The South Africa Brief

24/10/2025

In the ninth instalment in Series Two of our “State of” posts, we look at the three parties making up Unite for Change (UNITE), the new platform launched by Rise Mzansi (RISE), Build One South Africa (BOSA) and GOOD, to contest the 2026 local government election in South Africa.

Read the post here: https://open.substack.com/pub/thesouthafricabrief/p/unite-for-change?r=1l8uqe&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

17/10/2025

ActionSA stands at a crossroads heading into 2026. Its 2024 result was disappointing but not terminal. It retains a foothold in key provinces, a visible national presence, and a leader with a recognisable brand. Yet it must evolve from a personality-centric party into a more disciplined, locally rooted organisation capable of eating into previous ANC support. Whether it can do so will determine not only its survival but also whether it becomes a key fixture in South Africa’s post-ANC political landscape.

Read the full "State of ActionSA" here:

2026 is make or break

10/10/2025

In the seventh instalment of Series Two of our “State of” posts, we look at the

Vryheidsfront Plus (VF+), South Africa’s seventh-largest political party.

The 2026 local government elections look to be existential for the VF+. If the party fails to carve out a distinct strategic and ideological space separate from the DA, it risks being overrun by the DA’s likely campaign momentum and superior turnout operation.

Read more here:

The squeeze is existential

25/09/2025

Ground Work Collective mobilised thousands and thousands of South Africans to observe and protect South Africa's general election last year. Watch the full conversation with GWC Founder and CEO Mbali Ntuli here: https://open.substack.com/pub/thesouthafricabrief/p/the-real-national-dialogue-with-mbali?r=1l8uqe&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

23/09/2025

Earlier this month, Paul and Jonathan had the privilege of sitting down with Mbali Ntuli, Founder and Chief Executive of Ground Work Collective (GWC).

Their conversation traced Mbali’s personal journey and her impactful work at GWC, particularly around voter registration, mobilisation, election protection, and civic education. She also shared her insights on the current state of South African politics.

A big thank you to the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Sub-Saharan Africa for their generous support and for opening up their studio to us.

You can watch the conversation here:

Episode 12

19/09/2025

Jonathan and Paul connect to analyse the by-elections of 10 & 17 September 2025, discuss the ANC’s ‘Roll Call of Councillors’ and assess the implications of continued Madlanga Commission Testimony for the ANC and GNU.

Watch the latest episode of The Real National Dialogue here:

Episode 11

19/09/2025

Events this week have reinforced our view that the ANC is heading for a significant election setback next year. In fact, the speed at which the party is imploding appears to be accelerating every week. Two events this week have shown that the party is beyond a point of no return.

Read our piece on a bad week for the black, green and gold:

A bad week for black, green and gold

16/09/2025

MK’s propaganda during last year’s election centered on criticism of the “ANC of Ramaphosa.” Catch our full discussion with political analyst Lukhona Mnguni here: https://thesouthafricabrief.substack.com/p/the-real-national-dialogue-with-lukhona

15/09/2025

In our latest podcast, political analyst Lukhona Mnguni unpacks how MK’s use of propaganda played a key role in their election success.

🎙️ Watch the full conversation here: https://thesouthafricabrief.substack.com/p/the-real-national-dialogue-with-lukhona

12/09/2025

In the sixth in Series Two of our "State of" posts, we look at the State of the Patriotic Alliance (PA), the sixth biggest party in South Africa.

Like MK, the PA’s electoral growth and continued momentum confounds those who point to internal disarray, ethical issues and relatively poor government and parliamentary performance.

The party's recent strong growth particularly in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape will be causing both the DA and ANC sleepless nights ahead of next year's local government election.

Read the post here:

Causing the DA and ANC sleepless nights

11/09/2025

The Real National Dialogue is back with a speacial guest. Paul and Jonathan sit down with leading political analyst Lukhona Mnguni for a deep dive into the current state of South African politics, and what the landscape could look like just 14 months ahead of the next local government elections.

A special thanks to the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom for their generous support and for opening up their studio to us.

Watch and/or listen here:

Episode 10

10/09/2025

Our local government research is mostly in the metros. The stakes are higher, with more people and more money at risk. The politics are more sexy, more exciting and more consequential for national and provincial governments.

Today's piece on the North West province and its tattered municipalities (four district, seventeen local) is a counter-example to the problems of coalition governments: the decline of local government under wall-to-wall ANC control. It is also a window into a future for the party after the next local government election.

Little hope for improvement in the ANC-controlled province