"I faced those questions myself in Trump 1.0.

"When those questions start creeping in, the system is already in trouble. Not because it’s collapsing, but because people are starting to pull back. Democracies don’t fall all at once. They thin out. They become quieter. They stop pushing back. They stop asking hard questions because the cost suddenly feels too high. That’s the danger we’re in right now, not a dramatic crisis, but a slow, steady draining of courage from the institutions that need it most.

"What this means for public management is the part no one puts in a headline.

"Let’s talk about the actual machinery of government, something I’ve spent most of my adult life in. Public institutions run on credibility. Not slogans. Not press releases. Credibility. Credibility comes from a simple, unglamorous principle: The rules apply the same way to everyone.

"But right now?

"Critics are being hauled into court.

"Loyalists are being shielded.

"A respected senator is being investigated for defending constitutional norms.

"Civil servants are watching it all and wondering whether 'doing the right thing' is still the safe option.

"When you shake credibility long enough, agencies hollow out. People stop raising concerns. They stop innovating. They stop making bold decisions. They stop telling the truth up the chain because they’re afraid of what happens if the truth is inconvenient. A hesitating government is a vulnerable government. Not because it’s weak, but because it loses the one strength that makes democracies resilient: the integrity of the people inside it.

"So what’s the bigger takeaway here?

"It’s not that the system is doomed. It’s that the system is under pressure, from directions most Americans never see, in legal filings, internal memos, investigations, and whispered warnings inside agencies.

"And here’s the part that really matters:

"Law is only as strong as the people who enforce it without fear or favor.

"The military is only as trustworthy as the officers who feel safe to speak honestly.

"Government is only as resilient as the truth-tellers we refuse to abandon.

"Right now, those people need backup. They need the public to pay attention. They need citizens who understand what’s at stake, even if the headlines don’t explain it. Because you don’t lose a democracy when the tanks roll, you lose it when the truth-tellers look around, realize no one is coming to help them, and decide to walk away quietly.

"If I’ve learned anything from my time in national security, it’s this:

"Strong countries aren’t the ones with the biggest weapons or the loudest leaders. They’re the ones where the rule-followers are braver than the rule-breakers. Where truth is a duty, not a gamble. Where public service is honored, not threatened.

"The guardians are under pressure. How we respond, how loudly we speak, how clearly we see what’s happening, will determine whether they can keep standing.

"And whether the system we inherited still has enough integrity left to pass down to the next generation.

"More soon,

"Olivia" (BR)

22/11/2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op4ErWy53u4 (BR)

MS NOW’s Lawrence O’Donnell describes how the Trump wall in the House and Senate that “prevented Republicans from ever voting with Democrats” collapsed this ...

17/11/2025

From Matt Kerbel of Wolves and Sheep: "Why Trump Is Losing the Country

"Years ago, when we were still trying to get our arms around the MAGA phenomenon, I wrote extensively about how polarization was undermining a political system built on consensus.

"Our winner-take-all elections promote sprawling political parties that try to attract the most voters possible. Unlike some systems where smaller parties can claim a share of power because representation is dished out proportionally to multiple candidates based on their vote share, in America the winner gets elected and the other candidates get nothing.

"It’s not uncommon to hear Americans complain about this relative lack of choice, but having two big parties compete for power doesn’t have to be problematic as long as they have incentive to compromise with each other. And they have incentive to compromise with each other when most people hold moderate views. Which, for much of our history, they have.

"Think of it this way: Let’s say we asked everyone in the country how they think of themselves ideologically—whether they are very liberal, very conservative, or somewhere in between. Now let’s say we lined everyone up left to right based on their answers. We would expect most people to end up somewhere in the middle. That’s because typically few Americans have identified with the extreme left or the extreme right, while most have clustered in a range just to the right or left of center.

"If most people are near the ideological center, it follows that the center is where most of the votes are. So that’s where the two big political parties will go looking for voters. And the best way to appeal to voters near the center is to take moderate positions, which in turn serves to promote compromise with the other party.

"In other words, centrist public opinion pushes the parties closer to each other.

"But what happens when the center erodes? What happens when supporters of one party abandon consensus politics and take extreme or radical positions? Under these circumstances, if we lined everybody up there would still be a cluster of voters in the original center, but there would also be a new second grouping out toward one of the edges, distinctly separate from everyone else. If enough people gravitate to that extreme group, it will grow too large to ignore.

"The leaders of the party affiliated with those radicalizing voters—still in search of enough votes to win elections—are likely to follow them.

"Suddenly, the logic of consensus breaks down. When one party has to satisfy voters on the extremes, it takes positions that are incompatible with everyone else. This leaves less room and less incentive to compromise with the other party.

"The country now has two political poles—a centrist pole and (in the case of MAGA) a right-wing reactionary pole. One party—in this case Democrats—is left to cater to what remains of the center, which has grown smaller as voters abandoned it. And the other party finds itself captive to the demands of their radical followers.

"Between the two groups is nothing—a vast ocean devoid of voters. Think of the remaining center as the political mainland and the reactionary group as an island with its own distinct preferences and agenda. Let’s call it MAGA Island.

"But we still have a two-party system and winner-take-all elections, so an advantage should accrue to the party on the mainland. With Democrats speaking to the larger group of voters, they should be expected to win elections most of the time. And that’s pretty much what has happened in the Trump years, with Democrats triumphing in almost every election cycle since 2016. Even when Trump was elected in 2024, Democrats had strong down ballot performances, winning senate or gubernatorial elections in five swing states where Trump was victorious.

"To this end, the way Trump won last year is instructive. At the same time he rallied his base, Trump reached across the ocean and made a play to mainstream voters by promising to reverse the effects of post-Covid inflation.

"And it worked—at least enough for him to win. It might have continued to work had Trump decided to govern the way he campaigned.

"But he did not.

"Trump immediately imposed tariffs that had the opposite effect of what he promised while catering to his radical base and a small coterie of the ultra-wealthy.

"And in that we find the seeds of what is blossoming into a full-fledged revolt against his administration.

"Almost immediately, the coalition that elected Trump began to unravel. His job approval plummeted as he lost the support of mainstream groups that had been key to his election, notably but not exclusively young male and Latino voters.

"But instead of changing course and addressing their concerns—instead of trying to reach out to the portion of mainstream America that gave him a chance during the election—Trump decided to govern for his radical base and uber-wealthy allies. Essentially, he became the president of MAGA Island.

"By ignoring the needs of the rest of the country, Trump began driving the rest of the country away from him, creating an electorate that reflects the bimodal divide of public opinion rather than the alliance of convenience between the reactionaries and regular voters angry about high prices that Trump had built to get elected.

"This stark divide is reflected in opinion polls.

"Consider a few data points from a Navigator Research survey of views on the government shutdown.

"On items like Trump’s handling of the economy, support for Trump’s priorities, and who’s to blame for SNAP running out of money, there is a monumental gap between the views of MAGA Republicans on one side and Democrats and independents on the other.

"The key here is how independents track closely with Democrats and how Democrats and independents together view the world so differently than MAGA Republicans.

"An overwhelming share of Democrats and independents disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the economy. Only a sliver of MAGA Republicans feel this way.

"Just about every Democrat and most independents think it was inappropriate for Trump to spend lavishly on himself during the government shutdown. Less than one-third of MAGA Republicans are troubled by this.

"Hardly any Democrats or independents fault Democrats for SNAP funds drying up. But three in four MAGA Republicans do.

"This isn’t just a partisan gap. It’s two incompatible worlds.

"The problem for Trump is that he has chosen sides. It’s an axiom of politics that a president who loses significant public support can regain it by repositioning closer to the voters who are abandoning him. So, for instance, when Bill Clinton’s failed attempt at healthcare reform left him vulnerable to charges that he was too liberal for the country, he deliberately moved to the center.

"Trump does not have this luxury. Even if he had the capacity to admit failure and change course—which is a topic for another day—he has lost the voters who were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt last year. Reactionary politics does not partner naturally with—anything, really. In Trump’s case, it’s not a matter of sliding slightly to the left when the only thing to the left of MAGA Island is an ocean separating it from the rest of the country.

"This is the structural reason why Republicans are in so much jeopardy. There simply aren’t enough people on MAGA Island to sustain Trump as he alienates the rest of the country.

"Put Trump’s policies and behavior on the ballot like they were two weeks ago and you get a thorough repudiation of Trump’s party. Give voters the same choice next year and you should expect the same outcome in every jurisdiction outside MAGA Island.

"Trump may have no use for his party and may see House and Senate Republicans as little more than rubber stamps for his whims. But Republicans who will be on the ballot everywhere but the deepest red jurisdictions will care a lot, and they will have to confront a monster of their own creation. After binding themselves to a president who represents only a radical and select portion of the electorate, they will find that it’s a long and treacherous swim between MAGA Island and the mainland, where the voters they need for victory reside." (BR)

17/11/2025

From Chris Bowers, owner of Bowers News Media and co-author of Wolves and Sheep, published Saturday:

"The Donald Trump Con Job that Democrats and Progressives are Most Likely to Believe

"Donald Trump isn't all powerfull, but he wants you to think that he is.

"As Matt Kerbel pointed out yesterday, senior Trump administration officials met with a Republican backbencher in the Situation Room on Wednesday, pressuring her to remove her name from a discharge petition to release the Epstein files. The backbencher in question, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, declined. A few hours later, the discharge petition succeeded, and now a vote to release the Epstein files will be held next week.

"Also on Wednesday, Donald Trump signed a bill to end the government shutdown. Trump and Republicans are treating the end of the shutdown as a victory. That said, it was the longest shutdown in history, and took place despite Trump’s wishes. Additionally, when it ended, the bill that Donald Trump signed continued spending levels set during Joe Biden’s time in the White House. There are no Trump levels of spending, at least not yet. So far, he has only been able to continue along Biden’s path.

"The week before that, Republicans were thoroughly trounced in the 2025 elections, just as they had been getting trounced in special elections and judicial elections all year. Donald Trump endorsed all of the losing candidates. During the year, he made a lot of noise about elections, from trying to make it more difficult to register to vote, to railing against vote-by-mail, to sending election monitors to California. However, nothing that Trump did ended up being of consequence.

"The week before the elections, the U.S. Senate, controlled by Donald Trump’s own party, voted against Donald Trump’s tariffs on several countries.

"Four weeks ago today [Saturday], the largest single-day protest in the history of the United States took place, when at as many as seven million people turned out at thousands of locations around the country to protest Donald Trump. The protests took place almost entirely without incident.

"Nine days before the protests, the U.S. Senate passed a bill which, among many other provisions, restricted Donald Trump’s ability to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe and Asia. The vote was 77-20, making for a remarkable bipartisan condemnation of Trump’s foreign policy and a restriction of his powers.

"Two weeks before that, Jimmy Kimmel returned to the airwaves. Donald Trump had attempted to have Kimmel cancelled. However, after withering bipartisan criticism that included some powerful Republicans, and a spontaneous burst of grassroots boycott outrage, Kimmel’s broadcasters ultimately acted against the wishes of the Trump administration. Kimmel’s ratings are now at all all time high. In fact, anti-Trump media in general continues to experience a nationwide boom that has resulted in a wider audience for center-left media than possibly at any other time in American history.

"Through it all, Donald Trump’s nominees kept getting withdrawn. Over 50 Trump administration nominees have been withdrawn so far this year, obliterating the previous single-year record by a presidential administration. This is particularly remarkable, given that Trump’s party controls the U.S. Senate, that much of this year took place during his 'honeymoon' period, and that Republicans even changed Senate rules in 2025 to make it easier to confirm nominees.

"The courts have not been any easier on Trump. As of this writing, according to a tracker from the Associated Press, the Trump administration has been on the losing side of 149 rulings from federal judges, compared to only 102 wins.

"Trump’s approval rating has consistently declined as well. He is now at all-time lows according to Nate Silver, G. Elliot Morris, and Decision Desk HQ, with only slightly more than 40% of Americans approving, and about 54-55% disapproving.

"Trump’s attempt to cover this all up and maintain control of the House of Representatives by having Republican-led states draw new, even more gerrymandered maps has failed. Democrats are on track to redraw as many, or possibly slightly more, Republican-held House seats than Republicans have been able to re-draw. The failure of Trump’s gerrymandering push is now being acknowledged by an increasing number of media outlets, including Roll Call, The Hill, CNN and MSNBC {which as of last weekend has taken the new name MSNOW].

"None of Donald Trump’s political enemies have been convicted of anything, and none of them are in jail. With the possible exception of John Bolton, it appears pretty unlikely than any of them ever will be.

"Trump has also relented on the idea of serving a third term, apparently in part because the Republican Speaker of the House told him to cut it out.

"Speaking of Congress, even though Donald Trump’s party controls both branches, he is on pace to sign about 90% fewer bills into law this year than has happened in any other year since at least 1935. He has currently signed 14 laws, compared to 274 for Joe Biden during his final two years (which was the previous low since 1935).

"In light of this list, ask yourself if you really believe that Donald Trump is all powerful and operating without constraints. Because, I have to say, seeing all of this together reminds me that Trump is, in fact, operating under quite a few constraints.

"Further, the constraints that Trump is operating under are all normal and democratic. He is being held back in various ways by voters, the courts, the media, public opinion, Congress, the states, and grassroots activism. Nothing unusual or extreme is holding him back.

"However, he wants you, the ordinary Democratic grassroots activist or concerned progressive citizen, to believe that he is operating without constraints. He wants you to believe that he can send the military wherever he wants, that he can ignore the courts, that Congress will do whatever he says, that he will serve another term, that all of his political enemies will be jailed, that there won’t be any more fair elections, and that public opinion has no impact on him. He wants you to believe this to provoke extreme and unpopular responses that will benefit him legally and politically.

"Trump’s use of the National Guard, and his messaging about the use of the National Guard, is a perfect example of this. In public, Trump will make brash claims, like that he will send 'more than the National Guard' to cities if he wants to, or that Chicago 'will find out why its called the Department of WAR.' He wants to make it sound like he can, and will, do whatever he wants. However, in the real world, where Trump operates under actual constraints, the Pentagon authorizes small scale deployments of a couple hundred troops to places like Oregon and Illinois, with limited missions to protect federal property and personnel. Then, Trump’s Department of Justice struggles to get Republican-appointed judges to go along even with those limited missions, hanging its entire legal case on limited disruptive acts which took place during some protests outside of federal buildings.

"This is the Donald Trump con job that too many Democrats and progressives fall for: the idea that Trump is completely unconstrained and that normal, Democratic means of opposing him are ineffective, so that extreme and undemocratic measures must be undertaken to stop him. Then, when people actually take the bait and engage in those extreme measures, such as the violence that did take place at some anti-ICE protests, the Trump administration uses that reaction for its political benefit.

"Don’t fall for it. One thing this last year has proved is that it is entirely possible to constrain and even defeat Donald Trump using the normal democratic levers available to us: voting, nonviolent protests, speaking out, contacting Congress, supporting opposition media, lawsuits, and other tools available to citizens in a liberal democracy. This is how we win. This is how we are winning. In fact, this is the only possible way we can win." (BR)