01/03/2026
Great explanation from MNS, dynamics of a tropical system very hard to predict! Give them a like/follow!
π§οΈ WHERE WAS THE RAIN? (And why forecasting these is so hard)
If youβre sitting in the Mid North or Adelaide looking at a dry gauge, itβs easy to feel like the forecast was a "fail."
A lot of people are asking: βHow did the BoM get it so wrong on Friday, Saturday and today?β
To understand the "miss," you have to understand how a Tropical Low works.
WHY THE TIMING SHIFTED
Think of a Tropical Low like a boat with no motor, it just drifts wherever the "steering winds" in the upper atmosphere push it.
On Friday, the models showed strong steering winds pushing the core of the low straight South into our region by Saturday morning.
Those steering winds "collapsed" or "stalled." The system became near-stationary for about 24 hours longer than expected.
Because it didn't move as fast as the computers predicted, the "engine" of the storm stayed over the Far West and North for an extra day, dumping record-breaking amounts of water there while we sat in the humidity waiting for the main event.
The system didn't disappear; it just hit different coordinates with absolute force. Check out these official 24-hour totals to 9 AM today (Sunday):
*Braemar: 149mm
*Yunta: 129mm (Massive inland flooding)
*Panaramitee: 120mm
*Gluepot: 87mm
*Ooldea & Minnipa: Both saw over 100mm+ since Friday.
π Tragic Update: This isn't just about statistics. The rain in the North was so intense that a motorcyclist was tragically washed away and killed at Eurelia (near Orroroo) at 9:30 AM this morning (Sunday) while trying to cross a flooded creek. This system has been dangerous and life-altering for many South Australians.
β SO, WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
The Mid North has actually been recording steady rain since Friday, even if the "big burst" felt delayed. Here are the cumulative totals from Friday through to 9 AM this morning:
*Snowtown: 53mm total (33mm on Sat + 20mm to 9 AM Sun).
*Clare: 24.4mm (mostly falling in a steady soak overnight).
*Port Pirie: 10.6mm.
*Mount Bryan: 41mm.
As you can see on the latest charts, a cold front is now moving through the Bight. This front is finally "sweeping" the tropical moisture out toward the East.
Showers will ease fast tonight as winds shift to a cooler, drier southerly flow.
The BoM didn't "make up" the rain, the water was always there (as the 100mm+ totals out West and the 53mm in Snowtown prove). The difficulty was the timing. Predicting exactly when a stalled low will start moving again is one of the hardest jobs in meteorology.
Please keep the comments respectful. While we might be annoyed about a dry Saturday, families in the North are dealing with a tragedy.
Stay safe and keep an eye on the radar for the last of the cells. β