04/07/2024
"We are under a TS WATCH .. and that is for the North of Belize... that means that TS conditions are POSSIBLE in that area. I want to clarify a misconception in the public that from a WATCH you MUST go into a WARNING. That is not necessarily the case. A WATCH means that we monitor and if we notice that the system is shifting further north, or if we notice that the TS winds will NOT extend into our area, then the watch can be downgraded and we don't go to a warning. That is important. A WATCH does not necessarily mean that we escalate to a WARNING. I want to leave the public with that." -- Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon at the NEMO press conference yesterday.
NEMO issued a WATCH for a tropical storm on Wednesday morning, not a hurricane. Since Wednesday morning, NEMO has known that a hurricane would likely not hit Belize. If there was any doubt, Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon clarified the situation at the press conference yesterday afternoon.
Everyone who has lived on the islands for long enough knows that a Tropical Storm brings a lot of rain and some waves, but there's hardly any wind or storm surge danger. Yet the San Pedro and Caye Caulker NEMO branches and municipalities incited hysteria with their loud pronouncements to evacuate, evacuate, evacuate ... as if Belize was directly in the path of a Category 5 hurricane. This was never the case.
For our islands, which rely so heavily on tourism, we need sane, sober leadership—not leadership that is prone to hysteria. By manufacturing this mass hysteria (it was all for the photo ops, folks), they effectively killed the tourism economy on the islands for the next month. Even the PM got it wrong in his speech.
Granted, there is a fine line between doing too much too soon and too little too late, but that is why the powers that be need to stick to the facts.
For Belize, as of Wednesday morning, this was always a Tropical Storm "threat", it was never a Hurricane threat. Even though the powers that be were throwing around the word "hurricane" so much, you would be forgiven for believing anything other than Belize was in the direct path of a Category 5 hurricane.
Preparing and evacuating for a storm that is not coming costs money many people cannot afford to spare. Unnecessarily frightening away tourists also heftily damages the local economy. If they get it wrong often, when the real one comes, everyone will be suffering from hurricane fatigue, be broke, and have no money to evacuate. Perspective and common sense are key.
Thankfully, Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon was sober in his assessment of the situation and his comments, and so was the PGIA, which issued a press release stating they would remain open unless circumstances changed. Their roles in providing accurate information were crucial in this situation, and I thank them for their leadership and for following the facts.
So, now that the Caye Caulker and San Pedro municipalities have effectively frightened away all their tourists, what will they do to bring them back?
