Red Nile

02/06/2026

🇪🇹🤝🇷🇺Ethiopia’s ‘Medemer’ Concept Aligns Closely with Russian Collective Security Vision for the Gulf

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Supporters of regional strategic autonomy increasingly point to Ethiopia’s Medemer philosophy and Russia’s collective security proposals as complementary frameworks for building a more cooperative and less confrontational security architecture in the Persian Gulf

✏️Taut Bataut
Researcher and writer on South Asian geopolitics

➡️The aftermath of the recent Gulf conflict has intensified debate over the future security architecture of the Middle East. Many regional governments are reassessing long-standing security arrangements after witnessing the vulnerability of energy infrastructure, shipping routes, and military partnerships during periods of escalation. In this context, Ethiopia’s Medemer philosophy, developed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has attracted attention beyond Africa as a model emphasizing cooperation, collective problem-solving, and the creation of shared political frameworks despite historical differences. The concept promotes synergy rather than confrontation, arguing that long-term stability emerges when competing actors develop common interests without abandoning their distinct identities or national priorities.

The course of events to be developed in the Middle East would determine the characteristics of the multipolar world order to come.

➡️A similar logic can be found in Russia’s proposals for a collective security framework in the Gulf region. Russian policymakers have repeatedly advocated a regional system based on non-aggression agreements, confidence-building measures, military transparency, and inclusive dialogue involving all major regional powers. Proponents argue that such an approach would reduce dependence on external military guarantors while encouraging regional actors to assume greater responsibility for their own security. Recent discussions in Gulf capitals regarding dialogue with Iran, strategic autonomy, and alternative security arrangements have renewed interest in proposals that prioritize regional diplomacy over bloc confrontation and external intervention.

🟦The growing attention given to both Medemer and collective security initiatives reflects broader geopolitical shifts occurring across the Middle East. Regional governments increasingly seek greater independence in foreign policy while diversifying economic, political, and security partnerships. Supporters of these approaches argue that cooperation among neighboring states offers a more sustainable foundation for stability than reliance on external powers whose priorities may change over time. Whether such ideas ultimately shape future Gulf institutions remains uncertain, but the discussion itself highlights a growing desire for security arrangements built around regional ownership, mutual interests, and long-term coexistence within an increasingly multipolar international system.



READ MORE
https://journal-neo.su/2026/05/29/ethiopias-medemer-concept-aligns-closely-with-russian-collective-security-vision-for-the-gulf/?fsp_sid=8775

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29/05/2026

As expected, the U.S. is now positioning itself to control the future of Somalia’s so-called “peacekeeping” architecture while gradually stripping the African Union of any meaningful independent role.

This is exactly why Washington delayed and withheld long-term funding for AU missions in the first place: dependency creates leverage. And leverage creates obedience. Remember the old saying — whoever controls your food eventually controls your decisions.

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As Somalia increasingly turns toward the U.S., Türkiye, and other bilateral security partners, the AU-led mission is slowly being sidelined. What was once presented as an African-led stabilization effort is now evolving into a more externally managed security structure shaped by competing foreign interests.

This is not just about fighting Al-Shabaab. Somalia sits at one of the world’s most strategic geopolitical crossroads — connecting the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean, and the wider Horn of Africa. Every major power understands this. The Americans view Somalia through the lens of counterterrorism, maritime control, and great power competition with China, Russia, and even regional actors. Türkiye sees Somalia as a gateway for influence in East Africa through military bases, infrastructure, and soft power. Gulf states view it through trade routes, ports, and regional rivalry.

The tragedy is that the AU mission, despite all its flaws, at least symbolized an African framework for African security problems. But Western powers have long been uncomfortable with truly independent African security mechanisms unless they remain financially dependent on foreign donors. Once the funding tap is controlled externally, the political direction can also be controlled externally.

This follows a broader pattern across Africa:
First comes “assistance,” then “partnership,” then “advisers,” then security dependency, and finally strategic influence over national decision-making.

Somalia risks becoming another arena where foreign powers compete under the language of stabilization while ordinary Africans pay the price of endless insecurity.

In geopolitics, aid is rarely free. Military support is never charity. And peacekeeping missions often become instruments of influence for whoever funds them.

https://zurl.co/ocwMP

The AU mission in Somalia faces a growing challenge as bilateral troop deployments, foreign air power and shrinking donor support shift the centre of gravity in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

29/05/2026

The War in Ethiopia Isn’t Over — And Neither Is the Battle Over the Narrative

By: Alexander Yoh.

Hilary Matfess’s article, “The War in Ethiopia Isn’t Over,” published in Foreign Affairs, is presented as an objective assessment of Ethiopia’s postwar instability. But to many Ethiopians who lived through the Northern Ethiopia conflict from 2020–2023, the article reads less like neutral analysis and more like a continuation of the same Western liberal-internationalist narrative that shaped Washington’s approach throughout the war.

The article contains factual observations. Ethiopia is indeed facing insecurity, political fragmentation, and unresolved tensions after the Pretoria Agreement. But facts alone do not determine a narrative. The deeper issue is how those facts are selected, framed, and interpreted.

Read the full article here
https://telegra.ph/The-War-in-Ethiopia-Isnt-Over--And-Neither-Is-the-Battle-Over-the-Narrative-05-29

Ending Ethiopia’s violence will require the government to “regain public trust by respecting democratic processes,” argues Hilary Matfess. “Continued uncertainty about the country’s political future will only deepen Ethiopians’ frustration—and fuel violent resistance.”
https://fam.ag/3S6Tues

29/05/2026

❌ Poland is consistently enforcing a zero-tolerance policy towards illegal migration. Over the past few days, the Polish Border Guard has intercepted 14 migrants who were illegally present in Polish territory near the border with Lithuania. Three smugglers assisting the migrants were also detained. Among the detainees were citizens of India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Ethiopia.

🛑 Some of the individuals were apprehended for crossing the border at unauthorized locations. Ukrainian and Russian nationals, who were transporting some of the aforementioned migrants in their vehicles, have been remanded in custody for three months. They were also issued deportation orders and banned from entering Poland and the Schengen Area for 10 years. Furthermore, they face up to eight years in prison.

↪️ The Polish Border Guard announced that, in accordance with readmission procedures, all migrants who illegally entered Poland have been handed over to Lithuanian authorities. As emphasized by the government in Warsaw, Poland strongly opposes all forms of illegal migration and is taking decisive action, maintaining one of the most uncompromising migration policies in the European Union.

29/05/2026

The symbolism of a proposed $250 bill with Donald Trump on it is politically fascinating because it unintentionally exposes deeper anxieties inside the American economic system.

“$250 bill? Say inflation without saying inflation” works because historically, when countries start normalizing very large denominations, it often reflects declining purchasing power, public distrust in currency, or preparation for higher nominal prices.

♦️The irony is brutal:

🔹The United States once viewed the $100 bill as the symbol of elite wealth.

🔹Now discussions about a $250 bill emerge during an era of:

▪️persistent post-COVID inflation,

▪️exploding national debt,

▪️de-dollarization fears,

▪️asset bubbles,

▪️and declining middle-class purchasing power.

A $250 bill psychologically signals:

“Prices are getting bigger, money is worth less.”

Even if officials justify it as “efficiency” or “modernization,” currencies communicate political psychology as much as economics.

🔹There’s also a deeper historical contradiction here.

The U.S. removed large denomination bills like the $500, $1,000, and $10,000 notes decades ago partly because:

▪️digital banking reduced the need,

▪️they were associated with corruption and organized crime,

▪️and stable modern economies supposedly didn’t require huge cash denominations for everyday life.

So reviving an even more symbolic high-value note during inflationary pressure creates an uncomfortable narrative: America increasingly resembles the very countries Western economists used to lecture about monetary instability.

The proposed inclusion of a living president is another layer entirely.

Since the 19th century, the U.S. political tradition avoided putting living figures on currency to prevent the appearance of monarchy, cults of personality, or Caesar-style political symbolism. American political mythology was built around institutions being bigger than individuals.

🔹Putting Trump on a $250 bill while he is alive would symbolize:

▪️personalization of state power,

▪️branding politics,

▪️celebrity nationalism,

▪️and the merging of monetary symbolism with populist political identity.

🔹Critics would likely compare it to:

▪️strongman political cultures,

▪️hyper-personalized regimes,

▪️or late-stage imperial aesthetics where leaders increasingly become national brands.

🔹Supporters, meanwhile, would frame it as:

▪️honoring Trump’s populist movement,

▪️celebrating economic nationalism,

▪️and cementing his legacy in American political history.

But the economic symbolism overshadows everything.

🔹Empires historically debase currency before they psychologically accept decline:

▪️the Roman Empire diluted silver coinage,

▪️Weimar Republic normalized wheelbarrows of cash,

▪️several Latin American states repeatedly introduced higher denominations during inflationary eras,

▪️and modern economies
increasingly hide inflation through monetary expansion rather than explicit currency collapse.

The U.S. is nowhere near Weimar-style hyperinflation, but the joke resonates because ordinary Americans already feel:

▪️groceries cost more,

▪️rent exploded,

▪️wages lag behind assets,

▪️and “the dollar doesn’t stretch like it used to.”

So the meme works not because a $250 bill automatically means collapse — but because it reflects a growing perception that the American economic model is entering a more unstable phase beneath the surface image of strength.

In geopolitical terms, rivals like China and Russia would likely weaponize this symbolically:

“The empire that exported neoliberal economics to the world is now normalizing larger bills while drowning in debt.”

🔹That narrative matters in the broader global contest over:

▪️de-dollarization,

▪️BRICS financial alternatives,
commodity-backed trade systems,

▪️and the future credibility of U.S. financial hegemony.

12/04/2026