08/12/2025
Sahel on Fire: Why Nigeria Must Stop the Domino of Coups Now Or Pay Dearly Later
Every Tuesday in Athena Perspectives, our weekly publication, we run BCCN News—a window into Benin, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. We created it because most Nigerians know little about our neighbours, even though our fate is tied to theirs.
The coup in Niger is a textbook example. It is directly responsible for the renewed terror offensive in the Northeast and Northwest. The Junta stated that it toppled Bazoum to combat corruption, stabilise the economy, and restore security.
What Niger Was Before the Coup
The per capita income has increased by 26% over the past decade.
The World Bank projected 7% growth in 2023 and 12.5% in 2024.
Inflation held at 4%, the lowest in the regional monetary union.
Zero school days lost in 2022 — rare stability in the Sahel.
What Niger Became After the Coup
600,000 more people in need of aid — now 4.3 million.
Extreme poverty is rising to 52%.
370,000 internally displaced, mostly women and children.
Grain prices: rice up 35%, others 12%+.
$519 million debt default, with four missed payments.
The 2024 growth forecast was nearly halved.
Military spending oversight scrapped — corruption widening.
And the greatest irony: They claimed they seized power to improve security. Instead, ISWAP and ISIS-Sahel have gained more ground, moving freely through Niger’s ungoverned spaces.
How This Boomeranged on Nigeria
After the coup, Western partners withdrew, creating a security vacuum that jihadists quickly filled.
Today:
ISWAP corridors stretch from Mali to Niger and Nigeria, extending toward the Gulf of Guinea.
Our 1,500 km border with Niger is now a porous pipeline for weapons, fighters, kidnappers, and traffickers.
The humanitarian collapse in Niger spills into our fragile northern states. Our security crisis worsened after the coup, not before it.
If Benin, already under jihadist pressure, falls to a coup, Nigeria’s western flank will tear open. We would be fighting on four fronts: the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, and the West African coast.
Those who preach “sovereignty” forget a truism: a burning neighbourhood does not respect your fence.
Coups in the Sahel do not stay “internal.” They create ungoverned spaces where extremists grow, recruit, and migrate. Niger’s collapse is already feeding Nigeria’s insecurity. If this domino of coups continues, Boko Haram will look like child’s play.
Some intelligence and projections are too sensitive to publish, but the trend is unmistakable. West Africa is drifting into dangerous waters. Nigeria cannot pretend it is someone else’s storm.
I support military action in Benin, but the President must obtain Senate approval, even if rules must be amended for the sake of national security.
We must firmly say no to coups in our neighbourhood. Period.
Osita Chidoka
08 December 2025
