29/05/2026
An upper level trough is currently digging into the southern Gulf
and will begin to interact with a developing ridging pattern in
the Caribbean Sea and leading to the increase in upper-level wind
speeds across the Yucatan Peninsula. By Saturday, expect the decay of the structure of the upper trough. Regardless, speed divergence will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula. The dynamic upper-level wind pattern over the Yucatan will support the development of shortwave troughs in the mid-levels for the next three days.
The presence of the developing mid-to-upper-level ridge in the
west Caribbean Sea will lead to the mean steering wind-flow to be
from the southeast. Consequently, expect low level troughs to move along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and eventually Yucatan with this flow pattern.
At the same time expect the brief development of a low-level trough across the west Yucatan Peninsula as the interaction between the upper ridge and trough increases. This dynamic low level pattern will support moderate to enhanced accumulations across the Yucatan, Guatemala, and Belize.
Rainfall accumulation for several places in Belize has broken above their normals for May,2026, effectively ending the long dry spell for those places. This is particularly true for portions of northern coastal Belize as well as a small area in the Toledo district.
