T-Intelligence

20/06/2024

This is where Russia wants to build a NAVAL HIDEOUT after Ukraine expelled the Russian Navy from occupied Crimea and the northwestern Black Sea.

📍 The location is Ochamchire Bay, in Russian-occupied Abkhazia (Georgian territory).

🛰 Eight months after the self-proclaimed Abkhaz “president” Aslan Bzhania announced that Russia would establish a permanent naval base in Ochamchire in the near future, signs of infrastructure expansion in Ochamchire Bay are emerging.

⚓ There’s already an FSB-Coast Guard base in Ochamchire, policing the ‘separatist’ waters and protecting the nearby coal smuggling business.

🏗 Expectations are that this infrastructure will grow further, and the bay will provide more and better berthing space and logistical capabilities.

📛 The bad news for the Russians is that their fleet still won’t be safe there.

🇺🇦 Ukraine has at least two maritime drones capable of making the trip from Odesa, and its intelligence services cannot wait to mount something more “up close and personal."

We’ll keep monitoring.

The full T-Intelligence report is in the comments.

02/04/2024

🚨MARCH EDITION IS ONLINE

In March 2024, the Republic of (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment:

🇪🇺Foreign Relations and European Integration
-Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration
-President Maia Sandu’s major meetings and discussions
🛡️Defense Modernization
-Mobilization exercises
-Strategic Defense Agreement with France
-Moldovan bilateral exercises
-Major defense-related meetings with foreign partners
⛽️Energy Security
-Renewable energy opportunities
-Enhancing energy infrastructure
-State visit to a foreign country
🚨Transnistria (and Russia):
-Russian plan to derail Moldova’s European integration
-Russian elections in Moldova (and Transnistria)
-Tiraspol airfield incident
-Autonomous Territorial Unit of Găgăuzia’s (ATUG) cooperation with Russia

(and more)

T-Intelligence has prepared a 2,036-word intelligence situation report (SitRep) that provides an overview of the past month’s events. As always, the SitRep is prefaced by three to five key judgments that summarize the entire edition.

As always, the SitRep is prefaced by three to five key judgments that summarize the entire edition.

GET YOUR COPY HERE: https://t-intell.com/2024/04/02/moldova-transnistria-security-sitrep-march-2024/

15/03/2024

📤 is in discussions with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to purchase the International Free Port (IFP) which is located in the Republic of .

Gain intelligence on this possible acquisition by the Romanian Government, the status of the talks with , and the strategic motivations behind Bucharest's interest.

Read here ➡ https://t-intell.com/2024/03/12/why-romania-wants-giurgiulesti-international-free-port-from-ebrd/

04/03/2024

DEPLOYED: In February 2024, the Republic of (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment:

🇪🇺Foreign Relations and European Integration
-Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration
-President Maia Sandu’s major meetings and discussions

🛡️Defense Modernization
-Talks with European defense companies for the modernization of the Moldovan National Army (MNA).
-Meeting with a major European country for drafting a defense cooperation agreement focused on MNA modernization and military ties.
-Other meetings with foreign officials for military and defense-industry cooperation, including with .
--facilitated workshop.
-Special Operations Forces exercises with foreign countries.
-Moldova hosting a major exercise.

⛽️Energy Security
-Approved memorandum of understanding (MoU) on energy connectivity.
-Tenders for allocating daily and monthly capacities for cross-border electricity exchange with and .
-New operator of the electricity market.
-Energy cybersecurity development.
-Meeting agenda of Moldovan Energy Minister Victor Parlicov at the 10th Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council.

🚨Transnistria (and Russia):
-Energy shortage.
-Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2 one-way attack drones crashed on Moldovan soil.
-Update on the customs code dispute.
-Reactions from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.
-Coverage of the days leading to the Transnistrian ‘Congress of -Deputies’ and the fear of a possible Russian annexation.
-The U.S. role in Moldovan-Transnistrian dispute.
-Possible early signs of Transnistrian first person view (FPV) drone adoption.
-Appointment within the Transnistrian paramilitary apparatus.
-Analyses on the ‘Congress of Deputies,’ Transnistrian request to Russia for ‘protection,’ and the Russian reaction.

T-Intelligence has prepared a 4,500-word intelligence situation report (SitRep) that provides an overview of the past month’s events.

As always, the SitRep is prefaced by three to five key judgments that summarize the entire edition.

GET YOUR COPY HERE: https://t-intell.com/2024/03/04/moldova-transnistria-security-sitrep-february-2024/

03/03/2024

Arctic Rush! ❄️
, , , and Geopolitical Competition...

Learn about:
-the global maritime shortcut offered by Arctic routes, including the Northern Sea Route, the Transpolar Route, and the Northwest Passage;
-key oil & gas reserves in the Arctic Circle;
-critical mineral (CM) and rare earth element (REE) deposits in the Arctic Circle;
-status of selected CM & REE development projects, including the latest discovery in Kiruna (Sweden).
-Icebreaking as a service for Arctic-going shipping, including national fees and transit regimes;
-Icebreaker shipbuilding demand.

These are some of the key intelligence requirements that we tried to address with T-Intelligence's second executive report.

Grab your FREE copy today!
➡https://t-intell.com/2024/02/28/arctic-rush-unfreezing-geopolitical-opportunities/

14/02/2024

The deteriorating situation in has become Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky’s inaugural challenge since being appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief (CIC) on 8FEB24.

Latest battlefield intelligence suggests that Russian forces have severed the main supply route (MSR) for the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka.

The deteriorating situation in Avdiivka has become General Syrsky’s first challenge since becoming Ukraine's commander-in-chief.

05/02/2024

In January 2024, the Republic of Moldova (including Transnistria) registered the following developments in its multi-sector security environment:

🇪🇺Foreign Relations and European Integration
-Noteworthy developments from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, including official meetings and phone conversations
-President Sandu’s major meetings and discussions

🛡️Defense Modernization
-Moldovan National Army (MNA) personnel training priorities for 2024
-Delivery of military material aid from an allied country
-New bilateral exercisesUkraine-related military developments

🎙️Domestic Affairs
-Threat of forthcoming hostile campaign
-Major cabinet changes
-Moldova’s new EU chief negotiator
-Update on a high-profile corruption case

💶Economic Resilience
-Major financial integration with the Eurozone
-High-value meeting and possible U.S. investments

⛽️Energy Security
-New gas import source
-Regional energy integration
-Tender schedule for renewable energy projects
-SA”Moldovagaz” and new gas prices
-Additional foreign funds
-New plans related to Gazprom gas

🚨Transnistria (and Russia):
-New tensions
-Transnistrian reactions
-Agenda and outcome of Joint Control Commission (JCC) meetings
-Follow-up on DEC23 incident in the Dnister Valley Security Zone
-New developments in 5+2 and 1+1 negotiations formats
-Transnistrian military and security priorities for 2024
-Russian reaction to the recent developmentsMoldovan polling stations for Russian elections

T-Intelligence has prepared a 3,200-word intelligence situation report (SitRep) that provides an overview of the past month’s events.

As always, the SitRep is prefaced by three to five key judgments that summarize the JAN24 edition.

GET YOUR COPY HERE: https://t-intell.com/2024/02/05/moldova-transnistria-security-sitrep-january-2024/

25/01/2024

On 21JAN24, NOVATEK’s Ust-Luga Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack.

The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex.

This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for Novatek’s operations and business.

T-Intelligence has prepared an intelligence assessment looking at the damage inflicted on the facility, repair time estimate, effects on port activity, consequences for business, and a background on the Ust-Luga Complex's role in the company's strategy.

Check it out!

On 21JAN24, Novatek’s Ust-Luga Complex in Leningrad oblast, Russia, came under drone attack. The strike was accurate and targeted a specific area of the Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex. This resulted in significant damage facility damage with ripple effects for No

19/01/2024

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T-Intelligence is offering a free newsletter that brings our latest intelligence, exclusive content rundown, and more, straight to your inbox. We dislike spam and clutter as much as you do. And we're all about the need to know. So our newsletter dispatches periodically and only when there is somet

08/01/2024

What a month for Moldovan security! 🇲🇩

Opening membership talks with the European Union...

Ending the state of emergency which has been in place since 24FEB22...

Plans to buy a modern air defense system in consultation with EU and NATO partners...

Reopening multiple border crossings with Ukraine, including from the left side of the Dnister in the Transnistrian region...

And the further degradation of the already comatose 5+2 negotiation format with the Tiraspol-based separatists...

2024 is going to be a turning point for 's security.

So the DEC23 edition is a must-read to prepare for what is coming ahead.

Plus, this will be the last free edition of the Moldova/ Security SitReps.

The JAN24 edition will be the first paid iteration.

Interested parties are encouraged to reach out-- there will be a discount for early joiners, especially on the yearly plan.

Moldova and Transnistria undergo a security turning point in December 2023. Our December edition covers the end of the state of emergency, EU membership negotiations, defense modernization, and regional developments with Ukraine and Romania. KEY JUDGEMENTS Moldova formally ended its sta

03/01/2024

2024 is here– Ukraine and Russia are entering their third calendar year of full-scale war with the following facts:
-aprox. 1,000 km active frontline
-over 500,000 total combat casualties (mostly Russian)
-close to 20,000 total vehicle losses (mostly Russian)
-at least 3x Russian offensives and 1x major Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023
-millions of artillery shells expanded in 2023
-little territorial exchange in 2023 (-0.05% Ukrainian territory)

If there was any doubt left, this is clearly a long war.

The question is: are we finally ready to acknowledge it and plan accordingly? And take measures that should have been taken in 2022?

To help reduce uncertainty for government and private sectors, T-Intelligence prepared a war outlook for 2024.

We looked at the following points:
-War aims for 2024 and beyond.
-strategy & tactics.
-force (and) attrition).
-ammo & fires
-defense industry.
-defense spending & state budget.
-external support.
-other considerations (power grid, shipping, negotiations).

The war in Ukraine enters 2024 with significant uncertainty and high stakes. Russia and Ukraine view 2024 as a waypoint in what is almost certainly a long war marked by intense attrition, minimal territorial change, and medium to long-term opportunities to achieve their maximalist objectives. Our Lo

27/11/2023

EXECUTIVE REPORT #1 JUST DROPPED 📋

The Solomon Islands is in the early stages of state capture by China.

With its growing geopolitical influence in the , is expanding the Belt & Road Initiative into the South Pacific, an area of strategic importance for the Australia, United Kingdom, and United States ( ) alliance.

Unlock this free Executive Report and gain intelligence on:
▪️Chinese-Solomon Islands memorandum of understanding (MoU) on security cooperation;
▪️China’s influence in Solomon domestic politics;
▪️The possibility of China establishing a military presence in the Solomons, including a naval base;
▪️Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, including in the Port of Honiara, Guadalcanal island (satellite imagery included);
▪️Growing Chinese investments in the Solomons, with emphasis on Huawei in the telecommunications sector;
▪️What the AUKUS can do to prevent the Solomons from being fully subsumed into the Chinese sphere of influence.

The Solomon Islands is in the early stages of state capture by China. With its growing geopolitical influence in the Solomons, China is expanding the Belt & Road Initiative into the South Pacific, an area of strategic importance for the Australia, United Kingdom, and United States (AUKUS) allian