SCMWeather

SCMWeather Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

A system moving through late tonight into Thursday will bring a soaking rain to the area, where the slow movement may ac...
09/24/2026

A system moving through late tonight into Thursday will bring a soaking rain to the area, where the slow movement may actually be a good thing for a change.

💧 Rain should begin moving into western areas between 2–4AM Thursday before gradually spreading east throughout the morning. It won't be in a hurry to make eastward progress, keeping the steadiest rain focused across western Minnesota for a good portion of the day.

While much of the area needs the rain, west-central areas is where we could use it most. Drought conditions have actually improved for many areas, but parts of west-central Minnesota have actually seen drought conditions worsen as of lately.

🌧 By the time everything wraps up, we should see 0.50–1" in the west, with localized totals of 1–1.5" possible, tapering to 0.25" or less further east. I'm using a blend forecast for this graphic, and I think it could be a bit too low across eastern areas.

Rain will gradually end from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening.

➕ It certainly won't erase our rainfall deficits, but every little bit helps. For many areas, we've been slowly but surely chipping away at the deficits lately, and tomorrow should provide another opportunity to make some progress.

Happy first day of fall! 🍂 This year, Mother Nature actually got the memo too.As some of you know, there are two differe...
09/22/2026

Happy first day of fall! 🍂 This year, Mother Nature actually got the memo too.

As some of you know, there are two different ways we define the beginning of fall. Meteorological fall began back September 1st, while Astronomical fall begins today with the with the autumnal equinox.

🌡 Unlike some years where the calendar says fall while the thermometer screams otherwise, it actually FEELS like it today! Under the most persistent cloud cover, temps have stayed in the upper 50s, while areas with sunshine have risen into the 60s.

The "fall feels" aren't going anywhere particularly quick, either. Cooler than average temps stick around through the end of the work week, with rain chances returning by Wednesday night also.

The calendar and the atmosphere have finally agreed on something, so if you've been waiting for hoodie and apple c***r weather, now is your time to shine! 🍁🍎

The heaviest rain has wrapped up across the area, but it left behind some hefty totals, and significant flooding, across...
09/19/2026

The heaviest rain has wrapped up across the area, but it left behind some hefty totals, and significant flooding, across southeastern Minnesota.

💦 Rainfall of 0.5–2" was common across much of the region over the past 48 hours, while areas farther north generally received less than 0.50". Across parts of the southeast though, training thunderstorms last night resulted in a corridor of 4–8"+.

Shown here are some of the highest totals, with the winner so far being near Houston at 8.29"!

Unfortunately, widespread flooding continues in these areas, and rivers, creeks and low-lying areas will remain a concern as all of that runoff works its way through the system.

🌧 Additional rain is possible through tonight, with very light amounts for most. The exception is the far southeast, where another round could produce locally heavier rainfall with amounts in excess of 0.50". While relatively light, falling on saturated ground, it won't take much additional rainfall to cause problems.

For those in southeastern Minnesota, please continue to avoid flooded roads and never drive around barricades. Remember...

⚠ Turn Around. Don't Drown. ⚠

Well stuff me full of straw and call me a scarecrow, it sure looks and feels a lot like Autumn out there today, doesn't ...
09/18/2026

Well stuff me full of straw and call me a scarecrow, it sure looks and feels a lot like Autumn out there today, doesn't it?

🌡 Light to moderate rain continues across the area early this afternoon, with the forecast from last night generally on track. The widespread rainfall has kept temps cool, with most areas in the upper 50s and low 60s, though it's a bit more muggy than the "typical" Autumn day.

This slug of rain will continue east-northeast this afternoon, with showers continuing to develop on the backside of it, keeping some areas soggy through late afternoon.

🌧 The more significant rainfall threat continues to loom for this evening in the southeast, though some model guidance is suggesting it may materialize a bit north of the area previously anticipated. I'll be keeping an eye on that this afternoon into the evening hours.

For now, those of you who have been longing for fall, enjoy the cool and wet day. You deserve it! 🍂

After a serious overperforming system last night, we're not done with the wet weather just yet. Additional showers and t...
09/18/2026

After a serious overperforming system last night, we're not done with the wet weather just yet. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to lift across the area over the next 24-48 hours, bringing potential for localized heavy rain and flooding.

🌩️ Round #1: Late Tonight into Friday Morning
The first wave of showers and storms arrives after 2AM tonight and lingers into Friday. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.50-1.50" are likely. However, high-res model guidance continues to focus a localized band of heavier rainfall somewhere near the US-12 corridor, where enhanced convergence could push totals over 1.50"+.

🚨 Round #2: Late Friday Afternoon through Night
Renewed thunderstorm activity is expected late Friday afternoon, with the highest concern shifting toward Southeast Minnesota into the overnight hours.

High-res model guidance has been tossing out localized totals of 3-6" in as little as 3-6 hours. Should that occur, flash flooding would become likely. A Flood Watch is in effect for southeastern areas through 1PM Saturday for this potential.

💨 Beyond the rain, Friday will feature a distinct taste of early autumn. Highs will struggle to get out of the 50s and low 60s across the region, accompanied by breezy conditions.

I'll be keeping a close eye on trends overnight as this first wave lifts in. How much rain did your gauge catch last night? Drop your totals and town in the comments below!

The next few days are going to be very active across the area with showers and storms tonight, with a more widespread an...
09/16/2026

The next few days are going to be very active across the area with showers and storms tonight, with a more widespread and significant rainfall likely Friday into Saturday morning.

🌧️ Showers and storms are developing across western Minnesota late this afternoon and will continue moving east tonight. This will bring light rain for most, with any heavier totals of 0.25-0.50" being more isolated and "streaky" (as depicted in the high-res model guidance shown in the second graphic).

Rain will exit to the east late Thursday morning, giving us a brief break from the rain before the main event develops early Friday morning.

🌧 Anomalously high amounts of atmospheric moisture will arrive late Thursday night, setting the stage for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall early Friday through Friday night. There is a Level 2 risk of excessive rainfall across most of the area during this time, with early model guidance pointing towards a broad swath of 2-4" of rain.

⚠ Right now, I expect the heaviest totals to set up south of US-12, though I'll be keeping a close eye on model guidance trends over the next 24 hours. Localized flooding is definitely on the table for spots that see the heaviest, most persistent rainfall.

🌡 Lastly, this system will deliver a reminder that fall is right around the corner. Under the steadiest rain, temps on Friday will stay in the low to mid 60s with breezy easterly winds, making it feel very fall-like!

Are you excited for the more fall-like weather? Or do you wish summer would stick around longer? Sound off in the comments below! ⬇

Showers have moved east of the region early this afternoon, leaving behind a soaking in areas that desperately needed it...
09/08/2026

Showers have moved east of the region early this afternoon, leaving behind a soaking in areas that desperately needed it. The automated rainfall estimates shown here match up pretty well with ground reports, with the highest reports coming in north of the Twin Cities.

⛈️ As a cold front advances across the area later today, a few additional scattered storms could pop up. However, given the ample cloud cover lingering across the area, the probability of additional widespread storms has dropped significantly.

🚨 As a result, the severe weather threat is virtually nil. While I don't expect severe-level storms, an isolated storm or two could get frisky enough to produce some small hail, gusty winds, and brief torrential rainfall.

🌤️ Behind today's cold front, the next couple days will be quiet with lots of sunshine. Active weather looks to return by late in the week into the weekend though, along with noticeably cooler temperatures possible as well.

How much rain ended up in your gauge last night into this morning? Drop your totals in the comments below ⬇

🔧 Happy Labor Day! 🇺🇸 For those who have today off, what are you doing to enjoy the extended holiday weekend?I'm sure yo...
09/07/2026

🔧 Happy Labor Day! 🇺🇸 For those who have today off, what are you doing to enjoy the extended holiday weekend?

I'm sure you don't need me to tell you, but it's a nearly perfect late-summer day with plenty of sunshine and temps in the mid 70s to near 80°F. A couple rounds of storms are on the way though, so get out and enjoy it while you can.

🌩️ Round 1: An area of showers and storms in South Dakota is pushing east, reaching the SD/MN border after 3-4PM and track across the northern two-thirds of the area (near and north of US-212). Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

⛈️ Round 2: A cold front pushing into the region late tonight will spark off a second round of showers and storms, most likely after 11PM-Midnight.

🚨 Storm Risk Breakdown: While a Level 1 Risk covers parts of the area, the overall severe weather threat is low.

Heavy rainfall and very localized flooding is the greatest risk, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail up to quarter size and wind gusts to 60mph.

Model guidance has been all over the place with the placement of the storms tonight, so my map reflects the middle ground. As with any summer storm, expect localized higher and lower amounts than what's shown here.

🔮 Additional showers and storms remain likely tomorrow afternoon. However, we'll need to see how tonight’s storms behave before getting a clearer picture on what Tuesday afternoon brings.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday afternoon, friends!

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