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Storm Front Specialists - Severe Weather Network Passionate Storm Front Specialists dedicated to forecasting the most significant storms. All posts provided by Meteorologist Sean Bagdon

Join us as we explore the power of nature and share our insights on severe weather phenomena.

Yesterday evening in Jackson, WY as an isolated strong thunderstorm passed off to the south to the north we were treated...
05/07/2025

Yesterday evening in Jackson, WY as an isolated strong thunderstorm passed off to the south to the north we were treated with quite a show of Mammatus and Rainbows!!!

***Highly Conditional But Potentially Significant Severe Weather Possible Across The Northern Plains 7/3/25***Good eveni...
03/07/2025

***Highly Conditional But Potentially Significant Severe Weather Possible Across The Northern Plains 7/3/25***

Good evening everyone, hope you all enjoyed the quiet streak of weather recently but that potentially could change tomorrow as a trough ejects out of the Northwester US and into the Northern Plains. This will be the tale of two very different possibilities as a highly conditional but potentially significant severe weather event is possible across North Dakota tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Going more in depth about this event it appears that a shortwave trough will eject out into the northern plains tomorrow afternoon and as this trough ejects southeasterly flow out into front of the trough will allow significant moisture advection to occur out in front of the trough bringing with it dew points in the low to mid 70’s allowing for potential destabilization to occur. With that being said lots of warm air aloft will likely hinder widespread storm development across North Dakota. But given steep mid level lapse rates and incredibly high surface dew points extreme instability will likely be realized in isolated areas. Given this and the potential for a low level jet out of the Southwest to strengthen to between 35-40 knots enough low level shear will be realized if surface temperatures can exceed 90 degrees that a significant tornado threat maybe realized as 0 -3 km SRH (Storm Relative Helicity Values) may exceed 400 m^2/s^2.

Note this is a high end tornado environment but only if the Convective inhibition layer can be breached. At this time there is a 30-50% chance of this occurring but it needs to be watch closely because if temps reach above the 90-95 degree threshold across eastern and central North Dakota a significant tornado threat cannot be ruled out. However regardless of if this occurs or not a significant hail threat is likely as steep mid level lapse rates and high PWAT values will allow for a potentially high end hail threat if models continue to follow current trends. An enhanced threat of severe weather maybe issued tomorrow by the Storm Prediction Center if it appears that the ridging aloft or Convective Inhibition will be breached tomorrow afternoon due to an enhanced tornado and hail threat.

02/07/2025

***Breaking News - Quiet Weather Remains Across the USA***

The weather across the US continues to remain very quiet for the foreseeable future. The only things to note at this time is the slight risk for flooding across the Desert Southwest due to monsoonal flow setting up across the area as well as some widely scattered severe storms which likely won’t amount to much over the next 3 or so days. There is also an area highlighted by the NHC for a moderate chance of tropical development but this will likely remain weak if it develops at all. But for now we will remain quiet as long as these smaller events don’t show and significant severe potential. This will be a good chance for us to take a break while we wait for the second week of July which appears to get much more active in the severe weather department. More on this to come later this week!

Happy 4th of July everyone enjoy your celebrations this week but not too much!!!

***Significant Severe Weather Possible In The Northern Plains 6/28/25***Good evening everyone, life has been a little bu...
28/06/2025

***Significant Severe Weather Possible In The Northern Plains 6/28/25***

Good evening everyone, life has been a little busy the past few days so it’s been hard to post but tomorrow looks potentially significant (more so than today) in terms of severe weather across the northern Plains and especially over southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota.

Discussion: Looking at short range model guidance it appears that an area of low pressure will eject out in front of the western trough that we have been watching out into the northern plains tomorrow. With this a stout low level jet (40-50kts) will evolve through the afternoon hours across southern Minnesota and Eastern South Dakota. Out in front of the aparent low accelerated surface flow (15-20kts) out of the southeast will help to elongate hodographs allowing for a potentially strong tornado threat especially across southern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. This combined with the usual corn sweat will create an extremely unstable and unCAPPED atmosphere by 3pm tomorrow as surface dew points rise into the low to mid 70’s across the region.

CAPE values in excess of 4000j/kg along a surface boundary across southern Minnesota should allow for supercell storms that do develop to contain a significant hail threat as well as a significant tornado threat if storms do anchor along this boundary. Posted in the images below is where we expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado based enhanced risk tomorrow and potentially introduce a 10% hatched area for significant tornados as long as clearing occurs along the boundary and the low level jet of 40-50 knots is realized.

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/24/25***Good afternoon Wyoming and Colorado tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has issued ...
24/06/2025

***Severe Weather Outlook 6/24/25***

Good afternoon Wyoming and Colorado tomorrow the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for a large portion of Eastern Wyoming and Northeastern Colorado. Not only is the typical severe hail risk in place for this set up but a tornado threat will exist as well!

No need to worry though this tornado threat will likely be isolated to two areas that we have observed on short range model guidance this evening. One along a moisture rich wind shift boundary in Northeastern Colorado and another along what appears to be a dry line bulge in Central Wyoming near Casper.

We have the greatest confidence in the tornado threat being realized in the Northeastern Colorado mode as shear profiles here look better than the northern mode and moisture looks much richer allowing for more instability to be realized in Northeast Colorado. As for the Central Wyoming mode some models show deeper moisture making a quick recovery but for the most part it appears that moisture will be late to arrive meaning any widespread tornado threat should be minimal here.

As for the large hail given that this is summer in the mountainous desert steep mid level lapse rates will likely lead to fat CAPE profiles capable of producing significant hail in any storms that do form (especially if they remain cellular). The highest threat for the largest hail will likely be in the Northeastern Colorado mode as well as higher PWAT values associated with these steeper mid level lapse rates will likely lead to a favorable environment for hail growth.

The significant severe wind threat (as always) will primarily reside in the Central and Eastern Wyoming mode where dryer air is expected to be in place at the surface meaning that any storms that do form with likely have very powerful cold pools that develop potentially leading to brief but intense 70mph gusts as storms become outflow dominant during the evening hours.

To summarize the wind shear is better closer to the northern mode if you look at jet shape but localized spinning due to backed southeasterly winds along a moisture gradient in Northeast Colorado will likely be the area where tornadoes and supercell storms will be most likely tomorrow due to the fact that surface moisture will be higher here. Further north along the dry line bulge dryer surface dew point suggest that significant winds gusts will be the main threat and if the atmosphere can become unCAPped upscale growth into a squall line could be possible in Wyoming if upper level flow maintains itself or strengthens into the evening hours. A derecho type event is not anticipated out of this system however as the is no significant down wind instability pool for the system to maintain its strength into the overnight hours.

As per usual let us know below if you have any questions and we will make sure to highlight the areas in the photo gallery below that have the highest probability of seeing significant severe weather within the slight risk tomorrow. Sleep well everyone!

Some local Wyoming and Montana webcams from this morning showing the wintery scenes from up in the mountains this mornin...
22/06/2025

Some local Wyoming and Montana webcams from this morning showing the wintery scenes from up in the mountains this morning. As anticipated the Beartooth Pass has been temporarily closed due to heavy snowfall and winter conditions and will likely reopen by either tomorrow or Tuesday depending on on the amount that ends up falling. At this time snow showers are starting to become more scattered as dry air is starting to work in aloft but as temperatures aloft continue to decrease throughout the day increased instability will likely lead to a renewal of snow shower activity by early afternoon. Stay safe out there everyone and enjoy the snow!!!

***High Elevation Winter Weather Event Forecast*** Good evening everyone, tomorrow looks to be an interesting one to say...
22/06/2025

***High Elevation Winter Weather Event Forecast***

Good evening everyone, tomorrow looks to be an interesting one to say the least especially above 7,000 feet in Western Wyoming, Eastern Idaho and Southern Montana. This will be due to moderate to heavy snowfall that is expected to develop overnight tonight especially across the mountains of Eastern Idaho and Southern Montana and Yellowstone. These are the areas we will especially have to watchout for(especially above 8,000ft) in terms of road impacts as the high June sun angle will have no impact on accumulations as snowfalls overnight. With that being said extremely warm surface temperatures are in place across the area meaning that it may take a while for grass and especially road surfaces to show accumulations.

On roadways above 8,000 feet moderate to high road impacts could be felt especially given the fact that most do not have snow tires on at this time. Accumulations of 2-5 inches can be expected between 8,000 and 10,000 feet with up to 8 inches being possible at the highest peaks. Expect snow to come to an end by late evening across all aforementioned areas as dry northwest flow aloft will start to win out behind the cold front shutting of any precipitation potential.

As for valley locations it will be a close call as temperatures aloft will be quite marginal for snow down to the 6,000 foot band. But a few flakes cannot be ruled out tomorrow morning in both Jackson Hole, the Northern Star Valley and the Teton Valley of Idaho as temperatures aloft briefly dip below the -5 to -6 degree Celsius we need them to in order to suggest snow mixing in at the surface.

Again to recap any high elevation roadways (especially those above 8,000 feet) including Togwotee Pass, Bear Tooth Pass, Yellowstone roadways and any roads above 8,000 feet that go through the Gallatin Range in Southwestern Montana will likely see moderate impacts at times due to moderate and heavy snow bands that are expected to develop over the next few hours and last through the overnight hours and will slowly lessen in intensity throughout the day tomorrow. Have a great night everyone and stay safe if driving through especially Yellowstone, Beartooth Pass or Togwotee Pass tonight and into tomorrow.

***Classic Northwestern US Winter Storm (High Elevation) in Summer***Tomorrow we will have a post out regarding the mode...
21/06/2025

***Classic Northwestern US Winter Storm (High Elevation) in Summer***

Tomorrow we will have a post out regarding the moderate high elevation snow event for Sunday early morning into Sunday Evening for the higher elevations (7,500+ feet) for the Tetons, Yellowstone, Bear Tooth Pass, and the Gallatin Range and Big Sky. Up to 8 inches will be possible above 8,000 feet especially in Southwestern Montana! Even the Teton Valley and northern Star Valley in Wyoming and Idaho could see some early morning flakes mix in(Sunday Morning)if dry air does not mix in behind the system too early.

Normally we wouldn’t make to much of a big deal out of this but given the fact that the heaviest snow is expected in areas where tourists are likely to be we have to keep a very close eye on this event in regards to road conditions and road closures (especially for Yellowstone and Beartooth). Have a great evening everyone and stay safe on Sunday we will be back with a more in depth break down of this event tomorrow evening. Winter storm warnings may be needed!

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