11/28/2025
MIT just quantified the AI job scare: 11.7% of the U.S. labor market is now economically replaceable by existing AI, representing roughly $1.2T in annual wages across finance, healthcare, admin work, and white-collar services.
The estimate comes from the new “Iceberg Index,” a large-scale simulation that models 151M U.S. workers, mapping 32K skills across 923 occupations.
Researchers contrast a "Surface Index" of current AI use, 2.2% of wages, mostly in tech, with an 11.7% "Iceberg Index" of tasks already automatable.
Not surprisingly, the jobs most exposed are heavy on repeatable cognitive and admin work in sectors like finance, healthcare, and professional services.
The 11.7% figure represents what AI can handle right now, not what will actually get automated, that depends on corporate strategy, political decisions, and adoption speed. But some states are already using the index to run what-if scenarios on retraining and investment before the automation wave hits for real.
Source: The Rundown AI Newsletter