06/16/2026
The U.S. NOAA has issued a warning regarding the potential for a "Super El Niño."
The real issue is that this warning has surfaced at a time when inflation fears are already high, and I believe this will have a significant impact on the monetary policies of major central banks.
While the potential spike in agricultural prices is widely recognized, the broader problem is that we must brace for a rise in commodity prices across the board, starting with crude oil. Although the U.S. and Iran have reportedly finalized their truce talks (despite ongoing disagreements over the specifics), the trend of stockpiling crude oil inventories is expected to persist for the time being. Furthermore, regions suffering from El Niño-induced droughts will naturally see a corresponding surge in energy demand.
Ultimately, we will have to grapple with inflation concerns throughout the entire second half of the year, which directly links to the sustainability of higher interest rates. Naturally, this will put a damper on further stock market rallies. If the first half of the year was strong, the second half could prove to be quite a challenge.
P.S. Since a powerful El Niño often triggers an equally severe La Niña, living here in Canada, I'm already worried about snow removal for this upcoming winter. 😐