Agrometerology and Natural Risk management

13/08/2026

Stay Safe During Heavy Rain 🌧️

Heavy rain can cause flooding and other dangers. Please stay alert and take precautions early. Stay away from rivers, low-lying areas, and places where water may collect. Keep your belongings in a safe place, follow official warnings, and stay indoors when the rain becomes very heavy.

Your safety comes first. Please share this message and help keep your family and community safe. 🙏🌧️

13/08/2026

for Africa, valid from August 12 to August 18, 2026 (issued on August 11, 2026). It shows where rainfall is expected to be significantly higher or lower than usual for this time of year.
How to Read the Colors
The map uses a probability scale to show how likely an area is to experience unusual rainfall compared to historical averages:
•🟩 Green Areas (Above-Normal Rainfall): These regions have a higher-than-average chance of experiencing heavier rain than usual.
Green: >50% chance of above-normal rain.
/Dark Green: >65% to >80% chance (strong likelihood of heavy rainfall).
•🟥 Pink/Brown Areas (Below-Normal Rainfall): These regions have a higher-than-average chance of experiencing drier conditions than usual.
o Pink: >50% chance of below-normal rain.
o Dark Brown: >80% chance (strong likelihood of unusually dry weather).
• ⬜ White Areas: Normal seasonal conditions expected (or no strong signal for unusual weather).
Key Regional Highlights
1. Heavy Rain Expected (Green Regions):
• Central West Africa (Cameroon/Central African Republic border region): High probability (>65% to >80%) of significantly above-average rainfall.
• Eastern Sudan / Western Ethiopia: Good chance (>50%) of above-normal rainfall.
• East Coast of South Africa & Madagascar: Localized coastal regions are likely to see wetter-than-normal conditions.
• Mali/Burkina Faso Border: Moderate chance (>50%) of elevated rainfall.
2. Dry Conditions Expected (Brown/Pink Regions):
• Central/East Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, South Sudan, western Kenya): High probability (>65% to >80%) of unusually dry conditions.
• West African Coast (Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire): Strong signal for below-normal rainfall.
• Southwestern Tip of South Africa: High likelihood (>80%) of drier-than-usual weather.
• Eritrea / Red Sea Coast: Below-normal rain expected.
Practical Takeaway
• Farmers & Resource Managers in the green areas should prepare for potential heavy rain

08/08/2026

Roobii dhufu guyyaa keessa dukkanaa'uuf jedha. Namoonni taatee kana ilaaluuf eegaa jiru.

Kan isin arguu dandeessanis iddoo isin itti jirtaniifi fageenya addeessi irratti argamturratti hundaa'a.

➡️ https://bbc.in/4wGf4Ga

03/08/2026

"El Niño is not just on our doorstep, it is inside the house and turning up the heat."

Those are the words of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, responding to a new warning from the World Meteorological Organization based here in Geneva: a strong El Niño is developing and expected to intensify throughout August–October 2026.

What does that mean in practice?

🌡️ Above-normal temperatures forecast across most of Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America

🌧️ Wetter-than-normal conditions expected in the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southeastern South America, and southern Europe

🏜️ Drier-than-normal conditions forecast across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, northwestern South America, and northern Europe

Sea surface temperature anomalies in key monitoring regions are expected to exceed 2.9°C compounded by exceptionally warm global oceans and a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

WMO and its partners across the UN system are already briefing governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors to act before impacts unfold.

As WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo put it: "The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow."

Full report 👉 link in comments

06/07/2026

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.

Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.

“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

06/07/2026

TROPICAL AFRICA | AgroClimate Intelligence

Following the below-normal rainfall conditions observed across parts of tropical Africa over the past two weeks, as consistently indicated by global weather and climate models, the suppressing atmospheric pattern has now weakened. Normal to above-normal rainfall is therefore expected to become increasingly established across much of the region.

As highlighted in our earlier outlook, the temporary rainfall suppression was primarily driven by large-scale upper-level convergence and enhanced subsidence of relatively cool, dry air over tropical Africa and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. This atmospheric configuration was associated with the suppressing phase and propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO).

The MJO suppressing phase has now shifted eastward toward the Indian Ocean and East Africa, as the active phase is positioned over western Pacific, allowing more favorable atmospheric conditions for convection to redevelop. Consequently, rainfall activity is expected to strengthen across much of tropical Africa, particularly over West and Central Africa.

This marks a favorable window for farmers to intensify planting activities where adequate soil moisture has been restored, while continuing to monitor local weather conditions.

Based on the latest outputs from the NMME and CFSv2 climate models, together with correlation-weighted anomaly forecasts for West Africa, the probability of widespread July–August dry spells (including the seasonal August Break) of West-Africa remains relatively low, as above-normal rainfall signals continue to dominate. However, localized and relatively weak rainfall interruptions may still occur from mid-July through early August across parts of southern Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, eastern Liberia, southern Togo, southern Benin, and portions of southwestern Nigeria.

Looking ahead, the persistence of wetter-than-normal conditions is also increasing the potential for flood events during the August–October period. We will continue to monitor this evolving risk and provide timely AgroClimate Intelligence updates.

Farm Smart. Grow Resilient. 🧺

10/05/2026

25/04/2026

ni hojjana
***
(Ebla 25 hanga Caamsaa 01, 2026) Eegamu
Yaada Waliigalaa
Torban dhufan keessa kutaaleen Oromiyaa baay’een rooba ni argatu. Hamma roobaa irratti hundaa’uun bakkeewwan sadiitti qooduun ni danda’ama:
• Rooba Cimaa (Milimeetira 60 oli):
• Kutaaleen Kibbaa fi Kibba-Bahaa, keessattuu Guji, Guji Lixaa, Boorana, fi Boorana Bahaa rooba cimaa (halluu cuquliisa cimaa) ni argatu.
• Godinaaleen akka Jimmaa, Iluu Abba-Boora, fi Bunnoo Beddellee kutaaleen tokko tokkos rooba gaarii ni argatu.
• Rooba Giddu-galeessaa (Milimeetira 20 - 60):
• Godinaaleen akka Baalee, Baalee Bahaa, Arsi Lixaa, fi Arsi akkasumas Harargee Lixaa fi Bahaa rooba giddu-galeessa ta’e (halluu cuquliisa ifaa) ni argatu.
• Rooba Xiqqaa (Milimeetira 20 gadi):
• Kutaaleen Oromiyaa Dhihaa fi Kaabaa kanneen akka Wallagga (Lixaa, Bahaa, Qellem, Horroo Guduruu), Shawaa (Lixaa, Kaabaa, Bahaa, Kibba-Lixaa) fi Finfinnee naannawa ishee jiran rooba xiqqaa (halluu magariisa) argatu jedhamee eegama.
Dhaamsa fi Of-eeggannoo
1. Qonnaan Bulaadhaaf: Naannolee roobni salphaa hanga giddugaleessaa keessatti eegamu (fakkeenyaaf Guji fi Boorana) bishaan roobaa kufisuu fi lolaa qabachuun barbaachisadha.
2. Horsiisee Bulaaf: Naannolee gammoojjii keessatti roobni kun margaa fi bishaan horiidhaaf waan ta’uuf carraa gaariidha.
3. Lolaa: Bakkeewwan halluu cuquliisa cimaa qaban keessatti lolaan tasaa uumamuu waan danda'uuf xiyyeeffannoo gochuun barbaachisaadha.
Gabaabaatti, torban kun kutaalee kibbaatti rooba cimaa, kutaalee kaabaa fi dhihaatti immoo rooba xiqqaa kan qabudha.

Agrometeorology Advisory

08/04/2026

, 2026)
***
1. Rooba Cimaa (Milimeetira 90 - 200)
Naannooleen dhihaafi giddu-galeessa Oromiyaa tokko tokko rooba jabaa argatu. Isaanis:
• Jimmaa, Iluu Abbaa Boor, Buno Beddee, naannoo baha Wallaggaa fi Horroo Guduruu Wallaggaa.
• Naannooleen kunneen halluu cuquliisaan waan hammatamaniif, roobni isaanii baay'ee cimaa dha.
2. Rooba Giddu-galeessaa (Milimeetira 30 - 90)
Naannooleen baay'een rooba giddu-galeessaafi gaarii ta'e argatu. Halluun isaanii magariisa gubbaafi magariisa ifaa dha:
• Wallagga Dhihaa, Qellem Wallagga, Shawaa Dhihaa, Shawaa Kaabaa fi Shawaa Kibba Dhihaa.
• Akkaataa kaartaatiin, Shaggar City fi Finfinneenis rooba giddu-galeessaa kana keessatti ramadamu.
3. Rooba Xixiqqoo (Milimeetira 5 - 30)
Naannooleen bahaafi kibbaa rooba gad-bu'aa argatu. Halluun isaanii magariisa baay'ee ifaa dha:
• Arsii, Arsii Dhihaa, Baale, baha Baale, Gujii, Gujii Dhihaa, Boorana, Harargee Bahaa fi Dhihaa.
Gabaabaatti: Torbee kana keessa dhiha Oromiyaatti rooba cimaa, giddu-galeessaatti rooba gaarii, bahaafi kibbaatti immoo rooba xixxiqqootu eegama. 💪💪

Agrometeorology Advisory