Decision Desk HQ

24/09/2025

Decision Desk HQ projects Adelita Grijalva to win the US House special election in Arizona’s 7th congressional district.

: 11:01 pm ET

22/09/2025

For DDHQ's newsletter, looked at why the reaction to Charlie Kirk's assassination could boost turnout among young right-leaning voters in 2026. Kirk was best-known among the young & GOP is hoping Kirk-based messaging could increase engagement. https://zurl.co/dQQRG

The reaction to Kirk's death could encourage turnout among right-leaning young people, broadly a group that's far less likely to vote in a midterm than older Americans

15/09/2025

On Friday, Missouri's legislature passed a new congressional map to give the GOP 7 of the state's 8 districts (up from 6). DDHQ's latest newsletter looks at the new map, how it helps Republicans, and what Democrats could do to try to stop the map. https://zurl.co/lWDHH

Newly-passed Missouri congressional map all but guarantees Republicans an additional U.S. House district, though Democrats can pursue ways to block it

11/09/2025

Republican Winsome Earle-Sears narrows Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s lead in our Virginia Governor polling average by nearly a point this week, leaving Spanberger with one of the smallest leads she has held in months.

Despite small gains by Republicans for the second week in a row, Democrats continue to hold a lead of about 3 points in our generic ballot average.

8-day change in averages:

🟠Presidential Disapproval +0.9%
🟢Trump Favorable +0.1%
🟢Vance Favorable +0.1%
🟢Schumer Favorable +2.8%
🟢Republican Party Favorable +0.7%
🔴Republican Generic Ballot +0.2%
🟤Wrong Track +1.5%
🔴Earle-Sears +0.9%

You can follow the polling movement, including candidate favorability of NYC mayoral candidates, on our website.

10/09/2025

Decision Desk HQ projects Josh Kraft to advance in the nonpartisan primary in the race for Boston Mayor. He will square off against Michelle Wu in the November general election.

: 8:32 pm ET

10/09/2025

Decision Desk HQ projects Michelle Wu to advance in the nonpartisan primary in the race for Boston Mayor.

One more spot remains to advance to November’s general election.

: 8:11 pm ET

09/09/2025

Decision Desk HQ projects James Walkinshaw to win the US House special election in Virginia’s 11th congressional district.

: 7:00 pm ET

08/09/2025

In this morning's newsletter, explored how Democrats will have to buck recent midterm history to flip a Senate seat in a red-leaning state like Iowa. But that's the only way they're going to have a chance at a Senate majority next year. https://zurl.co/eGdxw

They will have to buck partisan trends to defeat Republicans on red-leaning turf

05/09/2025

DDHQ's joined for a lively Substack conversation about redistricting, the 2026 midterm picture, Trump's job approval rating, and some political history. You can watch it on DDHQ's Substack here: https://zurl.co/1OFfN

04/09/2025

ICYMI: DDHQ took a state-by-state look at redistricting. The GOP is positioned for a net gain of 2-13 seats from mid-decade redraws, likely high single digits. That's not enough to guarantee GOP control of the House, but it'd make Democrats' life harder. https://zurl.co/VxXbA

Just how much could Republicans benefit from an all-out gerrymandering fight? We go state-by-state to see.

03/09/2025

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn narrows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s lead in our Texas Senate Republican Primary average for the third time since the beginning of August.

Democrats continue to hold the lead in our generic ballot average, despite small gains by Republicans this week.

7-day change in averages:

🟢Presidential Approval +0.7%
🟣Trump Unfavorable +0.9%
🟣Vance Unfavorable +1.6%
🟣Musk Unfavorable +0.9%
🟢Schumer Favorable +0.4%
🔴Republican Generic Ballot +0.6%
🔵Right Track +0.4%
🔴Earle-Sears +0.4%
🟠Cornyn +1.7%

You can follow the polling movement, including candidate favorability of NYC mayoral candidates, on our website.

02/09/2025

In The Bellwether, our Substack newsletter, we toured the states that have redistricted or might very soon. We calculated how those changes could affect the 2026 midterm arithmetic in the US House — and things look better for the GOP than for Dems.https://zurl.co/Mn3xZ

Just how much could Republicans benefit from an all-out gerrymandering fight? We go state-by-state to see.