Karen Williams Weather

17/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

The most recognizable feature on the satellite today is the spin of the weak low pressure disturbance over the western coast of Louisiana. Locally, there will not be too much impact from this feature with the exception of a plume of deep tropical moisture that will skirt our southwestern counties. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will be isolated with slightly higher coverage possible in these southwest counties. Convection will quickly wane with the loss of diurnal support after sunset.

The midlevel ridge centered over the western Atlantic will expand its grip farther westward across the area as the weak low moves further toward the Louisiana coast. As a result, high temperatures are likely to be a couple of degrees warmer, ranging from the low to mid 90s area wide.
Afternoon feel like temperatures will likely reach the 100-104 range across most of the area Thursday afternoon, with a few spots potentially nudging 105. Any afternoon or evening convection will again be quite isolated before diminishing after sunset.

16/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

Rain chances shift to Middle Georgia as the low pressure system moves across Florida. This area is more likely to see waves of precipitation due to the tropical environment. Main threats are gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. With the rainfall and temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat index values should stay in the 100-105 range.

Models are in agreement with a tropical disturbance moving across north Florida and out over the Northern Gulf today. This feature is expected to track west over the next 48 hours over southern Louisiana on Thursday. While not expected to pose a direct threat to Georgia, this disturbance will provide sufficient moisture to the region. As a result, expect daytime driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the weekend. Although the threat of severe storms is low in this pattern, sufficient moisture and surface heating could produce a few strong storms. Given the moisture, any training or slow moving storms could pile up the rainfall.

Temperatures will trend well into the mid to upper 90s.

15/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

An area of low pressure highlighted by the National Hurricane Center pushes westward across Florida while high pressure stays in place to the west. This will result in an easterly flow pushing up against the current westerly flow which could prove interesting for our area. Models have been indicating the potential for a zone to set up over the I-85 corridor which in turn would cause a slower moving precipitation band to form. This could lead to the potential for flooding if the band is able to remain stationary for a longer period of time.

Temperatures on Tuesday will reach the mid 90s but the heat index values are expected to be in the 100-104 range.

15/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

Starting off with a fairly rinse and repeat conditions today. Modest high pressure and ridging keeps temperatures hot with flow from the West to Southwest. Dew points in the 70s and temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will mean feel like temperatures could reach over 105 degrees for extended periods!

Precipitation chances Monday will be limited, particularly in Western Georgia where the high is stronger though isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in eastern and far northern coverage area. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Conditions change Tuesday as we watch for an area of modest tropical development off the GA/FL coast. Models are in fairly high agreement given the fact that this feature hasn’t yet formed. Let’s assume that something forms. This feature will drift along the base of a high bringing southeast flow into the area. This flow will be very moist, and will likely trigger a slow-moving (possibly stationary) line of thunderstorms stretching from NE to the SW. The exact location of this feature will be in question until the tropical low becomes apparent, however, current models really want to set this up along the I-85 corridor which includes Atlanta metro. Although flow isn’t strong, definitely remain vigilant of slow moving rainmakers in urban areas.

Heat indices on Tuesday will be dependent on thunderstorm coverage. Areas that do not receive precipitation or cloud coverage could be hot. Be prepared for heat indices of 105 to 110 through midweek.

10/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

Moving into the latter portion of the week, we begin to lose our persistent pattern of troughing and shifts toward a more quasi-zonal pattern as the Bermuda High moves westward. Deep layer flow continues to support the conveyor belt of moisture into the Southeast, reinforced by moisture-rich southwesterly flow along the western edge of the Bermuda High.

As a result of our moist environment, we will see the potential for precipitation-loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms. A Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk has been issued across nearly all of north and Middle Georgia. In concert with the slightly bolstered severe chances, lack of steering flow will mean that storms that form may move little and perhaps even back build at times. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not anticipated.

Little change is forecast moving forward into Friday and similar conditions are to be expected, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing through the afternoon.

Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Humidity will feel like 98 to 104 degrees. Lows will drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

09/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

As we move into the middle of the week and beyond, we retain our pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, a stronger shortwave will provide a bit more oomph to convective coverage for some today. A deep layer flow supports a conveyor belt of moisture into the Southeast, and this is reinforced at the surface by additional moisture-rich southwesterly flow along the western edge of the Bermuda High. Convective initiation has become scattered to numerous in coverage this afternoon. Instability will be bolstered due to surging moisture.

As a result of our moist environment, we will see the potential for precipitation-loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area where a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been introduced by the Storm Prediction Center. In concert with the bolstered severe chances, the lack of steering flow will mean that storms that form may move little and perhaps even back build at times. A narrow corridor across far southeast Central GA has been outlooked in a Slight (level 2 out 5) Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

Moving into Thursday, similar conditions are expected with even more widespread afternoon thunderstorms than today. The SPC has introduced a Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk across far east Central GA, again highlighting increased chances for strong water-loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated damaging gusts.

Highs for Thursday will be generally cooler than we’ve seen in the past few days, in the mid-80s to mid-90s, thanks to increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover.

09/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

The weather pattern will continue to be characterized as the rain roulette- some will get soaked, others not so much. The combination of a series of short waves rounding the base of eastward troughs and moisture transport along the western edge of the Bermuda High will support a return to the diurnally-driven thunderstorm chances that are characteristic of summertime. A moisture rich airmass will continue to fill in across the region over the next few days, and convective coverage will increase. As it does, so will chances for scattered to numerous perhaps widespread thunderstorms across all of North and Middle Georgia through Wednesday. Instability will be on the lower side by summer standards, so we are not expecting much in the way of severe storm activity. An isolated strong to perhaps marginally severe storm impact (mostly an isolated damaging wind gust) cannot be ruled out.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s except for the far northeast GA, which will be in the upper 70s to 80s. For Wednesday, expect highs to be a few degrees cooler under the influence of greater cloud cover far more numerous storms. With the surging moisture and humidity, widespread maximum “feel like” temperatures will be between 100-104 degrees through midweek. Lows will drop into the 60s to mid 70s.

08/07/2025

For my Florida followers, this is your incentive to fill your preparedness supplies.

Tell a friend to tell a friend 📢

Beginning August 1, 2025 - There will be a PERMANENT sales tax exemption here in Florida for preparedness supplies.

This is the perfect opportunity to stock up on items for your disaster kit - tarps, batteries, generators, life jackets, sunscreen, and more!

To build your disaster supply kit, visit myescambia.com/beready or FloridaDisaster.org/Kit

08/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

For the long term, we will be in a hum/drum summer pattern. Tropical moisture will continue to feed into the Southeast courtesy of southwesterly flow around the Bermuda High.

We expect each day will bring at least scattered if not widespread diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms. Any weak disturbances could amplify the intensity of daily convection. In true Georgia summertime fashion, a few storms each day could be strong to severe, with gusty to localized damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Generally speaking, the potential for widespread organized severe weather remains low. If anything, the weak flow aloft may support slow-moving or stationary storms that produce heavy rainfall over a given area for an extended period of time.

Showers and storms and the resulting cloud cover will have a big impact on how high heat index values climb each day. In general, values will range from 100-105 degrees across much of Central and Eastern Georgia each day. Isolated locales could have values reach 108-110 degrees.

Be sure to limit your time outdoors, stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

03/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

Compared to some of the previous days, we finally have a relatively tame forecast on tap for the short term. Shower chances remain somewhat elevated in Middle Georgia as moisture is pooled ahead of a mostly stalled front currently sitting approximately along the I-85 corridor. Behind that front, skies have mostly cleared.

The trough that brought the front initially into the area has progressed out into the Atlantic. Another trough will follow in its wake across the Northeast. Tonight the cold front will continue to progress further south, and will be reinforced by the trough moving across the Northeast. This will keep most of the area dry tomorrow, with the exception of east central GA where a few isolated storms will be possible. Severe weather is not anticipated.

Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow relatively drier air will filter in and bring temps to the upper 90s across much of the area. Heat indices will range from the lower 90s in the north to upper 90s in Middle Georgia each day.

02/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

A drying trend begins during the day. There will be a significantly decreased threat for thunderstorms today. Some lingering moisture is anticipated over Middle Georgia into Eastern Georgia where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A few isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible northward into the Atlanta metro during the afternoon tomorrow, due to a combination of daytime heating and lingering moisture.

Models are in good agreement on the overall pattern of a strengthening ridge over the mid Mississippi Valley by Friday and a remnant low over Florida. This is the same system responsible for the National Hurricane Center 30% area outlook. The Southeast region will be under the influence of both the dry northwest flow on the east side of the ridge and the dry side of the low. The end result will be a drying trend as well as a warming trend with temps 3 to 5 degrees above average Thursday through Saturday and very low but not zero percent chance of precipitation.

01/07/2025

Middle Georgia Forecast:

For today, we are expecting our pattern of weather to shift with the upper-level trough to swing eastward and dragging a frontal boundary southward across the area into Wednesday. This front will serve as an area of forcing over the area contributing to increased instability. Models are suggesting a linear formation for these storms as they push across Georgia into the evening and early overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather and flooding.

Storms should limit temperatures to the upper 80s to low 90s however, it still looks to remain hot and humid over the short term.