24/03/2026
Could Perth be impacted by Cyclone Narelle this weekend?
It definitely appears so. Forecast models are indicating that this may be the case, that Perth could be in for a prolonged period of damaging/locally destructive wind gusts and heavy rainfall, as the cyclone comes down the coast and crosses between Perth and Geraldton.
Cyclone Narelle has moved over water again into the Indian Ocean, producing severe weather overnight north of Broome in the Kimberley. The system will strengthen today and will likely become category 3 again on Wednesday, becoming the first cyclone on record to do this in three different parts of the Australian region. Narelle could become a very powerful category 4 offshore from Exmouth on Thursday, producing cyclonic conditions between Karratha down to Carnarvon during this time with the risk of very destructive winds around Exmouth. I would advise making preparations now for a significant cyclone impact, but there is still the chance Narelle misses the coast completely.
Cyclone Narelle is then on Friday forecast to accelerate south, weakening on Friday night as it potentially approaches the WA coast. As the system transitions from fully tropical to extratropical (not a tropical cyclone) it should grow in size, producing an even more widespread swathe of damaging/destructive wind gusts as it approaches the coast on Saturday morning.
The timing and location of the impacts depends on where the system goes, but there is now solid indication that those between Perth up to Kalbarri can expect widespread severe weather impacts in the form of damaging-locally destructive wind gusts as well as moderate to heavy rainfall (30-60mm, isolated falls to 100mm) as the cyclone moves through on Saturday or early Sunday. For a comparison, some places will see winds typically only seen in the absolute strongest of cold fronts, with many more receiving winds similar to a one in five year winter storm system. This may change, for worse or for better, depending on the true peak intensity of Narelle offshore from Exmouth (which for now looks to be category 4, so anything stronger would be concerning to say the least).
For many areas the nature of this weather system is unprecedented, with impacts likely to be significant across the Central West, Murchison, Perth, Wheatbelt and adjacent areas as Narelle or whatever is left of it moves through this weekend.
Please, do not panic or worry, and it is still (at least for areas south of Kalbarri) too early on in the forecast to begin making reasonable plans or precautions. However, as the cyclone grows tomorrow impacts will become a lot more predictable, so be prepared to act ahead of Cyclone Narelle from tomorrow.
More coverage to follow today. Cheers, Josh.
