Southeast Storm Media

01/07/2026

🌪️ WEDNESDAY 01/07/2026 - TORNADO POTENTIAL
SA/VIC/NSW/QLD

A cold front moving across southern Australia will trigger thunderstorm activity across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Southwestern parts of QLD. Some of this activity is likely to be severe.

The cold front system will produce bulk wind shear values greater than 80kts, which is more than sufficient to support organised thunderstorm activity including some supercells. These supercells are likely to be embedded within the convective line.

MLCAPE of ~800 j/kg with 7°C/km lapse rates could see some localised large hailstones.

Large Hailstones, Destructive Winds (>125km/h) and some Tornadoes are possible throughout this afternoon into tonight.

A strong low-level jet (LLJ) from the northwest at 50-60kts along with storm-relative helicity (SRH) values greater than 150m²/s² will support tornado development. Typically, these embedded line/QLCS tornadoes tend to be pretty brief.

Prepare your property now if you are within the circled area, as destructive winds will cause a fair bit of mess around some properties. Warnings will be posted where necessary.

© Southeast Storm Media

27/05/2026

An upper-level trough and associated shortwave troughs are expected to kick up some thunderstorm activity across Queensland and Northern NSW (27/05/2026).


Thunderstorm activity will remain mostly disorganised and widespread throughout the remainder of today before a large, organised line moves through to the southeast late tonight into early tomorrow morning (Thurs 28th).

A multi-cell convective system (MCS) or Quasi Linear Convective System (QLCS) is essentially just a large line of thunderstorms where there is also the potential for some embedded supercells.


These systems typically produce damaging strong winds and plenty of lightning activity. With this system tonight there is also the risk for some hailstones and heavy falls.

More thunderstorm activity, some severe, is expected to continue throughout tomorrow across the southeast, wide bay and Bundaberg areas.

26/05/2026

An upper-level trough and associated shortwave troughs will see some thunderstorm activity develop across Queensland and Northern NSW throughout the course of Wednesday and Thursday.

Thunderstorm fuel or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is predicted to be around 1000 to 1500j/kg.

Pairing this instability with sufficient deep layer shear (~45kts) produced by the trough we could see some semi-discrete supercell or embedded supercell activity with the risk of some large hailstones.

Additionally, there will be the potential for some damaging straight-line winds produced by supercells, microbursts and linear storm modes (MCS/QLCS) and heavy rainfall.

Within the green polygon we would expect to see some thunderstorm activity, typically non-severe.
The red polygon represents severe impact potential - which in this case is large hailstones, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Storms throughout the day will eventually transition into a more linear line segment that progresses eastward through the course of tomorrow night into Thursday morning.

© Southeast Storm Media

16/04/2026

09/04/2026

Severe Forecast for Thursday 9th April 2026
for VIC
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A trough approaching from the southwest is expected to impact Victoria today bringing with it ample wind shear and forcing for thunderstorm development.

Within the green polygon thunderstorms are expected throughout today and tonight, these storms are not expected to bring severe impacts.


The area to watch will be around Melbourne, Ballarat and Sale VIC (red polygon) where severe activity is possible. CAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear ~50kts will support more organised convection and severe impacts.


A line of thunderstorms will progress southeast over Melbourne to Sale throughout the afternoon and evening. Impacts will include heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and the chance for some hailstones.

A LLJ of around 50kts from the northwest, curving hodographs and sufficient low-level helicity/shear could also show a 'non-zero' tornado risk embedded in this line across the Melbourne area this evening.

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Hazards:
Heavy Rainfall
Damaging Winds
Large Hailstones


© Southeast Storm Media

04/04/2026

Severe thunderstorms likely for southern parts of Western Australia this afternoon and evening (04/04/2026).

A trough pushing through is expected to yield a moderately sheared environment ~45kts Bulk Shear supportive of organised convection such as supercells.

The supercell activity will remain mostly discrete/semi discrete.

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) across the region will be within the range of 1500 and 2000 J/kg with lapse rates around 7-8c/km will support hail growth with the chance of large to giant hailstones (>5cm).

Image: SFC-500mb and Reflectivity

26/03/2026

🔥🔥🔥 INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA!
For Friday 26th March 2026 (NSW/QLD)

There will be an increased fire potential tomorrow with a front pushing strong dry westerlies across the region.


Wind gusts up to 50km/h are likely (potentially up to 70km/h in areas such as Tenterfield NSW). The strong winds will combine with relative humidity values below 20% and warm daytime temperatures.

Despite recent rainfall some areas have already began to dry out or were missed by storms.

Fires may spread quickly under these conditions, particularly between Tenterfield, Inverell and Tamworth where there are some locally stronger wind gusts.

High Fire Danger Guidelines (AFDRS):
Be ready to act.
Fires can be dangerous.

There’s a heightened risk. Be alert for fires in your area.
Decide what you will do if a fire starts.

25/03/2026

Heads up Orbost and Surrounds!!

A strong thunderstorm is currently moving Northeast from Paynesville Victoria with a nasty looking feature on the radar.

This is known as a 'Three Body Scatter Spike' or TBSS for short.
This occurs when the radar beam is bounced around in the thunderstorm producing a false spike of reflectivity on the opposite side of the storm.

This feature represents the likelihood of large hailstones (>3cm) are occurring within this storm.

Image from; MyRadar Weather Radar Composite Reflectivity

24/03/2026

Severe Forecast for Wednesday 25th March 2026
for VIC
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A shortwave trough will help to initiate thunderstorm activity across Victoria and Southeastern NSW today into tonight.


Thunderstorms are likely for most of the state today stretching from the NW to the SE as a line of storms moves across throughout the day into tonight. Ahead of this line we could see more discrete storm activity develop in a favourable environment for a few lower-end supercells with the possibility of hailstones (some could be large), damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall that might cause some localised flooding.


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Hazards:
Heavy Rainfall
Flash Flooding
Damaging Winds
Large Hailstones


© Southeast Storm Media
Image: Satellite IR Visible (MetCentre WeatherWatch)

19/03/2026

🌪️ Severe Cyclone Narelle is now expected to landfall as a category 5 system.


Narelle has displayed increased lightning activity over the past several hours suggesting a strengthening trend as it approaches for landfall by early tomorrow morning just east of the town Coen in Far North Queensland.


A "prepare to take shelter" (watch and act) warning issued by Queensland Police is current for the region as the system begins its approach tonight.


Sustained wind speeds of above 280km/h are possible. Additionally, flooding is a risk with falls above 200mm expected as it crosses over the peninsula.

GIF: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/