Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network

05/11/2025

***Weak Cold Front To Pass Through Tonight***

Good morning everyone, after looking at some high-resolution model guidance this morning it appears likely that a relatively weak cold front will be passing through Western Wyoming tonight. This is expected to bring with it low road impacts to both the Star and Jackson Hole valleys through the morning tomorrow with moderate road impacts to both Teton and Togwotee Passes.

As it looks right now the main time frame for precipitation will be between 10pm 11/5 to 4am on 11/6. Even though the main band of precipitation is not expected to be present during the morning commute snow packed and icy roads will still be possible especially over Teton and Togwotee Passes during peak commute time.

Given the orientation of the front (Southwest to Northeast) prime upslope flow will help to increase lift in front of our weak cold front allowing for potentially heavy snow fall rates (1 in/hr+) to occur along Teton Pass leading to significant reductions in visibility overnight tonight.

As for the valleys temperatures are expected to remain quite marginal for snowfall (mid 30's) decreasing the chances of any significant road impacts as snow will mostly all melt on impact with local roadways. Expect precipitation to start out as all rain below 6,500 feet before making a quick transition to a heavy wet snowfall as the front passes through between midnight and 2am.

As for accumulations thermal profiles suggest that the atmosphere will be primed for a wet/inefficient snowfall producing event even in the mountains. With a widespread .25-.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation expected here is what we can expect from this event.

Star Valley and Jackson Hole - Dusting to 1 inch

Snake River Canyon - 1-3 inches

Teton Pass - 3-5 inches

Togwotee Pass - 2-4 inches

Have a great day everyone and drive safe tomorrow morning especially if you are a Teton Pass commuter.

Looking ahead our next wintery event appears to roll through this Friday as another stronger cold front pushes through the area. This not expected to bring any significant accumulations with it at this time, but we will continue to keep you updated on the expectations of both systems over the next couple days.

26/10/2025

Good afternoon everyone it appears that the high end scenario mentioned a few nights back may occur with this current system as high temperatures topped out about 5 degrees below what was expected. Currently accumulating snowfall is down to approximately 6300 feet and is expected to cover Jackson Hole and Star Valley with the first plow able snowfall event of the year!!! Expect snow to continue from the highest peaks through the lowest valley’s in Western Wyoming through at least the morning hours. Let winter begin and make sure that you drive safe in n your morning commute tomorrow everyone. Significant snowfall is likely across the Snake River Canyon, Hoback Canyon, Teton Pass and Togwotee Pass through tonight. Be safe out there everyone. Below are some videos of snow starting to fall at around 6,300 feet on a hike we took on Ferry Peak this afternoon near Alpine, Wy.

12-18 inches expected on Teton and Togwotee Pass.

4-8 inches in the Snake River Canyon

1-2 inches expected in the Star Valley and Jackson areas with locally higher amounts expected in the Alpine and northern Jackson Hole areas as 2-5 inches is expected here especially in the higher benches.

25/10/2025

***First Atmospheric River Event Of the Season For Western Wyoming***

Good evening, everyone, after a very quiet few days weather wise we are about to get a wintery wakeup call as a moisture laden atmospheric river makes its way into Western Wyoming by tomorrow evening.

This system is expected to come in 3 waves with the last being the most intense.

Wave 1: This first round will be due to a strong cold front moving through Western Wyoming which will not have too much moisture with it and valley floor temperatures will likely stay warm enough to remain mostly wet. This wave is expected to pass through Saturday evening through about 1am on Sunday. With this wave little to no road impacts are expected except for a brief period on Togwotee and Teton Passes where a quick inch of snow is possible potentially leading to some flash freeze issues.

Wave 2: This wave is expected to impact Western Wyoming from Sunday early morning through Sunday late morning. This wave will carry with it more moisture and colder temperatures aloft which will decrease snow levels down to about 7,500 feet. This keeps valleys predominantly rain with a few wet flakes mixing in but will likely elevate western mountain pass road condition concerns. Current model runs are showing 1-2 inches on Teton Pass with 1-3 inches on Togwotee Pass. Given the amount of moisture coming in with this wave we would expect these totals to significantly increase over the coming model runs. At this point 3-5 inches seems probable given the amount of moisture we are working with and given the cold and efficient snow machine that exists aloft during this time.

Wave 3: This wave will impact Western Wyoming from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This is the main event and especially if this wave arrives slightly slower than forecast (Sunday evening) temperatures good drop enough to give us our first plowable snowfall of the season in especially Jackson, Snake River Canyon, Jackson Hole and the Star Valley. As temperatures are expected to be very borderline for this scenario to play out(mid to low 30's) we will hold off on mentioning any significant valley amounts yet but keep in the back of your mind for our next update tomorrow that this is certainly a possibility. As for accumulations with this wave a general inch can be expected across the western valleys with 1-3 inches for the Snake River Canyon. As for the mountain passes at least moderate road impacts can be expected here as an additional 4-6 inches of heavy snow can be expected for Teton and Togwotee Passes.

Remember this early season storms can be quite volatile and hard to forecast for especially with it being a relatively warm Pacific in nature storm system. Tomorrow we will make our final call on snowfall totals and timing for this system. Keep in mind the caveats we have mentioned above as these could change the forecast (especially the valleys) very abruptly. With that being said a widespread .4-.6 inches of rainfall equivalent is likely in the valleys with upwards of an inch on both Togwotee and Teton Passes. As always have a great night everyone and stay safe out there!

No images have been posted below due to the forecast having a higher variability than normal.

19/10/2025

12/10/2025

***Event Recap 10/11/2025***

Good morning everyone, hope you all had a safe night last night as Teton Pass did experience a pretty significant flash freeze last night and heavy snowfall leading to the first winter weather related closure of the year due to crashes(It has now since opened). Overall it appears that the forecast verified in most locations as most valley locations did transition over to a wet snow for at least an hour or 2 last night and into this morning resulting in a dusting to an inch of snow within Jackson Hole(Verified through cameras).

Cameras are currently out along Teton Pass but with reports coming in it does appear that our 3-5 inch forecast for Teton and Togwotee Pass did verify after we did some post storm radar analysis.

Southern areas of Star Valley also did receive some light snow as well as the Afton airport reported a dusting of snow as well. The only location that did now verify in our forecast so far is the northern reaches of the Star Valley such as Alpine where temperatures thankfully stayed just warm enough that precipitation remained as all rain during the event allowing for a flash freeze not to be verified here on local roadways.

The other exciting point to this storm was the much needed beneficial rainfall that it produced with many areas receiving.5 - 1 inch of liquid equivalent precipitation over the past 24 hours.

Please leave any reports or photos you have in the comments below so we can verify the forecast further. Have an amazing day everyone and we look forward to covering the next storm that comes into western Wyoming for you!

11/10/2025

Good evening everyone, the cold front has officially passed through the Star Valley as winds at the Alpine Airport have switched from being out of the south to out of the north. This will filter in significantly colder air and with ample moisture in place behind the frontal boundary a quick change over to snow is still likely late this evening or early overnight. This snowfall will likely come in hard and quick before drier air moves in by the morning turning off any remaining snow shower activity. Remember a flash freeze is possible later tonight which will potentially make travel on area roadways quite slippery! Drive safe everyone!

Expected accumulations

Star Valley - Jackson Hole - Dusting to 1 inch

Snake River Canyon and Star Valley Benches - 1-3 inches

Teton and Togwotee Passes - 3-5 inches

10/10/2025

***Quick Hitting Snow Fall Event For Western Wyoming Valleys and Mountains Sunday***

Good afternoon everyone now that short range model guidance is out and seems to be getting a better grasp of how our event this Saturday and Sunday unfolds we are now ready for our in depth discussion.

Most of the day on Saturday appears to be wet even in the mountains as deep tropical moisture and warm air aloft is expected to be in place in front of a strong cold front. This tropical moisture is coming in due to the remains of a topical system that is currently near the Baja of California. As the day progresses however the strong cold front will start to surge through the area decreasing snow levels to pass levels by 6pm. After 6pm a the cold front will have passed through the region allowing snow levels to drop to the valley floors by the midnight hour.

Models have recently come into agreement that trailing moisture behind the front won’t hang around as long as expected before but with favorable dynamics being in place for at least a few hours behind the front allowing for a brief bout of heavy snow to be expected across especially the Snake River Canyon and the Star Valley from 8pm to 11pm Saturday night. (If any changes in timing are expected we will do a follow up post).

After this initial surge of moisture light snowfall should continue to linger across mainly the western slopes of the Salts and Tetons throughout the Sunday morning hours.

Given the expected rainfall before the cold front and snow squalls move through a significant flash freeze event can be expected especially where temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20’s leading to very dangerous travel Saturday night and into Sunday morning across Teton and Togwotee Passes as well as potentially within the Snake River Canyon. All other areas are only expected to receive a low to moderate travel impact event out of this event.

As for snowfall totals most valley locations will be looking at a very quick dusting to an inch with locally higher amounts being possible along the Star Valley Benches and the Snake River Canyon where 1-3 inches is possible. As for Teton and Togwotee Passes 3-5 inches can be expected here as well as near the top of Granite Pass in the Big Horns.

Remember even though these totals are not significant the flash freeze threat and snow squall threat with this event is high which will lead to increased impacts across the western valleys and mountains. A similar event unfolded last year around this time which caused no unnecessary travel orders to be issued on western Wyoming roadways. Take this threat seriously and drive safe tomorrow night everyone!

10/10/2025

Missed the 5 years anniversary of this but 5 years and 2 months ago today we chased one of the most costly severe weather disasters in US history The Iowa Derecho. Up to 140 mph winds were estimated in our location during this video which is equivalent to a category 4 hurricane. By far the most intense storm chasing moment I have ever experienced and yes my storm chasing career has included at least 6 tornadoes that I have been within 100 yards of. When near tornadoes I can can control how close I am to them but this experience was different. Something I couldn’t control how close I was, something that I couldn’t move away from no matter how fast I drove. At one point I lost all visibility and just had to ride it out. This experience gave me a lot of respect for mother nature and has made me a lot more careful when near derechos such as this. This is the event that really got me into storm chasing and will forever have my respect.

08/10/2025

Extremely busy winter weather forecasting period ahead for us (especially for Western Wyoming). Here is the quick rundown and as always we will have our in depth discussion later on once higher resolution short range guidance is out.

System 1 - (October 12th) Advisory level snowfall expected in the western mountains (Over 6 inches) with the first accumulating snowfall of the year for the western valleys as well (70% chance of at least a dusting).

System 2 - The potential first actual snow storm is a bit further out but is definitely still worth watching (Oct 14-15) as a pretty potent trough comes in off the Pacific bringing increased moisture to the area. The odds of snowfall over 6 inches in western valley locations with this system are 60% and in the mountains 90%. Stay tuned as models have been pretty bullish on snowfall totals with this system consistently. It is still to far out for models to have a grasp on our boundary layer temperature profile(which makes forecasting in the valleys difficult this time of year) but the potential is there for significant valley snow fall as temperatures aloft and moisture quality are quite favorable for a short lived but heavy plowable snowfall event across the western valleys mid next week!