08/12/2025
Market Outlook – Calendar Week 50
📆 Week 49 – Review:
📉 Market: Risk appetite clearly muted, Extreme Fear dominates. Spikes around data windows were sold off quickly, larger trend attempts failed early. The market is acting predominantly defensive; deleveraging and capital protection are front and centre.
🧭 Market Structure: Still no sustainable market breadth. BTC remains the main driver, order books in many alts are thin, and the picture is shaped by mean-reversion moves and whipsaws. Project news only creates short-lived spikes, with little to no follow-through flow.
📊 Indicators: BTC dominance ~58.6 %, Fear & Greed 20 (Extreme Fear) → clearly risk-off, event-driven environment; capital is parked in core beta, rotations into alts remain selective, tightly timed and vulnerable to reversals.
🛡️ Quantum Figures: 0 research signals, net exposure ~0 %, P/L (Research) 0.00 %. We deliberately stayed on the sidelines, with a focus on capital protection and avoiding unnecessary drawdowns.
📦 Volume / Ex*****on Effect: Rebounds were observed but not traded aggressively – lack of market breadth, no stable flow; slippage risk around data releases remains elevated, especially in illiquid altcoin order books.
➡️ Week 50 – Outlook:
🔎 Focus: Macro block as main driver. At the start of the week, Chinese trade data and the Sentix index for the euro area act as a test of sentiment and growth; as the week progresses, the Fed rate decision and the new dot plot become the key signals for the interest-rate and liquidity narrative, complemented by the SNB decision, US PPI and labour-market data. Toward the end of the week, GDP and inflation data from the UK, Germany and France round off the picture and help determine whether the “soft landing” narrative holds up or is called into question again.
⚙️ Approach: Quality over frequency. Selective release of signals only when there is clear market absorption (structure plus volume); around the most important releases, automations are reduced or paused, with the focus on slippage control and clean ex*****on rather than permanent presence.
🧩 Bias: BTC as lead structure. Alts only with recognisable market breadth, valid setups and proven flow (spot/perps); no risk build-up without evidence of liquidity, coherent order-book depth and sustainable follow-through flow.
🛡️ Risk: Defensively positioned. Small position sizes, tight price and time stops, no price-chasing on headline spikes; re-entries at clearly defined zones are strongly preferred over unstructured averaging.
📊 Sentiment & Dominance: F&G 20 and BTC dominance ~58.6 % → risk aversion remains high; broad allocations into alts only make sense with clearly positive macro tailwinds, lower interest-rate volatility and visibly improving market breadth.
Note: This is not investment advice and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. Research signals are for information and research purposes only and may be adjusted, delayed or suspended at any time depending on market conditions.