Tiki Tim’s Forecast, Abaco (2025)

29/09/2025

Tiki Mal’s Forecast; Monday September 29th. Your not a great beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas.
A squally, windy and wet day all due to TS Imelda’s impacts. A tropical storm warning remains.

The heaviest rain has already fallen, but another 1-3 inches is possible today. As batches of rain move through, you’ll see sustained winds anywhere from 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. As the center of Imelda moves away tonight the storm will strengthen. We’ll see the best chance of those 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph on the backside tonight/overnight. Tuesday looks windy too with late day improvements.

Tides; low 7:38 am, high 2:09 pm and low at 8:52 pm.

Tiki Mal’s Tip of the Day: as TT says, not your first rodeo but never worth the risk. Sit tight today

Today’s Image: the latest NHC forecast

28/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Sunday, Not so Funday Sept 28th. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Overcast with rain turning heavy at times through tomorrow. High of 83 with winds East at 20-26 mph, increasing to 41-47 mph tonight and early tomorrow. Barometer is at 29.83 dropping to 29.65. Humidity is 82% and the cloud cover 100%. Offshore waves 7 ft and building. Watch for heavy surf and and life threatening rip currents. On the Sea of Abaco it’s pretty much a lay day as heavy rain and later on heavy winds develop. Water temp is 83. In Hope Town it’s raining and 80 with a 20 mph E wind. Tides; High at 1:02pm and low at 7:13pm.

Eye on the Tropics. Soon to be Imelda is taking her good old time, making any kind of name for herself. Right now, a tropical depression but will build into a hurricane eventually by late Monday or Tuesday. I’m going to call in our Head and Chief Meteorologist, Tiki Mal for duties tomorrow, as no doubt a lot will develop between now and then.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A faster motion to the north-northwest is expected to
begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move across the
central and northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight and
approach the southeast U.S. coast early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane
by late Monday or Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA G-IV dropsonde data
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

What we know, and what you need to know.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning later today and in the northwestern Bahamas late this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the east coast of Florida on Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across eastern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches
across the northwest Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by this system and Hurricane Humberto will be responsible for Dangerous and life threatening rip currents and high waves.

Don’t forget, Tiki Mal takes the helm tomorrow and will keep you posted of any changes or developments before then.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Be prepared and lets get through this with next to zero losses. Think before you react, and above all everyone be safe. This isn’t the first rodeo.

Today’s Image; An otherwise pleasant picture of a World Class destination, Jackass Cove where you don’t necessarily need a palm tree for paradise! Enjoy!

Be Safe. ~TT and TM~

27/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Saturday Sept 27th. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Overcast with showers and winds beginning to increase SE at 18-20 mph. Showers possible and a high of 85. Barometer is at 29.85 to 29.77 and the humidity is 77% with 50% cloud cover. Offshore waves increasing to 6 ft. On the Sea of Abaco, time to tie up and make some preparations for soon to be developing Imelda. Water temperature is 83 with a UV of 8. In Hope Town it’s 84 with a shower and an 18 Mph SE wind.

Eye on the Tropics; We are knowing a bit more about soon to be developing Imelda but it’s still quite difficult. One of the predictions regarding Imelda and Humberto is looking somewhat like it’s coming true. Humberto, despite being born before Imelda is robbing the cradle so to speak, and like many young lovers is drawing future Imelda slightly out to sea. Sorry Peeps but I’m a hopeless romantic that can’t describe this cat and mouse game any other way. The Northwestern Bahamas and areas surrounding are under a Tropical Storm Warning. The pulling of Imelda, by Humberto, even slightly out to Sea will affect the area’s conditions and is a welcome game changer we hope. Meanwhile, here ate the facts as of 8 am this morning

Imelda’s position 20 N and 75.9 W or 110 miles South of the Central Bahamas moving a7 7 NW with sustained winds of 35 mph. Should become a hurricane by early Tuesday and when/if it does, it will be somewhat North of the area.

Humberto’s Position; 22.3 N and 59.3 W and a major hurricane at this point. Sustained winds 145 and moving W at 6 mph. Humberto will pull NE gradually today and tonight.

Regardless of the “relationship” these two are forming, here is what we know and what you need to know about upcoming conditions in the next days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and in the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible
in eastern Cuba, and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Bahamas. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Stay weather aware and check your forecast frequently.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Had to share this as evidently it was a homework assignment, and this 8 year old kid has it figured out. Thanks to Emma Knight for sharing this so I could share with you. Ya gotta love this little gal. See Image 1

Today’s Image 2 ; Here is the suspected track of Imelda as of 8am.

26/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Friday Sept 26th. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. A mostly cloudy morning followed by periods of sun and clouds later today. High of 85 with SSE winds 12-15. Barometer is at 29.85 and the humidity is 79% with 40% cloud cover. Offshore waves 4.3 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco a moderate chop with clouds and sun this afternoon. Water temp is 85 and the UV index is a 7. In Hope Town it’s 84 degrees and a shower with a 14 mph SSE wind.
Tides; High 11:37 am, low at 6:08pm and high at 11:54pm.

Eye/s on the Tropics; Peeps, this forecast is among the toughest puzzles I have had to try and solve since I started doing this 13 years ago. Due to the closeness of now Hurricane Humberto and Invest 94 which will no doubt be a named Tropical Storm, Imelda this weekend. (Make sure you hide your shoes.) AND if you do, ya’ll are showing your age. In all seriousness, this could have either severe impacts with flooding and heavy rains, to an absolute nothing burger. When one storm’s characteristics affect another one’s, weather uncertainty rules, and if anyone tells you differently they are lying. So here’s what we know. Much will depend on future Imelda’s development before we have a clear picture, so what does that mean. Prepare, prepare prepare! Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and closely monitor future updates.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. And frequently.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Monitoring two storms, is like monitoring two girlfriends. In the long run, it’s nothing but confusion.

Today’s Image; When you get to a place like this in the morning before anyone else, it lets you know what a perfect day it will be.

~TT and TM~

25/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Thursday Sept 25th. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Overcast with some morning showers and perhaps a peak or two of sun later this afternoon. Otherwise unsettled conditions remaining for the rest of the day. High of 85 with SSE winds 8-9mph. Barometer is at 29.94 and the humidity is 81%. Cloud cover is 75%. Offshore waves 3.3 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco, you would be better off making preparations to your boat and residence, than anything else even though there is a moderate chop and 85 degree water temperature. UV is 7 with showers in places. In Hope Town it’s raining and overcast with a temperature of 83 and a SSE wind 8-9. Tides; High at 11:08 am, low at 5:27pm and high 11:16pm.

Eye on the Tropics; 00 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025...
Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it
moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become
a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and
northwest Bahamas in a couple of days. Interests in the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across that region regardless of development.
Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should
also monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30, with special outlooks issued at any time as conditions warrant. The fact that both systems having a high chance of formation could evolve into a very rare conditions called Fujiwhara which is when two developing systems effect one another. Some tings we know and some we have no idea of.

1. Will Humberto and Future Imelda combine to produce the Perfect Storm? Highly unlikely because of the timeline of tropical development.

2; Could one storm push the other or pull the other a certain direction? Yes, very possible and the only way to predict that with this phenomenon happening is to check back on your forecasts as much as possible.

3: Do they know when and where they will strike? If you say yes, you’re lying. I can guarantee however that the Northwestern Bahamas will be affected in some way shape or form due to tropical development. Depends on the formations timeline. Stay Weather Alert, and we will too.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Be ready now regardless.

Today’s Images;

Image 1: What we wish it looked like.

Image 2; What it does look like.

24/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Wednesday Sept 24th. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Partly sunny and a high of 85. Winds ESE at 8-10 with peaks of sun mostly all morning and mid afternoon followed by some clouds and showers later on at 2 ish. Barometer is at 29.97 and the humidity is 78% with 80% cloud cover. Offshore wave heights 3.5 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco it’s a moderate chop and a chance of scattered showers in the PM. Water temp if 84. UV index is a 7. In Hope Town it’s 83 and aa few clouds with ESE wind at 10 mph. Tides; High 10:26 am, low 4:48pm and high at 10:40pm.

Eye on the Tropics;(AL93) and AL 94.

Things are now heating up out there and unfortunely we have a one two punch with not one developing storm but two. These two systems should be named, at least the first one which will be Humberto in the next 48 hours. The two systems intermingling with one another could happen resulting in a phenomenon called Fujiwhara. Here is the official NHS forecast both. On a personal note, I’d begin to make preparations on both interests land and water. Now is the time.

Invest 93
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to
move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall
and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey
this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Our mail arrived yesterday and an evelope fell onto the porch which perplexed me. I stood around it all day without picking it up. When asked why by “Headquarters” I had to enlighten her on the cold hard facts. The Envelope said “Do not bend.” So be damned if I was going to pick it up.

Today’s Images;

Image one; Calm before the storm/s

Image Two; The NHC’s tracking of the two storms of interest; Be prepared and let time be on your side.

~TT and TM~

23/09/2025

Eye on The Tropics; Hello and good morning. Here is the latest from NHC to shed some light on the preliminary of these two tropical waves out there. Please heed to and do what you feel is necessary. We will keep you in the know. Thank you! ~TT and TM~

23/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Tuesday Sept 23rd. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Overcast with some sun and partly cloudy conditions after 11. Chance of a shower in spots. High of 85. Winds ESE at 8-9 mph. Barometer is at 29.94 and the humidity is 78%. Cloud cover will vary but currently 78% on the cloudy side, improving slightly later. Offshore wave heights 5 ft and inshore on the Sea of Abaco watch for a shower, otherwise overcast with peaks of sun and clouds later with a light to moderate chop. Water temperature matching yesterday’s and 84. UV index of 6. In Hope Town it’s 83 under overcast skies with an 8 mph ESE wind. Tides; High 9:51 am, low 4:10pm and high 10:05 pm. There you have it. EXCEPT THIS!

Eye on the Tropics: Gabrielle is now a thing of the past as far as involvement with the area, but as expected, it’s getting busy out there. Two disturbances out there who could hatch into storms or depressions. Both quite close to one another with so far one vying to skirt the area perhaps by weekend. We will keep you posted, but due to this developing situation interests here should make some preparations and watch closely. The last thing we want to see is these two systems getting too close if you get my drift.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; May the sunshine work wonders and your cellphone discharge. Everyone needs that in their life now and then.

Today’s Image; Today being the first full day of fall, you still haven’t changed my mind. I’ll take this arrangement over jack o lanterns and hay bails any day of the week. You can keep the shells afterwards and there is no clean up.

~TT and TM~

22/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Monday Sept 22nd. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Nothwestern Bahamas. Sun and clouds and an overcast pm with showers and a high of 86. Winds ESE 7-10 mph. Barometer is at 29.94 and the humidity is 81%. 70% cloud cover. Offshore wave heights building to 5 ft. In the Sea of Abaco sun and clouds with a light to moderate chop. Watch for drizzle or showers later. Water temp is 83 today. UV is a 7. In Hope Town it’s cloudy with a brief shower and 83. Tides; High at 9:16am, low at 3:30pm and high t 9:30pm

Eye on the Tropics; Gaprielle is now hurricane strength and will be turning East of Bermuda. There is another one following which cloud develop towards the end of the week. Hopefully this one will follow suit and track the same way.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; Fall arrives today around 2 pm depending on your location. In my humble opinion, you can take your pumpkin spice and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. I’m not quite through with my Margarita yet.

Today’s Image; The Path to Paradise!

~TT and TM~

21/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Sunday FUNDAY Sept 21st. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Mostly cloudy with some showers later and a high of 86. Winds East 8-9 mph. Barometer will settle around 29.88 with 79% humidity and 80% cloud cover. Offshore wave heights 4-4.5 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco be weather aware and watch for showers later. Light chop. In Hope Town it’s 83 and cloudy with 9 mph East winds. Tides; High 8:38 am, low 2:49pm and high at 8:54pm.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day: No sailor ever learned anything in calm seas.

Today’s Images; Image 1; A gorgeous sunshine sunrise complete with color. Thanks to Beachcomber Bar and Grill for sharing this.

Image 2; Eye on the Tropics; Gabby as they are calling her is beginning to take her turn Northeast. Sounding the All Clear. The Yellow Blob behind it will more than likely take the same path.

Enjoy your Sunday! ~TT and TM~

20/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s Forecast; Saturday Sept 20. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Partly cloudy with clouds and sun with a good chance of pm showers or drizzle. Winds N to NNE at 5-8 mph. High of 86 with a 29.88 to 29.97 barometer and 79% humidity. Cloud cover 70%. Offshore wave heights 3.5 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco it’s smooth going but watch for a shower or two. Water temperature is 85. UV index is an 8 today. In Hope Town it’s 82 with overcast conditions and a NNE wind at 5. Tides; High was at 7:57 am, low at 2:06pm and high at 8:16pm.

Eye on the Tropics; Danielle is now forecasted to become a hurricane by Sunday morning but mostly all models call for a turn to the N/NE even earlier than Erin, so no threat to the area. Thank you Mother Nature.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; I found another retirement hack where you are working and have 300 people under you! Somehow working on the grounds crew at the cemetery just didn’t cut it though.

Today’s Image; “Nobody knows where you’re going, nobody knows where you’re from.”

~TT and TM~

19/09/2025

Tiki Tim’s forecast; Friday Sept 19. Your beach, boating and bathing forecast for the Abaco’s and Northwestern Bahamas. Some sun and clouds with showers or drizzle in the afternoon and a high of 84. Winds light and variable at 5-6 mph. Barometer is at 29.85 and the humidity is 81% with 65% cloud cover. Offshore wave heights 4 ft. Inshore on the Sea of Abaco it’s a light chop, watch for showers. Water temperature is 85. UV index is an 8. In Hope Town now it’s 81 with a quick shower and a 6 mph South wind. Tides; Low at 1:18pm and high at 7:34pm.

Tiki’s Tip of the Day; My wife has been growing this flower all summer and asked me to plant it in the main flower garden. I gently did this put as men can do, put it in the wrong place. So I made a sign and placed it in front of the plant. It says, “Oooopsie Daisy!”

Today’s Image; Guana Cay never disappoints. Thanks to Victoria Hamilton Hoyt for sharing.

~TT and TM~

Tiki Tim’s Forecast

29/09/2025

28/09/2025

27/09/2025

26/09/2025

25/09/2025

24/09/2025

23/09/2025

23/09/2025

22/09/2025

21/09/2025

20/09/2025

19/09/2025

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