30/06/2022
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located over the
southern Caribbean Sea, near the northern coast of Venezuela. The
system is forecast to cross Central America and move into the east
Pacific basin, as a tropical cyclone, over the weekend.
Southern Caribbean Sea:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation. However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression. This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 29 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of
organization, but according to satellite-derived surface wind
data, the system does not have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.