02/04/2016
A Ted Cruz win is NOT a Donald Trump loss…
One of the things that has annoyed me in the report about the Iowa Caucuses was that fact that THIS WAS THE END OF TRUMP…
Well, I hate to burst you Cruzing bubble but it aint folks…
To understand why, you need to know what a caucus is and how if differed from both a primary and the election.
A caucus is essentially a public forum where people from one candidate tries to persuade…as in get on your soap box…attendees to support their candidate…which is all well and good, but it is NOT a popular vote.
Caucus are long…people gather in a room after work…the debating, pleading and cajoling takes a couple of hours and a vote is taken…sometime a secrete ballot, sometimes just a show of hand.
Lots of people cannot not take the time to participate…also, those candidates with a well oiled machine, like Cruz, can punch above their weight…when compared to Trump, who may be popular, but as an outsider, has little in political machine…so a lot of his supporters may not show up…understand what is going on…there may not be the strong “soap box proxy” present…
That is why, to those of us in the know, Cruz’s win…as slim as it was, was not a surprise…He has a much better ground game. As much as he pretends to be an outsider...and ideologically, he is very OUTSIDE ...he is not stupid and know how to play politics...
The next battle, New Hampshire is a primary…a primary is like an election…polls open at 8am…stay open till 8pm…or the like…people show up and cast a ballot. Not as exciting or politically engaging as a caucus, but more realistic with regards to the actual presidential election.
Now, those of us politi-nerds, figured a win for Cruz in Iowa but a win for Trump in New Hampshire…which I still think is likely. That said, with all the negative press about Trump and the quote UPSET victory for Cruz…which to reiterate, it was not…may take some wind out of Trumps sail.
No, the real story out of Iowa was Rubio…there was much debate about which of the “establishment” candidates would arise to save the republican party from the apocalypse pf Trump/Cruz…
Well, it seems…again so far, Iowa has been very wrong about who is the eventual Prez candidate…in 2008, McCain was fourth, and in 2012, Romney was second…well, that being said, in the past the quote Runners up, were close…as in Huckabee got 34%...Romney 25…Thompson 13…McCain 13…in 2008…in 2012 you had Sa****um at 24.56…Romney 24.54…Ron Paul at 21…Gingrig at 14…
My point being this time, you had Cruz at 26…Trump at 24…Rubio at 23…but the next runner up, Carson at 9…Rand Paul at 4…Jeb Bush got less than 3%...
So, it seems this is now a three-way race…Trump and Cruz for the Crazy wing of the republican party and Rubio the inevitable winner…I mean how crazy is the Republican Party?
Well, I guess time will tell…
