Odin Research

Odin Research Odin Research is an Australian global-macro trading firm specialising in data driven decision making and innovative trading strategies.

🚨 Trump’s New Tariffs: Is He Bluffin’?🚨Markets are reacting after Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico and 10%...
12/02/2025

🚨 Trump’s New Tariffs: Is He Bluffin’?🚨

Markets are reacting after Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico and 10% on China—with a catch. If these countries retaliate, the tariffs will increase even further. However, key energy imports from Canada (oil & electricity) will only face a 10% levy instead of the full 25%.

Trump says this move is meant to punish these nations for the flow of undocumented immigrants and drugs into the U.S.

🔎 The Big Question: Is this just negotiation theater? We’ve seen this playbook before—May 2019, Trump threatened Mexico with tariffs, only to pull back when Mexico agreed to curb migration. The trade back then? Long USDMXN → Short USDMXN (see Image 1 for the 2019 price action).

We’re about to enter a high-stakes negotiation phase—watch the FX market closely over the next few weeks.

📅 Check Image 2 for this week’s FX calendar—a bit sparse, but still some key events to watch.

What’s your take—real tariffs or just another bluff? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️

China Ramps Up Yuan SupportPBOC Warning: China’s central bank pledges to crack down on market disruptions and keep the y...
13/01/2025

China Ramps Up Yuan Support

PBOC Warning: China’s central bank pledges to crack down on market disruptions and keep the yuan “basically stable.”

Capital Controls Tweaked: Firms and banks can now borrow more from overseas, potentially boosting capital inflows.

Strong Fix: A higher-than-expected reference rate signals Beijing’s urgency to stabilize the currency, which is near a record low vs. the US dollar.

Policy Dilemma: The PBOC wants to stimulate growth with rate cuts, but it also needs to prop up the yuan to avoid capital outflows.

Looking Ahead: Analysts say short-term measures may help, but US tariffs and a sluggish local economy could add renewed pressure.

Subscribe to FXLens for daily exclusive FX market insights and forecasts - https://www.odinresearch.org/

Pound Could Slide Another 8%: Traders Brace for Bigger SelloffThe pound is facing heavy pressure amid ongoing fiscal wor...
13/01/2025

Pound Could Slide Another 8%: Traders Brace for Bigger Selloff

The pound is facing heavy pressure amid ongoing fiscal worries and sticky inflation in the UK. Options traders are snapping up contracts that pay out below $1.20, and some even bet on $1.12, signalling deep bearish sentiment. Last week’s market turmoil saw trading volumes surpass levels from the Liz Truss era and the Brexit referendum. Strategists warn of more weakness, with some predicting UK rate cuts could further hit the currency. Meanwhile, a few big investors are still hanging on to bullish bets on UK debt.

Subscribe to FXLens for daily exclusive FX market insights and forecasts - https://www.odinresearch.org/

BOJ Eyes Potential Rate Hike Amid Higher Inflation OutlookSurging rice costs and a weaker yen are prompting the Bank of ...
13/01/2025

BOJ Eyes Potential Rate Hike Amid Higher Inflation Outlook

Surging rice costs and a weaker yen are prompting the Bank of Japan to discuss raising its inflation forecasts for this fiscal year and next. The BOJ currently projects “core-core” inflation at around 2% or slightly above—key criteria that could justify a rate hike. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda wants to see stronger wage growth and more clarity on US economic policy before making any moves.

Traders should watch the Jan. 23–24 policy meeting for potential shifts. A decision to move the benchmark rate off 0.25% will hinge on new data, especially with private economists expecting even higher inflation.

Subscribe to FXLens for daily exclusive FX market insights and forecasts - https://www.odinresearch.org/

Address

Adelaide, SA

Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Odin Research posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Contact The Business

Send a message to Odin Research:

Shortcuts

Share

Category