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Crypto Briefing Advocating for crypto, blockchain, and the future of finance since 2017. Research and trade recommendations by SIMETRI.

Italy's economy is under pressure from energy supply disruptions due to the Iran conflict, with the Polymarket contract ...
21/04/2026

Italy's economy is under pressure from energy supply disruptions due to the Iran conflict, with the Polymarket contract indicating a 100% probability that the S&P 500 will open higher in April.

Italy's energy crisis worsens as the Iran conflict disrupts gas supplies. S&P 500 opens up on April 15 at 100% YES.

The U.S. perceives a division between Iran's negotiation team and the Revolutionary Guard, potentially impacting diploma...
21/04/2026

The U.S. perceives a division between Iran's negotiation team and the Revolutionary Guard, potentially impacting diplomatic efforts, with a low probability of no US-Iran meetings by June 30, 2026.

The U.S. sees a rift in Iran's negotiation team affecting talks. No US-Iran meetings by June 30, 2026 at 96.9% YES.

UnitedHealth's earnings exceeded expectations, boosting S&P 500 sentiment amid economic challenges, with April 17 predic...
21/04/2026

UnitedHealth's earnings exceeded expectations, boosting S&P 500 sentiment amid economic challenges, with April 17 prediction markets at 100% YES as a sentiment signal rather than active trading.

UnitedHealth reported earnings above expectations. S&P 500 up or down on April 17 at 100% YES.

Iran Air is set to resume domestic flights after a 50-day suspension, indicating potential de-escalation, yet prediction...
21/04/2026

Iran Air is set to resume domestic flights after a 50-day suspension, indicating potential de-escalation, yet prediction markets still see a 100% likelihood of Iran striking Israel by April 30.

Iran Air resumes domestic flights after 50-day suspension. Iran striking Israel by April 30 at 100% YES.

Pakistani diplomatic sources report no Iranian delegation in Islamabad, raising doubts about US-Iran peace talks by Apri...
21/04/2026

Pakistani diplomatic sources report no Iranian delegation in Islamabad, raising doubts about US-Iran peace talks by April 30, despite market odds for a meeting increasing from 16%.

Iran's absence from Islamabad raises doubts about US-Iran talks. Meeting by June 30 at 3.1% YES.

A Mossad agent was killed during Operation Roaring Lion, a joint U.S.-Israel campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites, w...
21/04/2026

A Mossad agent was killed during Operation Roaring Lion, a joint U.S.-Israel campaign targeting Iranian nuclear sites, with markets showing a 1.9% chance of UK military action against Iran.

A Mossad agent was killed in a US-Israel operation targeting Iran. UK military action against Iran by April 30 at 2.8% YES.

Three main issues are stalling US-Iran negotiations: uranium stockpiles, enrichment timelines, and access to the Strait ...
21/04/2026

Three main issues are stalling US-Iran negotiations: uranium stockpiles, enrichment timelines, and access to the Strait of Hormuz, with the market predicting a 30% chance of an enrichment agreement.

US-Iran talks stall over uranium and sanctions relief. Agreement to end uranium enrichment by April 30 at 31.4% YES.

The UK is urging expatriates to return from the UAE due to safety concerns from Iranian strikes on Dubai, as the probabi...
21/04/2026

The UK is urging expatriates to return from the UAE due to safety concerns from Iranian strikes on Dubai, as the probability of Gulf states taking military action against Iran drops to 7.5%.

UK seeks to attract expats from UAE due to Iranian strikes on Dubai. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 at 7.5% YES.

The article highlights ethical and geopolitical challenges in the clean energy supply chain, focusing on cobalt mining i...
21/04/2026

The article highlights ethical and geopolitical challenges in the clean energy supply chain, focusing on cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the exploitative labor conditions exposed by Nicolas Niarchos.

Exploitive cobalt mining in the DRC reveals ethical challenges within the global clean energy supply chain.

Vice President JD Vance is leading negotiations in Islamabad as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline nears, with the odds of a...
21/04/2026

Vice President JD Vance is leading negotiations in Islamabad as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline nears, with the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, dropping significantly.

Vance leads US-Iran talks in Islamabad as ceasefire deadline nears. Meeting by June 30, 2026 at 3.1% YES.

GLP-1 medicines are poised to revolutionize public health by addressing disease root causes, potentially leading to a tr...
21/04/2026

GLP-1 medicines are poised to revolutionize public health by addressing disease root causes, potentially leading to a trillion-dollar impact through strategic application of existing therapies.

GLP-1 medicines are set to revolutionize public health with over $100 billion in annual revenue potential.

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