04/08/2025
Uganda’s Risky Gamble: How Long Can We Keep Protecting Salva Kiir?
By Jacob Okello
Uganda has always played a critical role in South Sudan’s stability, but recent developments suggest we may be crossing the line from ally to occupier. The statements by Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, claiming that our Special Forces entered Juba to “secure it” and that Uganda will protect South Sudan “like it was our own,” raise serious questions.
Are we helping a friendly neighbor in need, or are we propping up a weak leader who has become completely dependent on us? How long can Uganda afford to keep Salva Kiir in power, and at what cost to our own security?
Uganda’s Long History of Saving Kiir
Since the outbreak of South Sudan’s civil war in 2013, Uganda has repeatedly stepped in to save Kiir’s government from collapse. Our military intervention prevented Juba from falling to rebel forces, but what was meant to be a temporary operation has turned into a long-term political babysitting arrangement.
Instead of strengthening his own army and government, Kiir has outsourced the survival of his regime to Uganda. He no longer stands as an independent leader but rather as a client of President Museveni. This is not a good look for Uganda, and it is certainly not a good look for Kiir.
Salva Kiir’s Dependence on Uganda: A Sign of Weakness, Not Strength
South Sudan is a sovereign nation, yet its leader cannot even guarantee his own security without Uganda’s help.
1. Kiir has no confidence in his own army – If he did, why does he constantly need Ugandan soldiers to protect him?
2. He survives by external protection, not internal legitimacy – If Kiir was truly respected in South Sudan, he wouldn’t need a foreign power to keep him in office.
3. He has surrendered South Sudan’s sovereignty – No serious leader allows another country’s military to dictate security policy in his capital.
A president who cannot defend himself without help from a foreign country is not a real president. If Kiir were a strong leader, he would have reformed South Sudan’s military years ago instead of running to Uganda every time there is a security crisis.
The Danger of Uganda’s Permanent Involvement in South Sudan
Uganda’s continued military presence in South Sudan comes with serious risks—not just for Juba, but for Uganda itself.
1. We Are Turning South Sudan Into Uganda’s Military Playground
• Kiir has given us free rein to operate within South Sudanese territory, but what happens when other regional actors push back?
• Sudan (North), Ethiopia, and even the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) may start viewing Uganda as a regional aggressor, increasing tensions in East Africa.
2. Any War in South Sudan Will Become a Regional Crisis
• The war in Sudan is already spilling over into South Sudan. If a full-blown war breaks out again in South Sudan, Uganda will be dragged into it—whether we like it or not.
• A wider war means open borders, allowing armed groups to move between South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and the DRC.
• This could spiral out of control, turning Uganda from a stabilizer into a combatant in a conflict we cannot win.
3. Kiir Has No Exit Plan Without Uganda
• Kiir has built his entire rule around Uganda’s protection, meaning he has no plan for survival without us.
• If Uganda ever withdraws its support, Kiir’s government could collapse within weeks.
• South Sudan’s political future should not depend on Uganda’s military—it should be determined by South Sudanese.
Is Uganda’s Goal to Push Kiir Out or Protect Him Forever?
There are growing signs that Uganda is playing a double game—one that involves controlling South Sudan’s leadership transition.
1. If the plan is to push Kiir into retirement and hand over power to the old guard, that makes sense.
• Uganda may be looking for a way to facilitate a transition while ensuring that South Sudan remains under our influence.
• This would mean bringing in an experienced SPLM leader to replace Kiir while keeping South Sudan politically stable.
2. But if Uganda’s real plan is to protect Kiir and install Bol Mel as his successor, then we are making a fatal mistake.
• Bol Mel is a businessman, not a political leader. Trying to install him as South Sudan’s next ruler will be rejected by South Sudan’s political and military elites.
• This move could plunge South Sudan into chaos, igniting violent resistance and possibly turning against Uganda’s interests.
Museveni Must Be Careful—His Own Regime Is Not Safe
If Museveni thinks he can secure South Sudan under Kiir and later install Bol Mel, then he must also be prepared for his own removal from power.
1. Uganda is already facing internal political tensions.
• Museveni has been in power for nearly four decades, and opposition forces in Uganda are becoming more organized.
• His son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is reckless and unpredictable, and his ambitions could destabilize Uganda’s own political landscape.
2. Museveni is overextending Uganda’s military power.
• If Uganda gets too involved in South Sudan’s internal crisis, it could weaken Museveni’s hold on power at home.
• Many in Uganda’s security and political establishment do not support Muhoozi’s reckless foreign interventions.
3. If Uganda loses control of South Sudan, Museveni’s regime will also be at risk.
• A power shift in Juba could lead to new regional alliances that challenge Uganda’s influence in East Africa.
• If a new leader emerges in South Sudan who is hostile to Uganda, Museveni will lose a key ally and face political isolation.
Breaking Kiir’s Dependency on Uganda
This is not about South Sudan—it is about Kiir’s personal dependency on Uganda. Instead of standing as a leader, Kiir has made himself a puppet.
If Kiir wants to prove he is a real leader, he must:
1. Stop relying on Uganda for military survival. A real president does not need foreign troops to secure his capital.
2. Reform his own security forces. South Sudan’s army should be protecting South Sudan, not Ugandan soldiers.
3. Solve internal conflicts through politics, not military dependency. A leader who governs through external protection is not governing at all.
Kiir’s Weakness Is a Liability for Uganda
Salva Kiir is not a strong leader—he is a weak ruler who survives only because Uganda props him up. Our military cannot keep holding his hand forever.
If Museveni insists on protecting Kiir and trying to install Bol Mel, then he must prepare for his own downfall. Uganda is not invincible, and any miscalculation in South Sudan could bring an end to Museveni’s own rule.
Uganda must decide now—do we help South Sudan transition to a stable future, or do we tie ourselves to a weak leader who cannot even defend himself? If we choose the second option, Museveni should prepare to lose power, because his own regime is no longer safe.
