bne IntelliNews

21/03/2025

COMMENT: Is the EU going to fall apart?

https://intellinews.com/comment-is-the-eu-going-to-fall-apart-372839/

07/03/2025

MARCH issue is out.

COVER SECTIONUkraine doesn't have any rare earth metals, and the strategic minerals it does have are not worth trillions of dollarsread here:

https://online.flipbuilder.com/myab/xmus/

https://emd-drupal-production-copy.s3.amazonaws.com/magazines/bne_March%202025_20250304.pdf

04/02/2025

The golden rule of Eastern Europe watching is: don’t listen to what they say, watch what they do. That was the benchmark during the Yeltsin years when he would get drunk and say something crazy.

Trump makes no sense either. But as he is the leader of the most powerful country in the world, other leaders have to politely treat his statements as if they were rational and then deal with the problems they throw up.

In the last two weeks Trump has picked fights with some of his closest and most loyal allies that will undermine the remarkable Western unity in the growing geopolitical clash with the Russo-Chinese axis. Putin started this war in Ukraine as he objects to the so-called US-led so-called unipolar world, but in two weeks Trump has done more to undo US soft power by withdrawing from a slew of international organisations and has done more to create the multipolar world that Putin and Xi crave than anything Russia has managed to achieve in the last two and half decade.

In the meantime, Zelenskiy is trying to navigate an increasingly chaotic world to ensure the support he needs to avoid defeat at Russia’s hands. By contracts, Trump only seems interested in doing deals that will make America richer.

Nothing Trump says makes any sense. That makes him like Yeltsin in the 1990s who used to get drunk and say crazy things. But for Zelenskiy that is a big problem who needs Trump's help.

01/02/2025

IntelliNews monthly magazine
The February issue of bne monthly Magazine is out!

COVER SECTION
New US oil sanctions, attack on Turkstream shake up global energy markets

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COMPANIES & MARKETS
Spike in Czech beer exports to Russia highlights cracks in Moscow-bound trade and businesses
Czechia wraps up work on pipeline expansion to end reliance on Russian oil
Hungary’s 4iG seeks further acquisitions in CEE and Western Balkans for rebranded telco operations
Russia’s war machine fed by free-flowing exports of Uzbek “guncotton” pulp, say reports
Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas reportedly bids for Lukoil’s Bulgarian asset
"Danish model" funded 500% increase in Ukraine's domestic arms production in 2024
Russia's hidden war debt and a looming credit crisis
TurkStream is now the only route for Russian gas to Europe
Albania, Italy and UAE to build €1bn Adriatic subsea cable
airBaltic CEO and IPO under pressure after flight cancellations
Central Asia emerges as new e-commerce hub
Why pick-up points for online orders are gaining popularity vs. home delivery
RuNet sees its second big outage since January
US President Trump says Microsoft in new talks to acquire TikTok
Geothermal energy poised for major global expansion, says IEA chief Fatih Birol
Smog back with a vengeance in Ulaanbaatar
CENTRAL EUROPE
EU presidency passes from Putin-whispering Hungary to hawkish Poland
US sanctions key Orban ally for corruption
City of Budapest vows to exercise pre-emptive rights over plot for planned €5bn luxury project by UAE investor Eagle Hills
Lorinc Meszaros, Hungary's most powerful oligarch
Bomb threats to schools in Hungary traced to emails sent through Yandex platform, IT experts say
SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Russian presidential adviser warns Moldova may “cease to exist”
Turkey's Erdogan threatens to "cut off heads" of terrorist groups in Syria
Albania, Italy and UAE to build €1bn Adriatic subsea cable
Poll reveals dominance of far-right presidential candidates in Romania
EASTERN EUROPE
Russian gas transit through Ukraine ends, with Europe meeting the new year with 5% less gas
The war went badly for Ukraine in 2024
EU leaders brace for emergency summit if Hungary continues to block extension of Russian sanctions
Poland's Tusk warns of Russian airline bomb terror campaign, promises to speed Ukraine's EU membership
EURASIA
Armenia approves EU membership bid further straining ties with Russia
Georgian Dream lashes out at “Global War Party” and “deep state” networks
Central Asian leaders look to expand mutual trade
Football talent Khusanov poised to become first Uzbek to play in English Premier League after Man City signing
OPINION
Trump’s annexation remarks risk reigniting Balkan border disputes
Gulf states court Russia but stop short of strategic shiftheadaches Trump Europe’s mounting problems
The EU’s Green Deal is a “policy disaster”
Trump demands Europe import more US LNG, as the EU proposes banning Russian LNG completely. Neither will happen.
Europe needs to start the fightback against Trump now
Analysts expect ‘perfect storm’ of political risks in 2025
NEW EUROPE IN NUMBERS
Gas exports to Europe to boost Azerbaijan's growth over next decade

05/12/2024

Chaotic politics, authoritarian presidents and the path to prosperity

South Korea's president Yoon declared martial law this week, which was immediately overturned and he will now likely be impeached. The country has flourished but a mature democracy it ain't.

Just how important is it for a country to have a responsible president for it to flourish? Most of the countries in FSU have had only two presidents and the ones with lots are amongst the worst performers.

It’s a trade-off between stability and chaotic freedoms. In the early stages it seems stability is more important than freedom, but, as Korea shows, in the later stages those freedoms can give your country an extra leg up.

South Korea's president Yoon declared martial law this week, which was immediately overturned and he will now likely be impeached. The country has flourished but a mature democracy it ain't.

04/12/2024

MOSCOW BLOG: Three of US’ key regional allies are in turmoil

Three of the US military outposts in key regions of the world are either under attack or in chaos. Israel in the Middle East, Ukraine in Europe and now South Korea in SE Asia are all in turmoil thanks to the rise of geopolitical tensions, expanding wars and degrading the US’ ability to project its military might around the world.

Three of the US military outposts in key regions of the world are either under attack or in chaos: Israel in the Middle East, Ukraine in Europe and now South Korea in SE Asia.

03/12/2024

IntelliNews monthly magazine
The December issue of bne monthly Magazine is out!

COVER SECTION
Productivity at Russia's largest enterprises rising in effort to keep the economy competitive

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COVER SECTION
Russia’s economy is tougher than it looks, no chance of
a crisis in the next 3-5 years

COMPANIES & MARKETS
TAL pipeline expansion nears finish, offering Czech Republic a future free of Russian oil
Slovak gas distributor SPP concludes pilot deal with Azerbaijan's SOCAR
Pakistan could quit TAPI as India now “extremely lukewarm” on gas pipeline project, says report
Freedom Holding Corp reports 33% revenue growth in 2Q24, expands in Central Asia and Europe
Russia and Iran officially link bank card networks
US financial sanctions on Russia are working, but yet to affect trade volumes significantly
Russia cuts off gas supply to Austria's OMV
Will the renewal of the Serbia-Russia gas deal prolong Moscow's energy dominance in Europe?
Moldova’s electronics sector rises again
Studenac aims to raise €80mn with dual listing in Warsaw and Zagreb
Croatia has triple-A rating after Moody's upgrade
Top Uzbek e-commerce and fintech player Uzum posts $100mn in 9M24 net income
Half of Ukraine’s top IT firms see revenue drop amid war, relocations
Telekom Srbija plans US expansion after Trump's victory
Top Uzbek e-commerce and fintech player Uzum posts $100mn in 9M24 net income
UN talks start in South Korea on plastics pollution as waste chokes planet
This year to be warmest on record, says Copernicus
Lax rules agreed at COP29 for global carbon trading market

CENTRAL EUROPE
Trump's election complicates Tusk's foreign policy challenges
Draghi report recommendations could lift eastern EU members’ economies, says EBRD chief economist
Hungarian opposition leader claims Fidesz is wiretapping him for black propaganda campaign
Xi Jinping announces strategic partnership between China and Slovakia
Slovenia’s ex-foreign minister aims to capture centre ground with new party

SOUTHEAST EUROPE
So you want to get on the right side of Donald Trump? Try gift-wrapping a hotel
Moldova’s pro-EU President Maia Sandu wins second term
Elon Musk wants Italian judges who blocked migrant deal with Albania sacked

EASTERN EUROPE
Putin lays out his view of the new world order in Valdai speech
Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy switches rhetorical tack from victory to resistance
Finding workers in wartime Odesa
Belarus Election Committee registers six pro-regime candidates to run against Lukashenko in 2025 presidential election

EURASIA
Ukraine war fuelling a manufacturing and FDI boom in the CIS
What Trump’s return means for Armenia and the South Caucasus
Protesters attack parliament building in Abkhazia

OPINION
Central Europe's populists clamour to applaud Trump's victory
Political, economic and security headaches Trump Europe’s mounting problems
How to awaken Europe's private sector and boost economic growth
What went wrong for the EU in Georgia's and Moldova’s elections?
Will COP29 become a milestone in Azerbaijan’s long-term energy strategy?
Trump 2.0 could be a blessing for Belarus

NEW EUROPE IN NUMBERS
Germany's industry back to contraction in September

12/11/2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave another important speech on his world view at the Valdai meeting this weekend, an annual event that is a sort of ideas talking shop but always worth listening to.
He didn’t say anything extremely new – just laid out his multipolar world view again: we are all the same; countries should be nice to each other and let them develop as they see fit; and the emerging markets have already in effect emerged and are due the respect to run their own shops.
But there was a harder edge to this version as it was framed in the context of conflict: the non-aligned countries of the Global South are clubbing together and reject the proclivity of the Global North to dictate policy, values, choose laws, condemn elections, and take the right to sanction anyone it disagrees with or doesn’t like.

Putin gave a keynote speech at the annual Valdai Summit where he laid out his latest version of his "multipolar" world view.

12/11/2024

A pall of anticipated disappointment hangs over the COP29 UN climate summit that kicks off in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, on November 11.

World leaders are making their way to the meeting as the Climate Crisis accelerates faster than scientists predicted and in particular following the deadly flash flooding that recently hit Valencia in Spain, killing over 200 people earlier this month, and the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene in the US.

Urgent action is needed, but it appears very unlikely that the leaders will agree on the concrete measures needed to keep temperature rises to the 1.5C above the pre-industrial base line agreed at the Paris summit in 2015.

A pall of anticipated disappointment hangs over the COP29 UN climate summit that kicks off in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, on November 11.

07/11/2024

Trump 2.0 is good news for Putin, bad news for Zelenskiy

Trump is back. That is bad news for Zelenskiy but good news for Putin. It makes a ceasefire more likely as while Biden was dedicated to supporting Ukraine, Trump’s “America First” mantra means he is likely to disengage and retreat behind the walls of an American Tariff Fortress. The government in Germany has also just collapsed, weakening an already riven Europe further.

Congratulations poured into Donald Trump’s office from around the world after he was declared winner.

05/11/2024

IntelliNews monthly magazine
The November issue of bne monthly Magazine is out!

COVER SECTION
Productivity at Russia's largest enterprises rising in effort to keep the economy competitive

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COVER SECTION
Productivity at Russia's largest enterprises rising in effort to keep the economy competitive

COMPANIES & MARKETS
Europe needs Draghi’s reforms to boost growth, says IIF
Hungarian government to unveil economic action plan to boost faltering growth
Fallen gold output reported at flagship mine Kumtor seized by Kyrgyzstan government
Giant titanium deposit could earn Kyrgyzstan $88bn, says cabinet head
International consortium should build Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant, says president
EBRD and IFC make biggest direct investment into Ukraine’s telecoms in wartime
“Made in Russia” label growing in popularity
Russia’s USM Group threatens legal action against Kyiv over seizure of its steel assets in Ukraine
Serbia signs MoU with North Macedonia for gas interconnector
Western Balkans emerges as nearshoring destination
Poland’s Zabka convenience store chain aims to raise €1.5bn in upcoming Warsaw IPO
Kazakhstan raises $1.5bn from return to dollar bond market after decade away
Serbia achieves first-ever investment grade rating
Uzbekistan’s Navoi gold mining giant issues debut $1bn Eurobond
Kazakhstan and Nasdaq-listed fintech Kaspi fight back against short seller’s report
Croatia startup raises €10mn to boost AI-driven adtech
German Dataciders acquires Bulgarian IT services provider ROITI
OCSiAI opens cutting-edge graphene nanotube facility in Serbia
Estonian Bolt CEO calls remote work 'insanity'
Half of Ukraine’s top IT firms see revenue drop amid war, relocations
LNG and bio-LNG: which gas will be the pillar of Poland’s energy transition?
Ukraine ready to export biogas as biomethane plant uses the national gas pipeline system for the first time
United Nations says Earth on track to heat by a dangerous 3.1°C
Czech coal magnate Tykac to finance ex-president Klaus' climate sceptic think-tank
PPC to take over Europe’s biggest onshore wind farm in Romania

CENTRAL EUROPE
Orban mauled in European Parliament 'intifada'
Viktor Orban’s propaganda machine sinks to new low and gets absurdly personal with focus on Peter Magyar’s groin
Slovakia's Fico hardens opposition to Ukraine's Nato bid
Journalist associations condemn interrogation of Czech reporter by Slovak authorities
Opposition ANO registers first victory in Czech Senate elections as cabinet braces for reshuffle

SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Ankara okays Turkish, Israeli and Qatari co-sponsoring of Azerbaijan defence fair despite Erdogan’s Gaza “outrage”
Hungarian PM Orban says he has a plan to unblock North Macedonia’s EU path
Nato deploys additional 200 troops to bolster KFOR readiness in Kosovo
Far-right politician Sosoaca rejected as presidential candidate in Romania

EASTERN EUROPE
New Nato boss Rutte: “My first task is Ukraine”
Ukraine can’t win on the battlefield, Orban tells press conference
Iran and Russia double down on strategic relations in first presidential meeting
Nine in 10 terrorist Tajiks recruited after migration period in Russia, study shows

EURASIA
Five Turkic states give nod to common Latin alphabet
Kyrgyzstan: President botches attempt to dispel concerns about graft
Four reporters convicted in Kyrgyzstan of call for mass riots, press freedom under siege warn watchdogs

OPINION
Is the Balkan region Israel’s newfound interest?
Drawing Article 5 lines for Ukraine to end the war
Putin's nuclear rhetoric hints at Ukrainian endgame
Kazakhstan’s Tokayev an authoritarian who has created “the illusion of change”, say analysts
Mongolia’s unique success story between rock and a hard place at risk

NEW EUROPE IN NUMBERS
Hungarian central bank raises gold reserves to record levels

04/11/2024

Analyzing Georgia's Recent Elections: A Complex Landscape

Georgia's crucial election on October 26 saw the ruling party, Georgian Dream (GD), return to power with 54% of the vote amid significant controversy. Claims of Russian interference have surfaced, but a deeper dive reveals a more intricate narrative.

🔍 Key Insights:

GD utilized "administrative resources" to influence results, including tactics like ballot stuffing and vote buying.

Despite these actions, GD enjoys genuine support, particularly in rural and ethnically diverse regions.

Our investigation found no evidence of Russian interference in the regional vote. The opposition, while strong in urban centres, struggled with campaigning in many regions, which aided GD's victory. A fragmented opposition lacking a clear leader also hindered their effectiveness.

This election has been framed as a choice between aligning with Russia or the EU, but many Georgians actually seek a balanced relationship with both, valuing trade with Russia alongside the benefits of EU membership.

In our follow-up analysis, we explore how GD has reshaped perceptions of the EU, casting it as part of a “Party of War”—a label that resonates negatively with many citizens.

While the elections took place in a challenging environment, the results reflect the complexities of Georgian politics, highlighting the dual challenges facing the opposition and the strategies of the ruling party.

🔗https://www.intellinews.com/long-read-georgian-dream-s-hold-over-rural-areas-won-it-the-election-351307

🔗https://intellinews.com/balkan-blog-what-went-wrong-for-the-eu-in-georgia-s-and-moldova-s-elections-351299/?source=blogs