03/30/2024
I am not sure if me writing a second essay sets a precedent. Will I feel obliged to come up with a relevant topic on a weekly basis? Or, probably more importantly, how long will I keep it up?
At this point, the previous essay and this one stem from December and me and her Mom immediately going on vacation following TCTC, and me having loads of travel time to ponder while the Irish countryside rolls past. I've easily got a third topic after this one, if I can keep to schedule after returning home.
A major category of thought - oh wouldn't it be nice if I could thematically link this to walking the walls of Derry or standing at the edge of Galway Bay, but if you are reading this, I did not come up with something that wasn't contrived - has been balance.
Winter Palace is NOT, and never will be a balanced game. In defence of that, I will turn to the infamous Peter Olotka (co-designer of Cosmic Encounter and Dune) quote "Balance is for weenies." It is Feature, not Flaw.
That said... better balance is better game.
The myriad thoughts on balance and Winter Palace ultimately boil down to three things:
1) The current state of (lack of) balance is unsurprising and substantially predicted.
2) We are working on it.
3) It is an exceedingly interwoven equation.
1: Yeah, we saw this coming.
Of course, any game design should be expected to come out of the gate with some imbalance born into it.
With each role in Winter Palace having its own set of win conditions - a goal to be achieved, and a downfall to be avoided (a design choice to be discussed in a later post), it was inevitable that imbalance would be a concern.
In initial design, the question for each role's conditions was not "is this balanced?", but "is this possible?" With some additional consideration to parameters that at least seemed reasonable.
Playtests have underlined more specifically where the imbalance lies... though at this point the "low hanging fruit" is really what is face-forward and validating our initial expectations of where imbalance is. In other words, as we've been collecting data for just seven games, our results at this point are either; pretty obvious or statistically insignificant.
One interesting bit that I expect falls into "statistical insignificance" is that no player, in any role has had an end result of "partial loss." Partial Wins and Total Losses, yes...Perhaps it's time for some context...
If a player avoids their Downfall half of their win conditions, they will score a "win"; having their Downfall triggered will result in a loss. Achieving their Goal will land them in the top-half of the end of the Win-Loss Continuum that their Downfall places them. (A Total Win, or Partial Loss) while failing their goal will put them on the respective bottom half (Partial Win, or Total Loss.)
While there is some thematic pairing of Goals and Downfalls, the mechanical pairing is (or at least seems - we may be in the process of being proven wrong) weak in most cases.
So, it seems odd that when a loss has been triggered that it has always resulted in a Total Loss. At this point, not a true concern - but we will continue to watch for incidents, and address that as we nudge balance towards a middle-state.
Some aspects of expected imbalance were foreseen, but not to their apparent degree. Case in point: it seemed obvious that Suitors (up to three in one game - the only role that truly duplicates in a single game) would have a harder time reaching their goal with each additional Suitor in the game - to the point where it practically IS the game for them, with a full-slate in play.
Sure enough, every game we ran with two Suitors neither avoided their Downfall. Yet, in the single 3 Suitor game the 3rd (a totally arbitrary designation) dodged their Downfall. (Note that as Suitors are directly in conflict with each other, that only 1 can truly be successful.)
We need more data here. But those 2-player games have definitely caught my attention.
Meanwhile, the Assassins... who are very nearly duplicate roles, saved by the fact that each has their own target. They are otherwise identical.
But the difference in those targets is significant. Assassin #1 has the Princess as their target. This is almost certainly the toughest Assassin to win with. The Princess has the largest number of other roles whose well-being is positively connected to them. Each of The Regent, The Valiant and the Lady in Waiting specifically require the Princess to survive in order to avoid their Downfall. The Mad Monk needs all Royalty (of which The Princess is one) to survive and is the single greatest source of Poison-neutralising Tinctures. Only The Regent is a top 5 (thus required) role. But both the Valiant and the Lady in Waiting are among the 3 slot-6 roles of which 1 will be in any 6 player game.
Assassin #1 is a top 5 role as well. Their job is always going to be a challenge, even when the Young Prince - who shares their goal - is in play.
Any Assassin's Goal gets easier when there are additional Assassins in the game. This is due primarily to there being more Poison favours in the game for any Assassin's target to receive, but also that if Assassins can identify one another, they can team up to collectively Poison targets faster than possible on one's own.
The 2nd and 3rd Assassins each have targets who aren't explicitly being protected (Though both have the Mad Monk's implicit protection.) thus their Goals are more readily met. The 4th Assassin has the best circumstance. Their target, The Regent, does not have their own life to protect in order to avoid their Downfall - they will happily die in order to save the Princess. "Assassin 4" can be the 2nd Assassin put into the game, despite the numbering. (That naming may be changed in order to avoid that bit of confusion.) This interconnectedness gets very complicated.
Is the Princess safer with the 4th Assassin in play? I honestly haven't bothered to guess at how to figure this out yet.
For the games we ran at TCTC we had 2 variants ready to go with lots of Assassins. But, the two games that were set up for this (in the hardcopy prototype it requires an hour of set-up, so changing is an issue) were the two games with the largest number of no-shows from the sign up. So we didn't get to test those large numbers. Bah! (All in good time.)
2) "We are working on it."
Let's be honest here. At this point "working on it” pretty much means "we are well aware of it and are taking notes." Many of those notes are evident in this essay.
Detailed work will require a lot more data and analysis thereof. But the app will be very useful for that.
There are a number of levers to pull when tweaking balance. While no doubt balance will be affected on a per-player and per-role basis by adjusting details like duration of rounds and inter-round times as well as number of rounds (currently fixed at 4, but unlikely to survive as a constant for all player-counts) and dances per round; all of these variables are global and do not target specific roles.
The levers that are per-role are: the Goal, the Downfall, and the starting Favours of each role.
While any Goal or Downfall can be changed, the discrete units of change are not equal. A role whose success requires the win or loss of another role effectively has a binary unit of 1 bit. (Discounting any units within the win/loss parameters of the subject role.)
Assassins (currently) are required to distribute 3 Poisons in excess of any Tinctures that their targets have received. (There is a requirement that Tinctures not be received prior to the Poison - a slight wrinkle.)
Any role whose win conditions are tied to arrest only have to deal with two units, but those units are of separate types (Warrants and Chains) that must be delivered in an immutable order. Thematically this is challenging to adjust.
Some roles are required to receive certain items (from 1-7 depending on details) which may be simpler if more of a given commodity is in circulation. In some cases a role may be required to gather a variety (specific or not) of items.
In the case of Suitors, The Consort and the Lady in Waiting, the number required (in all of these cases, Letters) is not a fixed number but is dependent upon the number your opponents have acquired. In these cases, the difference between being strictly more (or less) than an opponent instead of merely "equal-to-or..." is an important consideration.
Currently, "the equal-to-or..." vs. strictly more/less question has entirely been answered as a thematic question. A thematically driven choice is more likely to survive a question of imbalance, particularly if the imbalance is not game-breaking. (By necessity a game-breaking imbalance would be appropriately addressed.)
3: “...An exceedingly interwoven equation.”
When considering adjusting starting favours, it is less a matter of simply adding or subtracting favours from a given role. It is more a factor of adjusting the underlying equation, which is different per favour, per role, then adjusted for player-count.
"What the heck does that mean?"
Well, it is a tangled mess, which is made worse by the fact that I wrote each equation but kept no notes as to the underlying considerations. I will need to reverse engineer this sooner than later.
An example by rough-memory:
Take a 13-player game. Each player has 25 favours. Half of all roles have Invitations, but only ever 1 - so this count is simple, it is fixed at 1. The God Mother's Goal is based on choosing 3 players and having at least 2 achieve their own Goal. Those three chosen players are identified by the God Mother handing out 3 favours (1 ea.) - in this case Secrets. So, the God Mother also receives a fixed amount of Secrets. No more, no less than three. She is also empowered to be able to assist her chosen players by having examples of each of the other favours - as closely as possible matching the distribution of favours in the game (few Tinctures, but lots of Neutrals and everything else in the range between) but with a minimum of 1 per type. This isn't a particularly challenging formula, but it's not simple addition and subtraction, and the balance in lower total favour counts will skew away from the expected ideal due to rounding and minimums.
For any given favour for a given character there may be a fixed count, a percentage based on their own balance, a percentage based on the entire distribution of favours in the game, there may be exclusions (few roles have Tinctures at all), there may be hard minimums and/or maximums, and of course there are no partial favours. Fortunately, in almost every case, the Neutrals that the player has is an easily manipulated amount - though even those cannot be cavalierly adjusted without implications. The Princess, by design, cannot go through the first Ball handing out ONLY Neutrals in order to 'hide' (thus thus number adjusts based on Dances in the first Ball, which itself is a function of player-count.) The Peasant, so much as I have gleaned (I may be mistaken once the data is in.) benefits from a higher overall Neutral count, but there must be a logical ceiling where an imbalance can arise for them from too many Neutrals.
And none of this takes into consideration specific role inclusions.
Should Assassins get a bonus Poison if the Mad Monk is in play? Should the Mad Monk get bonus Tinctures when a threshold number of Assassins are in play? Should Assassins have their total number of Poisons throttled when there are more of their own kind in play?
Which levers to pull in order to add the greatest amount of correction with the least amount of disruption is likely a Salesman Problem level of imperfectly unanswerable complexity. There is much to consider, and much ground to cover before we can do more than consider it in the abstract, and once we have applied our best guesses, we will inevitably discover that we were no less than partially wrong - either in fact, or in perception. There is no clear win here, merely a best eventual result.
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