Mijanur Rahman

29/10/2025

Thanks to a group of like-minded people

25/09/2025

🔍 Today's Key Points
For today's market, we recommend keeping an eye on the following:

Key Inflation Data: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the August Core PCE Price Index, will be released tonight Beijing time. This data will significantly influence market expectations of the Fed's future interest rate path and is a key focus today.

Market Sentiment: Observing the performance of the three major US stock index futures during the Asian and European trading sessions provides a preliminary assessment of the market's digestion of the latest economic data and news.

Political Developments: Continue to monitor the progress of negotiations in the US Congress to avert a government shutdown.

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22/09/2025

💡 Today's Market Focus
In addition to the overall trends mentioned above, the following factors may influence market sentiment and trends today (September 22nd) and in the near term, and are worth monitoring:

Key Economic Data: This week's focus will be the US PCE price index for August, which will be released on the evening of September 26th (Beijing time). This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, and its performance will directly influence market expectations of the Fed's subsequent interest rate path.

Political Risk: The US federal government's funding will run out on September 30th. If the two parties fail to reach an agreement on a temporary appropriations bill, some agencies will face a shutdown, which could exacerbate market volatility.

Sector and Individual Stock Opportunities: Market performance may diverge. For example, some institutions have raised their target price for Baidu (BIDU.US) due to optimism about its AI and cloud computing businesses. Focus on individual stocks or sectors with clear earnings growth potential.

Correlated Market Signals: The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp drop on September 22nd, which generally reflects a shift in market risk appetite and can serve as a proxy for US stock market sentiment.

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18/09/2025

Overall, the US stock market on September 17, 2025, showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones index rose, driven by some of its component stocks, while the Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, faced significant pressure. The market's reaction to the Fed's interest rate cut decision was muted, even somewhat disappointing, with the "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern reappearing. Chairman Powell's cautious remarks regarding "risk management" and the Fed's internal disagreements about future interest rate cuts likely dampened market optimism.

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16/09/2025

Overall, the US stock market outlook for September 15, 2025, shows a divergent outlook. Tech stocks showed resilience, pushing the Nasdaq index to a new high, with Google's market capitalization surpassing $3 trillion, and Tesla surging thanks to a significant increase in its CEO's holdings. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 saw slight declines, dragged down by some component stocks and influenced by cautious market sentiment ahead of major events.

The market is currently dominated almost entirely by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with investors awaiting clear guidance from the Fed's meeting. The intraday fluctuations and closing performance of major stock indices also reflect the trade-off between investors' optimistic expectations and their cautious attitude as they await the final decision.

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15/09/2025

📊 Focus on individual stock and sector performance
Tech Giants ("Magnificent 7"): The Wind US Tech 7 Index rose 1.14%.

Google: Its stock price surged over 4%, pushing its total market capitalization above $3 trillion for the first time, making it the fourth company to achieve this milestone after Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple. This was primarily due to the outstanding performance of its cloud business as a growth engine and a favorable ruling in a previous antitrust lawsuit.

Tesla: Its stock price surged over 7%. CEO Elon Musk disclosed spending approximately $1 billion to purchase over 2.5 million shares of the company, a move interpreted by the market as a strong signal of confidence.

NVIDIA: Its stock price fell approximately 1.6%. This was mainly due to the pre-market announcement by China's State Administration for Market Regulation that, after a preliminary investigation, it had found violations of antitrust law and had decided to conduct further investigations.

Apple: Its stock price rose over 1%. Reports indicate that first-week market demand for its iPhone 17 series outperformed last year's iPhone 16 series.

Chinese concept stocks saw mixed performance. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose nearly 1%. Among individual stocks, JinkoSolar rose over 6%, while Douyu fell over 4%.

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