30/03/2025
๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐๐ฅ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ก
Grain growers along with livestock producers had a windfall season to achieve the second biggest farm income on record from season 2024-25.
Income generated by farmers from the agriculture is valued at $88.4 billion and thatโs up a healthy $2 billion over last year.
When fisheries and forestry income is also added into the mix with agriculture, the total income from all rural sectors adds up to a solid $94.3 billion, not far of the $100 billion income we are predicted to achieve by season 2030-31.
When broken down into sectors, the gross value of the 2024-25 winter crop is forecast as high as $49.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than last year.
With higher prices being for livestock, pushing that bounty up to an expected value of $39.8 billion.
Winter crop production volumes have risen by 16 per cent to a total of 55.1 million tonnes, due to favourable growing conditions across most crop regions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
In contrast, in South Australia, and to a lesser extent in Victoria, both states suffered from drier conditions throughout the winter cropping season, leading to year-on-year declines.
Agricultural export values are forecast to fall slightly to $70.1 billion in season 2024-25, on the back of the exportable crops returning to more normal levels following three record production years between 2020-21 and 2022-23, but will still be third highest exports on record.
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น๐
The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by $2.2 billion to $49.8 billion in 2024-25, driven by higher crop production volumes. This is 12 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 in real terms.
Improved production across much of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia in 2024-25, when compared to 2023-24, supported higher winter crop production overall.
This is in contrast to drier than expected conditions that have weighed on winter crop production in several parts of south-eastern Australia.
The expected higher value of crop production in 2024-25 when compared to 2023-24 reflects higher overall values across grains and pulses, as well as horticulture.
These increases are expected to more than offset lower values across oilseeds and industrial crops, with significant variation by each commodity.
Looking at the crop sectors faring best, it is still Wheat out in front with the value forecast to rise by $1.0 billion to $10.7 billion in 2024-25, driven by higher production despite easing prices.
Canola comes in as runner-up with the value expected to fall by 2 per cent to $4.0 billion, reflecting lower production despite rising prices.
Meanwhile, Barley value is forecast to remain unchanged at $3.6 billion in 2024-25 as higher production offsets are easing prices.
Crop varieties that fell in value include Sorghum down to $820 million, driven by easing prices. While the forecast for sugar Cane sees values down by 13 per cent to $2.0 billion, also reflecting easing prices.
The Cotton value is also expected to fall by 13 per cent to $2.7 billion, driven by lower production and prices.
A bright spot is predicted for Pulses, horticulture and wine grapes, with values forecast to rise respectively by 38 per cent to $3.7 billion, by 5 per cent to $17.9 billion, and by 11 per cent to $970 million in 2024-25.
These increases reflect higher expected prices and production. Among pulses, chickpea values are expected to reach a record high in 2024-25, up by $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion.
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น๐
The area planted to winter crops in 2024โ25 is estimated to have increased by 7 per cent to 24.6 million hectares.
This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 23%) and Queensland (up 36%).
The favourable seasonal conditions at time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.
Wheat harvest is forecast to increase by 23 per cent to 31.9 million tonnes in 2024-25, 20 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The two largest wheat producing states, New South Wales and Western Australia, are expected to rebound by 75 and 40 per cent respectively in winter season 2024-25, driven by increases in northern cropping regions of both states.
Barley production kept its head above water with a forecast increase of 8 per cent to 11.7 million tonnes in 2024-25, placing the crop 3 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
This forecast reflects an estimated 6 per cent increase in the area planted and aided by above average yields.
Canola production took a small hit with a fall of 8 per cent to 5.6 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This result was driven by a decrease in the area planted and lower yields as a result of dry conditions in south-eastern Australia, where a significant proportion of the national Canola crop is grown.
The area planted remained above the 10-year average, resulting in expected Canola production remaining 23% above the 10-year average to 2023โ24.
Lentil production is forecast to fall by 29 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This represents a 34 per cent downward revision from early season estimates, mainly because of reduced crop prospects in South Australia and Victoria.
However, forecast production remains well above the 10-year average to 2023-24 of 764,000 tonnes, as a result of a the record area planted to lentils in 2024-25.
Chickpea was the outstanding performer for the season, albeit on a smaller production basis than the big three crops, wheat, barley and canola.
The national crop harvest is forecast to increase by 284 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This represents a 42 per cent upward revision from early season estimates and the result now sits 141 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
This result also reflects a significant expansion in the area planted to reach a new record and all-time record national yield.
All due to optimal planting and growing conditions in New South Wales and Queensland, and favourable prices. If realised in full, this will be the second-highest chickpea harvest on record.
๐ช๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป ๐๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ
Winter crop production in WA is forecast to rise by 31 per cent to 19.4 million tonnes in the winter season 2024-25, the third highest value on record.
This represents a 6 per cent upward revision from early crop predictions and is also 13 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 of 17.2 million tonnes.
Following unfavourably dry and hot conditions at the start of the winter cropping season, growing conditions in WA improved significantly due to the timely winter rainfall, particularly across northern cropping regions.
Nonetheless, below-average rainfall in some cropping regions is what led to crops experiencing moisture stress, and in some growing areas, heat shock.
Despite below-average spring rainfall across southern growing regions in WA, most regions received sufficient rainfall during the critical grain fill windows to support above-average yields and as a result high production levels.
Wheat production in WA is forecast to rebound by 40 per cent in 2024-25, mainly driven by higher yields, that are expected to add to bank account balances and show an overall increase of 37 per cent on average.
Higher yields are mainly the result of improved conditions in the central and northern cropping regions, where the majority of wheat is grown in WA.
Barley production in WA is expected to increase in season 2024-25, with the average state yield for barley forecast at 9 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Canola production in WA is forecast to increase in 2024-25 due to higher yields, and this comes about despite a fall in the area planted.
The 2024-25 winter crop harvest in WA progressed at a fast pace as a result of the dry finish to the season and below average rainfall later in the season.
Yields for most regions are better than what was expected earlier in the season.
However, high screenings are likely to reduce receivables of premium grade wheat and barley.
Rainfall near the start of harvest caused some delays across most cropping regions, but overall, harvesting of winter crops in WA for winter season 2024-25 progressed with minimal interruption.
๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐
Winter crop production in NSW is forecast to increase to 19.1 million tonnes in 2024-25, a jump of 68 per cent over the last year, the second highest harvest on record.
This is a 13 per cent upward revision from early season estimates and is also 62 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
This improvement in production follows average to above average rainfall in northern NSW throughout spring and an upward revision to the area planted to chickpeas.
Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024-25 were mostly favourable across NSW.
The central west and northern cropping regions benefitted from above-average soil moisture levels and favourable rainfall throughout winter and spring.
While southern growing regions experienced a drier start to the season as well as minor impacts from frost events, somewhat limiting yield potential.
However, timely rainfall later in the season aided frost impacted crops in their recovery, arresting further yield declines and supporting grain fill.
The area planted to winter crops in NSW is estimated to have increased by 23 per cent to 6.8 million/ha in 2024-25, the second highest on record.
This is 24 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023โ24 and represents a 6 per cent upward revision from early season forecasts.
Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to increases in the area planted for winter crops, with many expanding into regions not normally sown, such as northwest NSW.
Overall, wheat production in NSW is expected to increase by 75 per cent in 2024-25.
While the average state yield forecast is expected to be 46 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Similar production upsides are expected for barley and canola in NSW.
With mostly favourable conditions pushing average state-level yields 34 per cent and 20 per cent above the 10-year average respectively.
Chickpea production in NSW is forecast to increase by 567 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This represents a NSW state record high.
Production was driven higher by increases in the area planted to chickpeas, following the announcement of a tariff free period for exports to India.
Chickpea production went from early season below average predictions to realise a result that is 219 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Weather was kind to the winter crop harvest across all cropping regions in NSW.
With overall high protein levels for wheat and high malting percentages for barley have been achieved.
๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ
Winter crop production in VIC took its first major nose-dive since season 2018-19. It follows a string of five seasons in a row of healthy returns for VIC growers.
Victorian growers suffered a fall of 31 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes in 2024โ25.
This result represents an unexpected 15 per cent downward revision on early season estimates to be some 8 per cent below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Lower production is clearly blamed on well below average rainfall in northern and western growing regions of VIC throughout spring.
Growing conditions for winter crops in 2024-25 were largely unfavourable throughout the season, with persistent dryness limiting yield potential and leading to production downgrades.
Lower than expected rainfall and widespread severe frosts also affected crops in VIC, with wheat and barley being cut for hay across some major cropping zones in the Mallee and Wimmera.
Frost affected regions without sufficient biomass to cut for hay have seen paddocks either left abandoned to maintain ground-cover and to minimise erosion risk or carried through to harvest with mixed yield outcomes.
Eastern Mallee cropping regions were a little luckier with late season above average rainfall supporting grain fill and arrested any further yield penalties in those areas.
Overall, wheat production in VIC is forecast to fall by 34 per cent in 2024-25, and the average state yield is forecast to be 12 per cent below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Similar production downturns are expected for barley and canola in VIC, with frost and water stress also reducing yields below the 10-year average.
Lentil production is also forecast to fall by 31 per cent to 535,000 tonnes in 2024-25.
However, the crop still remains 58 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24, driven by an estimated record area planted of 430,000 ha.
Late rainfall slowed the harvest of winter crops in VIC, but initial receivals suggested better-than-expected protein levels for wheat as well as malting percentages for barley.
๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ
Winter crop production in SA dwelt at disaster level all season with a forecast to fall
by 35 per cent to 5.6 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This represents a 29 per cent downward revision from already dismal early season forecasts to end up 30 per cent below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Production fell in 2024-25 due to below to very much below average rainfall in northern cropping regions as well as both the Eyre and Yorke Peninsula throughout spring.
Growing conditions for winter crops in SA in winter season 2024-25 were largely unfavourable across all growing regions.
While persistent dryness, frosts and isolated hail events throughout the growing season have all limited yield potential and led to production downgrades.
Crop growth and full development were also hindered by warm winter conditions that reduced soil moisture levels faster than usual.
Below average to very much below average rainfall totals across all cropping regions later in the season also contributed to production downgrades with crops also affected by frost being cut for hay across the Eyre Peninsula and northern districts.
Similar to other areas affected by frost and water stress, paddocks without sufficient biomass to cut for hay were either abandoned to preserve ground-cover or to minimise erosion risk were carried through to harvest with severe yield penalties.
As a result of the adverse growing conditions, wheat production in SA is forecast to fall by 38 per cent in 2024-25, with the average state yield forecast to be 37 per cent below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Barley and canola yields are forecast to be 25 and 28 per cent below the 10-year average respectively.
While Lentil production has also falling year-on-year, but is expected to remain 29 per cent above the 10-year average because of increased plantings across the Eyre Peninsula.
The winter crop harvest in SA went ahead under mixed conditions.
Heavy rainfall in northern and central areas slowed progress, while southern coastal regions also experienced light showers constraining harvest activities.
Rain that would have been very valuable early in the growing season came late across most grain-growing regions and, as a result, delayed an already stressed harvest.
๐ค๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ
Winter crop production in QLD got a most welcome boost as compared to the
dismal failure of last year, with a forecast increase of 110 per cent to reach 3.6 million tonnes in 2024-25.
If the full harvest is realised, it will be a great comeback by growers and remembered as the highest production level on record to date for QLD.
This result is 76 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 of 2.0 million tonnes.
The record haul is attributed to higher yields and increased areas planted to chickpeas than previously anticipated.
Growing conditions for winter crops in QLD in 2024-25 were largely favourable across most growing areas.
Adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting saw an optimal start to the cropping season and a year-on-year expansion in the area sown.
Favourable rainfall during the growing season, particularly in southern growing regions, boosted yields for all major winter crops.
Wheat and barley production in QLD is forecast to increase in 2024-25 by 106 and 78 per cent to 2.2 million and 535,000 tonnes, respectively.
These results are 73 and 66 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 168 per cent to be 98 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The 2024-25 winter crop harvest in QLD progressed under relatively dry finishing conditions and on the majority of farms provided uninterrupted paddock access.
However, late season rainfall did result in some delays and quality downgrades in several unharvested crops.
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐
Summer crop plantings are expected to remain above average in 2024-25, while
summer crop production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes.
This result, if achieved will be 20 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 of 3.6 million tonnes.
Area planted to summer crops in 2024-25 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares.
This is supported by above average soil moisture levels and rainfall at time of planting, however, area expansion has been limited somewhat by lower water allocations in some areas and a record area planted to winter crops in key summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
According to the early in season three-month rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau, there is a high probability of above median rainfall across most eastern cropping regions.
If realised, above average rainfall in Queensland and northern New South Wales would provide favourable growing conditions for summer crops, and is expected to result in above average summer crop yields.
Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes in 2024-25, but remain well above the 10-year average to 2023-24 of 1.7 million tonnes.
The fall reflects an expected 4 per cent decline in the area planted to sorghum due to a reduction in area left fallow following the large winter crop in many sorghum-growing regions.
Late spring and early summer rainfall is likely to boost soil moisture levels and support late planting of sorghum.
The increased chance of above average summer rainfall and high soil moisture levels are expected to support the production potential of sorghum crops.
Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 1.0 million tonnes in 2024-25, reflecting a marginal fall in both area planted and yields.
The area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 458,000ha in 2024-25, but remain 15 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Aggregate yields are also likely to fall slightly from near record levels in 2023-24.
However, with high water availability and above-average rainfall outlook across much of eastern growing regions is expected to support above average yields, with the final production forecast sitting at 28 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Rice production is forecast to fall by 28 per cent to 449,000ha/tonnes in 2024-25.
This decline in production has eventuated due to a a 24 per cent decline in area planted in New South Wales.
Motivated by lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations.
๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ๐
Summer crop production in New South Wales in 2024โ25 is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes.
This remains 22 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 and represents a 5
per cent downward revision from initial industry forecasts.
This fall in production in NSW reflects an expected decrease in area planted to
cotton, rice and sorghum in 2024-25.
Total area planted to summer crops in NSW in 2024-25 is expected to fall by 5 per cent to 627,000ha.
Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 700,000 tonnes in 2024-25,
35 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The area planted to sorghum in NSW is forecast to fall by 3 per cent to 170,000ha in 2024-25 but still remains above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Expansion in area planted to sorghum was limited by large winter crop plantings, however, favourable rainfall and stored soil moisture at time of planting has supported an above average planted area.
Average to above average rainfall throughout spring and a favourable summer rainfall outlook are expected to support above average sorghum yields in NSW.
Cotton lint production is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 680,000 tonnes in 2024-25 but will remain above the 10-year average achieved by NSW growers to 2023-24 of 519,000 tonnes.
The area planted to cotton in NSW is forecast to be steady and will show a fall of just
9 per cent to 306,000ha in 2024-25.
However, this reduction still remains 18 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24, supported by above average water stores availability and favourable soil moisture levels.
Yields are also expected to remain above the 10-year average to 2023-24 given a favourable summer rainfall outlook.
Rice production is forecast to fall by 28 per cent to 445,000 tonnes in for NSW growers in 2024-25, driven by a reduced area planted.
Lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations are expected to have led to overall lower rice plantings.
While an overall favourable climate outlook for summer is expected to support average yields.
๐ค๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ
Summer crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 2.0 million tonnes in 2024-25.
This result is 18 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24 but represents an
8 per cent downward revision from initial expectations .
Lower grain prices and less area available due to the large QLD winter crop are expected to lead to a decline in the area planted to sorghum, driving the overall decline in summer crop production.
However, this decline in area planted to sorghum is expected to be partially offset by a greater area planted to cotton.
An increased probability of above median rainfall over the course of the growing season is expected to lead to above average crop yields.
Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes in QLD in 2024-25.
Area planted to sorghum is also forecast to decline by 4 per cent to 398,000ha, reflecting a reduced area available due to the large Queensland winter crop, particularly chickpeas.
Sorghum yields are also expected to decline slightly in 2024-25, but production is still expected to be 22 per cent above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Cotton lint production in QLD is forecast to increase by 8 per cent to 318,000 tonnes in 2024-25, driven by an increase in planted area.
The area planted to cotton in QLD is expected to rise to 135,000ha, as most favourable spring rainfall allowed growers the opportunity of some timely planting in more susceptible dryland growing regions.
While improved water reserve availability is likely to support higher irrigated cotton planting.
Yields for cotton in QLD are expected to fall slightly in 2024-25 but remain above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
