31/05/2026
One Nation has done it again.
The latest Financial Review RedBridge Group / Accent Research poll has Pauline Hanson's party surging to 31 per cent of the primary vote, putting it ahead of Labor on 28 per cent and leaving the Coalition stranded on a miserable 20 per cent.
For the first time, the AFR's flagship federal poll has One Nation outright in first place, but the bigger number might be this one: 63 per cent of Australians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Just one year into Labor's second term, nearly two-thirds of voters appear to be looking at Canberra and asking, âAre these nuffies serious?â and the reasons aren't exactly hidden.
Power bills keep climbing. Housing is still cooked. Rents are brutal. Real wages remain under pressure. Migration continues running hot while homes remain scarce. The cost-of-living relief Australians were promised feels about as visible as a cheap power bill.
Even Labor's latest budget landed like a lead balloon, with more Australians saying it would make life harder than easier.
The leadership numbers are just as ugly. Anthony Albanese plunged 10 points in a month to minus 19. Jim Chalmers fell even harder, dropping 13 points to minus 18.
Meanwhile, Pauline Hanson sits on 25 per cent as preferred prime minister and remains the only major federal leader not underwater on favourability.
Then there's the Coalition. At 20 per cent, the Liberals, and Nationals are now more like a historical society dedicated to preserving memories of John Howard and Tony Abbott.
Labor is bleeding support and yet the Coalition still can't capitalise. Why? Because a growing number of Australians no longer see two competing visions for the country. They see a uniparty wearing two different coloured ties.
One promises change and delivers excuses. The other promises opposition and delivers strongly worded disappointment.
Whether it's energy policy, migration, net-zero, housing or government spending, many voters have concluded the gap between Labor and the Coalition is measured in shades rather than substance. The result is that voters are looking elsewhere.
For years, political insiders insisted One Nation had a ceiling. Now the party is leading major national polls while the Coalition edges closer to political irrelevance. It's still only one poll, and elections aren't won in May.
But when One Nation is on 31 per cent, Labor is losing support, the Coalition is stuck in the wilderness and nearly two-thirds of Australians think the country is heading the wrong way, it's becoming increasingly difficult to pretend this is just a protest vote.
The old two-party game is looking shakier by the week. And right now, one side of the uniparty looks nervous while the other looks completely expendable.