22/08/2025
🔑 Jackson Hole Day: What risk assets do before, during, and after the Fed’s Speech:
1. Before the Speech
• Markets typically enter cautious mode ahead of Jackson Hole.
• Equities and crypto trade sideways or drift lower as investors avoid new exposure.
• Volatility tends to fall, volumes thin out, and risk appetite shrinks.
• Profit-taking and ETF outflows are common, while BTC funding rates may turn negative.
Market focus: any hint on the Fed’s policy path for rates and inflation.
2. During the Speech
• The Fed Chair’s remarks are a live volatility event.
• Dovish tone → markets rally on expectations of easing/liquidity.
• Hawkish tone → sharp selloffs across risk assets.
Bitcoin and crypto react strongly, with price swings amplified vs. equities.
3. After the Speech
• Expect short bursts of volatility as markets reprice expectations.
• Options activity (especially puts) spikes as hedging demand rises.
• If clear guidance (rate cuts confirmed) → trend higher in risk assets.
• If ambiguous or hawkish → extended chop or downward pressure.
Crypto is particularly sensitive: liquidity signals often trigger outsized BTC & alt moves.
