Southeast Storm Media

16/04/2026

09/04/2026

Severe Forecast for Thursday 9th April 2026
for VIC
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A trough approaching from the southwest is expected to impact Victoria today bringing with it ample wind shear and forcing for thunderstorm development.

Within the green polygon thunderstorms are expected throughout today and tonight, these storms are not expected to bring severe impacts.


The area to watch will be around Melbourne, Ballarat and Sale VIC (red polygon) where severe activity is possible. CAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear ~50kts will support more organised convection and severe impacts.


A line of thunderstorms will progress southeast over Melbourne to Sale throughout the afternoon and evening. Impacts will include heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and the chance for some hailstones.

A LLJ of around 50kts from the northwest, curving hodographs and sufficient low-level helicity/shear could also show a 'non-zero' tornado risk embedded in this line across the Melbourne area this evening.

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Hazards:
Heavy Rainfall
Damaging Winds
Large Hailstones


© Southeast Storm Media

04/04/2026

Severe thunderstorms likely for southern parts of Western Australia this afternoon and evening (04/04/2026).

A trough pushing through is expected to yield a moderately sheared environment ~45kts Bulk Shear supportive of organised convection such as supercells.

The supercell activity will remain mostly discrete/semi discrete.

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) across the region will be within the range of 1500 and 2000 J/kg with lapse rates around 7-8c/km will support hail growth with the chance of large to giant hailstones (>5cm).

Image: SFC-500mb and Reflectivity

26/03/2026

🔥🔥🔥 INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA!
For Friday 26th March 2026 (NSW/QLD)

There will be an increased fire potential tomorrow with a front pushing strong dry westerlies across the region.


Wind gusts up to 50km/h are likely (potentially up to 70km/h in areas such as Tenterfield NSW). The strong winds will combine with relative humidity values below 20% and warm daytime temperatures.

Despite recent rainfall some areas have already began to dry out or were missed by storms.

Fires may spread quickly under these conditions, particularly between Tenterfield, Inverell and Tamworth where there are some locally stronger wind gusts.

High Fire Danger Guidelines (AFDRS):
Be ready to act.
Fires can be dangerous.

There’s a heightened risk. Be alert for fires in your area.
Decide what you will do if a fire starts.

25/03/2026

Heads up Orbost and Surrounds!!

A strong thunderstorm is currently moving Northeast from Paynesville Victoria with a nasty looking feature on the radar.

This is known as a 'Three Body Scatter Spike' or TBSS for short.
This occurs when the radar beam is bounced around in the thunderstorm producing a false spike of reflectivity on the opposite side of the storm.

This feature represents the likelihood of large hailstones (>3cm) are occurring within this storm.

Image from; MyRadar Weather Radar Composite Reflectivity

24/03/2026

Severe Forecast for Wednesday 25th March 2026
for VIC
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A shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorm activity across Victoria and Southeastern NSW today into tonight.


Thunderstorms are likely for most of the state today stretching from the NW to the SE as a line of storms moves across throughout the day into tonight. Ahead of this line we could see more discrete storm activity develop in a favourable environment for a few lower-end supercells with the possibility of hailstones (some could be large), damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that might cause some localised flooding.


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Hazards:
Heavy Rainfall
Flash Flooding
Damaging Winds
Large Hailstones


© Southeast Storm Media
Image: Satellite IR Visible (MetCentre WeatherWatch)

19/03/2026

🌪️ Severe Cyclone Narelle is now expected to landfall as a category 5 system.


Narelle has displayed increased lightning activity over the past several hours suggesting a strengthening trend as it approaches for landfall by early tomorrow morning just east of the town Coen in Far North Queensland.


A "prepare to take shelter" (watch and act) warning issued by Queensland Police is current for the region as the system begins its approach tonight.


Sustained wind speeds of above 280km/h are possible. Additionally, flooding is a risk with falls above 200mm expected as it crosses over the peninsula.

GIF: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

19/03/2026

Cyclone Narelle is now a Category 5, the first in 10+ years to directly threaten the Queensland coastline.

Folks they do not get much stronger than this, and Narelle is still getting stronger too. Cyclone Narelle now has wind gusts over 280km/h as it churns towards Queensland, with further strengthening expected today and into tonight.

The storm is expected to weaken slightly just before landfall thanks to land interaction, however a dangerous cyclone with winds over 270km/h will likely smash Far North Queensland and the Coen area, folks there need to be in their safe space well before the cyclone comes ashore tomorrow morning.

More to come. Cheers, Josh.

13/03/2026

Thunderstorms are happening across parts of Southeast Queensland and Northeast NSW - some with some potentially heavy rainfall ⛈️

📸 I took these photos earlier this afternoon (13/03/2026) near Roadvale QLD as the storms began to intensify.

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© Southeast Storm Media - Trent Moore

08/03/2026

Some significant flooding is currently occurring across parts of the South Burnett, Sunshine Coast and Central Queensland.


Many flood gauges are closing in on or well above major flood levels.

A flood emergency has been issued for people west of Emerald to seek higher ground as water continues to rise.

Rainfall accumulation over the last 24 hours shows where most of the rainfall has fallen, with many places experiencing rainfall above 100mm and a stretch from Gympie to Miles receiving over 200mm.


Heavy rain is expected to continue for areas between Rockhampton and the Sunshine Coast throughout the rest of today.