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04/07/2025

Watching a tropical system forming off the SC coast. This will slowly move toward the state over the weekend, perhaps increasing to minimal tropical storm strength. At this point, impacts look to be limited. The coast will be rainy and a little breezy with an elevated risk of rip currents. Some of the rain may make it into the midlands at times. Looks to be mostly just a nuisance event at this time, though. I'll keep watching and post updates if any changes.

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25/06/2025

Interesting weather setup this afternoon/evening that could bring an above normal threat of strong thunderstorms...

As is typical on a hot/muggy summer day, there will be scattered, pop up thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. With temperatures above average (near 100 degrees), it will add a bit more energy to the air than your normal summer afternoon. Also, unlike your typical summer day, there will be some upper level dynamics moving into the area to help organize storms.

Despite this, there are some ingredients in place that work against storms which may win out the battle in some areas. So it's not a "slam dunk" guarantee that everyone gets a storm. But in spots where the "pros" for storms win the battle, those storms that do form may be more intense than you typically see in June; Both in terms of wind speeds and hail size.

Just be extra weather-aware today. If you hear thunder or are put under a warning, be sure to head indoors, away from windows until the storm passes.

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31/03/2025

Strong/Severe Storms Possible Later Today...

No real change in my thinking this morning. All signs point to a stormy afternoon/evening. Biggest risks being the chance of damaging downburst winds over 60mph and large hail (perhaps exceeding golfball size in one or two areas). Keep in mind, not everyone will see these impacts; They'll be kind of spotty and only affect random neighborhoods. But you'll want to have ways of getting weather warnings in case your location happens to be in the path of one of the stronger storms.

I'm not overly concerned with the tornado chance, though it's certainly not zero. Winds are not really changing direction with height (ie. "directional shear"), so that is a limiting factor for tornadoes...But winds are increasing in speed with height; What we call "speed shear". That can create a rolling effect and somewhat make up for the lack of "directional shear". So the tornado risk cannot be ignored, though I really believe that hail and straight line winds will be the bigger players in today's storms.

Timing: Greatest risk time will be in the upstate from noon through 5pm; Midlands 2pm to 8pm; Coast 5pm-10pm. These time ranges will likely be shortened/fine-tuned throughout the day.

Schools: Some schools may decide to dismiss early, so be listening out for any notifications of possible schedule changes throughout the day. This is particularly true over the western half of the state where the greatest impacts may be during school hours/normal dismissal time. Best threat farther east comes after school hours.

Safety tips:

Most of the state will probably be under a severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch at some point today. That simply means the air is ripe for severe weather over the next few hours and to remain weather-aware. These will be upgraded to "warnings" for some areas if/when the threat becomes more imminent.

If you're put under a severe thunderstorm warning, move indoors, away from windows and try to avoid being on the roads for the next hour or so, if possible.

If you're put under a tornado warning, anyone in mobile homes or vehicles should immediately evacuate to a sturdy, site-built structure (nearby gas station, grocery store, restaurant, etc.)...If you're in a site-built house or business, go to a center room where there's as many walls as possible between you and the outside (often a hallway, hallway closet or interior bathroom). We recommend wearing a helmet (bike helmet, sporting helmet, construction hard hat, etc.) or some other object for added head protection (pillows, blankets, couch cushions, hardback books, etc.)

This is not to scare anyone and nothing to panic about. Spring in the south often features a few days of active storms and we'll get through it just fine. All you need to do is just have ways of getting weather warnings (such as WEA "Wireless Emergency Alerts" active on your phone, weather radio, etc.) and take the appropriate precautions if you get put under a warning. Otherwise, you stay weather-aware, but go on about your day.

More updates to come....

Tony

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30/03/2025

Strong Storms Possible Monday Afternoon and Evening...

Computer guidance is suggesting that we'll be unstable enough for thunderstorms on Monday. With strong winds at cloud level, any thunderstorms that manage to form on Monday would have the chance of organizing and getting strong.

The biggest risk from any storms would be large hail and damaging downburst winds, though tornadoes are not completely out of the question either. Fortunately, there's not much change in wind direction with height, so that limits the tornado risk somewhat...But you can still get a tornado in this kind of setup simply from the increasing wind speeds with height (creating a rolling effect).

I should mention, the ingredients are a bit better to our south over central/southern Georgia. If a lot of storms start forming down there early enough in the day, those could rob some of the energy from reaching us. While that would help us out, we can't guarantee that will happen. So it's best to be prepared for the chance of active storms making it here.

It's too soon to say what schools will do, but with a potentially elevated severe storm risk during the afternoon, it's very possible that some districts may elect to dismiss early. So be listening out for any possible schedule adjustments for the kiddos.

No need to stress or be overly alarmed. This is nothing unusual. It's spring in the south; We expect to get a few stormy days this time of year. Just have ways of getting weather warnings, know your safety tips and follow them if you're put under a warning.

Will post more updates as we get closer...

Tony

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16/03/2025

10:30pm update: Strong storms slowly approaching...

Currently watching very powerful, tornado-producing storms in Alabama, moving into Georgia. While these will weaken a great deal overnight as they cross Georgia, some of them may still be at severe levels (Damaging wind gusts over 60mph and short-track tornadoes) when they reach South Carolina.

These should start reaching the upstate after 3am, the midlands after 5am and the coast after daybreak/mid morning. These should clear the western half of the state by lunchtime, though may last throughout the afternoon over the eastern half of the state.

Make sure you have ways of hearing warnings, even while sleeping, as we can't rule out some being required. Have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) active on your phone and make sure the "do not disturb" setting is OFF for tonight. If you have a weather radio with alarm, make sure it's set and ready to go.

If you do happen to get put under a tornado warning, you'll want to take shelter right away. Mobile homes and vehicles are not safe places to ride out a tornado. A site-built house can be a safe place, as long as you go to a center room, lowest floor, as many walls between you and the outside as possible. This is often a downstairs hallway, hallway closet or interior bathroom with no windows. We recommend putting on a helmet at your safe place, if you have one; Otherwise, cover your head with pillows, blankets, couch cushions, hardback books, etc..

I'll be here watching tonight and tomorrow and posting updates on the general weather setup. But never rely on social media for real-time warnings.

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14/03/2025

Weekend weather situation: For Saturday, no issues for our area, but we'll be carefully watching states to our west (Alabama, Mississippi, etc.) as a potentially significant severe weather outbreak occurs; Including the threat of violent, long-track tornadoes. If you have any family/friends in/around those states, make sure that they're staying weather aware on Saturday as they're in for a dangerous setup...

The storms will weaken significantly as they approach our state during the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning, though they may not be completely below severe levels when they get here. Some could still be producing damaging wind gusts over 60mph and short-track, lower-intensity tornadoes. Keep in mind, even a relatively "weak" tornado is still strong enough to be dangerous if you're not taking proper shelter. So you'll want to have ways of getting weather warnings and take them seriously if you happen to be put under one.

Exact timing of the storms is a still a bit uncertain and will be narrowed down more as we get closer; But in general, the greatest threat appears be: Upstate: 2am - 9am Sat night/Sunday morning; Midlands: 5am - noon Sunday; Coast: 8am - 4pm Sunday...Again, these times are a general estimate and we'll adjust/fine-tune these later.

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05/03/2025

Gusty showers will roll across the midlands during the mid morning hours. Gusts over 50mph would be possible in spots, which is enough to bring down trees and cause scattered, short-term power outages. Be careful on the roads as downed limbs/trees can sneak up on you with little time to stop.

The line of showers quickly moves to the coast during the late morning/lunch time. Some added daytime heating there could allow the line to intensify a bit as it reaches the coast, increasing the chances of wind damage and perhaps even allowing a few quick, spin up tornadoes to form within it. That would primarily be along/east of I-95 and closer to the coast.

Keep in mind that even after the rain clears out, the rest of the day will remain very breezy (gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range) which could continue to allow for limbs/weaker trees to fall throughout the afternoon statewide.

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20/01/2025

Chance of snow for parts of the state late Tues afternoon and evening...

While snowflakes are possible anywhere in the state, the greatest chance (including possible accumulations) would be primarily south and east of a line from roughly Augusta to Columbia to Florence. This is one of those rare cases where highest snow totals would likely be in the low country and coast, with lesser chances and amounts the farther inland you go.

This "backwards" snow gradient being due to the storm system moving unusually far south and from extremely dry air moving into the state from the northwest. Upstate will be more under the influence of the dry air which will cause most (if not all) of the flakes to dry up before ever reaching the ground. The coast, being in better dynamics closer to the storm system and closer to a water source (the ocean) should easily make for snow accumulations. This will likely cause a cutoff between "just flurries" and "measureable snow" to set up somewhere over the midlands. While an average of high resolution model guidance suggests this cutoff will be somewhere near the I-20 corridor, there is still a spread among the guidance of give or take 45 miles or so.

The biggest issue will be slick roadways where snow accumulations occur. Keep in mind, with very cold air the rest of the week and afternoon temperatures only slightly above freezing, any snow accumulations would be slow to melt. In areas that get enough accumulation, that could lead to more than one day of partial melting then refreezing into black ice.

Will post updates tomorrow as we iron out the finer details.

Tony

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10/01/2025

Midday update: The initial "wintry mix" continues to transition into rain drops (due to warming in the clouds) roughly from Columbia and points south, but temperatures at ground level remain below freezing. This is causing those rain drops to freeze into icicles after they land. Temps in the upper 20s to around 30 are cold enough for icy patches on bridges/overpasses and secondary roads (and even borderline in spots for icy patches on main roads that have not been properly treated with sand/salt)..Surface air is still not completely saturated, so evaporative cooling will continue to offset daytime heating (resulting in temps holding where they are)...Fortunately, rain rates are mostly light for the time being...

Once that air fully saturates later today/this evening, the temperatures will slowly start to rise and rain intensity will increase. That's going to be the most critical point in this storm; How much warming can occur before the heavier rain sets in.....33 degrees and we're trouble free! 31-32, you'll have icicles in the trees/elevated surfaces that could result in some power outages, but limited impacts on the roads...30 or below, roads become a nightmare...

As I stated leading up to this event, we're right on the borderline such that one or two degrees can make a world of difference in the impacts you see in your yard...And you can easily have a 2 degree temperature difference between your front yard and your back yard, so that goes to show the complexities that we're dealing with. Road may only be wet in front of your house, but a solid shield of ice just a block away. So it's best to stay off the roads if possible, as long as we're right on that borderline....You just don't know where the slick spots are going to be until you hit them!

North of the Columbia area, confidence is much higher that you'll see significant impacts. For Columbia and points south, still a lot of uncertainty that will require close monitoring of temperature trends in the hours ahead.

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09/01/2025

Wintry mix possible Friday and Fri Night for the midlands; Greatest chances and biggest impacts the farther north you go toward the northern midlands and upstate....

An area of precipitation will apporach during the late morning/early afternoon. The air will initially be so dry that this will struggle to reach the ground. That precip falling through the dry air will also cause evaporative cooling (same way you get cold when you first step out of the shower or pool), so once it does start reaching the ground, it could start out as a slushy mix of different precipitation types.

For the Columbia area, warmer air moving in at cloud level should quickly transition any possible mix over to rain, though temperatures at ground level may remain near the freezing mark for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. This could cause the rain to freeze over into a glaze of icicles (ie. "freezing rain")...Given the borderline temperatures, most of those potential icicles would likely be on elevated surfaces, like trees and roof tops. Hopefully the roads stay clear, but it does bear watching as soil temperatures are unusually cold given all the hard freezes this week. Could not completely rule out some short term power outages due to the weight of icicles on power lines.

To the north of Columbia, particularly the northern midlands and upstate, the chances of ice are much higher, duration much longer, power outages more widespread and significant icing on the roads likely.

Exact surface temperatures will be critical in determining where ice occurs and how signficant it is during the late afternoon/evening. This will depend on 1. How warm the temperature can get in the morning before the precip starts (morning clouds will likely limit this heating)...and 2. How much the temperatures drop by afternoon due to evaporative cooling from the initial area of precip...It's a case where we'll have to watch temperature trends throughout the day and adjust our expectations accordingly.

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06/11/2024

Our dry weather will come to a quick end later today. While we could use some rain, parts of the state may get too much of a good thing. Highest risk of flash flooding will be over the southern half of South Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday.

The recent dry weather causes mixed results... For sandy soils, the dry dirt will initially be able to absorb a lot of the rain limiting the flooding threat for the first few inches that fall...On the flip side, clay soils have hardened to the point that they may not be able to absorb even the first few inches, leading to much quicker flooding concerns in those areas. Also of note, the lack of green vegitation this time of year enhances the flooding risk for all soil types over other times of the year.

While exact rain totals and extent of possible flooding remains uncertain, enough factors are in play that those in flood-prone areas need to be paying attention and have ways of getting flood warnings. Will also need to use extra caution on the roads, especially Wed night into Thurs. Remember, if you can't clearly see the lines in the road, that puddle is too deep to safely drive through.

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08/10/2024

There's still no evidence of any big impacts for South Carolina out of this latest hurricane. It'll be a little breezy, especially Thursday, with gusts 20 to 30mph most of the state (perhaps 35 or so in the low country) ; Enough to be an annoyance and maybe give you a bad hair day, but not enough to really do any noteworthy damage. Most, if not all of the tropical storm force winds should stay south of Savannah and offshore over the open waters where there's less friction to slow it down. A few light rain showers may brush parts of the coastline, but no significant rain expected. There will no doubt be some higher waves on the beaches with maybe a 2-4 ft storm surge on the low country beaches...Again, minor annoyances, but NOT a high impact event for us...

Unfortunately, for our friends down in Florida, the situation is much more dire! Major hurricane conditions expected on the west-central FL Peninsula coast (particularly areas around Tampa, Sarasota and down to Cape Coral). These areas will see widespread wind damage and significant storm surge (over 12 ft possible). Folks in evacuation zones that are told to leave, need to do so! Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland over the FL Peninsula with rain water flooding also a real possibility over the inland Peninsula. Tree damage as well as damage to the power grid and communication towers could be quite significant, leading to days or even weeks without power, internet or cell service for some. So even those inland that are considering riding out the storm need to consider the risk of flooding, large trees that could potentially fall on your home and the impact of those long term power and commuication outages. My thoughts and prayers are with those that will be affected by this!

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