10/11/2025
The sociopolitical atmosphere in Bangladesh has headed towards one of confrontation, as the announcement for the date of the verdict of Sheikh Hasina's human rights violation trials approaches. It remains a developing story, as witnessed by scattered incidents of chaos and violence country-wide.
What to look out for:
A) Awami League activists demonstrating with renewed motivation.
- Party cadres should be expected to bring out simultaneous processions and even engage in unrest after the delivery of the verdict, and 13th November before that.
- Special focus should be given to whether these processions feature increased numbers compared to previous processions.
- Relentless social media campaigns.
- Disruptive actions targeting key thoroughfares.
B) Jamaat, BNP, and other Islamists engaging in physical confrontations against Awami League activists.
- JCD and Shibir have both expressly announced their intentions to confront BAL on the 13th of November.
- Jamaat’s actions following the 11th November deadline that they have set are to be noted.
- Islamist coalitions may appear on the field as catalysts.
C) Further KPI catastrophes and increased banditry.
- KPIs remain key targets of sabotage aimed at disrupting daily life and government communications.
- Increased activity of bandits, gunrunners, and notable criminals should be noted.
- Movement of illegal weapons ought to be followed to notable bandits.
D) Further Indian posturing.
- In response to construction at the Lalmonirhat Airstrip, the Indian Armed Forces have garrisoned three bases at Chopra in North Dinajpur, Kishanganj in Bihar, and at Dhubri in Assam. All of these bases are within arm's reach of Bangladeshi territory and may be expanded further.
- Further expansion of, and military exercises featuring the XVII ‘Brahmastra’ Corps in West Bengal.
- Further expansion of, and military exercises by the III ‘Spear' Corps in Assam and Tripura.
- Live-fire military exercises conducted by the Indian Air Force or its new ‘Divyastra’ artillery battery formations that combine long-range artillery with kamikaze drones.
- New media ‘hit pieces’ on Bangladesh.
- Mid-level BJP politicians delivering inflammatory speeches regarding Bangladesh.
Addendum: Recent developments as of 10th November indicate targeting of installations related to serving advisors of the Interim Government. These must be watched out for, along with incidents of communication infrastructure being targeted.
