28/08/2025
Manipulation of the Djiboutian Population Census: Issues and Consequences
://afartimes.com / August 2, 2024
Launched on Friday, April 20, 2024, the General Population and Housing Census (RGPH-3) implemented by the National Institute of Statistics of Djibouti (INSTAD) mobilized nearly 1,550 census agents in the capital and the interior regions.
This census, presented as a fundamental tool for the planning and implementation of public policies, has raised some doubts about the real motivations of this survey.
Unfortunately, these fears seem to be confirmed with the announcement of the "so-called provisional results" on June 26, 2024, the eve of the Republic's Independence Day. As if to take advantage of the national torpor and pass off the announcement, however excessive and irrational it may be. Indeed, the figures presented as official by INSTAD remain delusional and questionable in many respects.
with the previous census
Despite a constant and positive demographic in Djibouti, the RGPH-3 comes in total contradiction with the previous official census recorded in 2009 , very controversial also at the time. Unless an epidemic or a war would have decimated a quarter of the population established in the regions, no logical explanation can be retained in these statistics, except the immaturity and amateurism of the people in charge of this census.
Urban emigration would be a perfectly plausible consideration, but this analysis calls into question national strategies and internationally supported efforts to implement decentralization and the pragmatic discourse that results from it. And since Djibouti is a small perch, this urban exodus would be noticed very quickly anyway.
with a study
Between April and June 2024, the IPC – Integrated Food Security –, an agency of the FAO, conducted a study on malnutrition in the Republic of Djibouti and compiled a table of the people surveyed as part of this study. Unsurprisingly, the figures presented in this study seem more representative of demographic realities, especially in the interior regions.
When the residents of the Markazi, Ali Addeh and Holl-Holl camps are subtracted, the total population count may be confused with that put forward by Instad, to within a hundred thousand souls (128,814) who, however, are not listed in any Instad data.
If we compare the data from Instad and the IPC, the contrast is somewhat glaring and there is a serious lack of foresight regarding the INSTAD counts for the North and Southwest regions.
ethnically oriented imbalance
The census in Djibouti has always posed a problem in terms of the bias of the census body. Indeed, in a highly tribalized country where public positions are developed and defined based on a tribal perspective, tribal ancestry remains a de facto claim and inevitably becomes a benchmark that is susceptible to manipulation.
Agreed to from the outset with a certain apprehension, it now appears clear that the primary and underlying objective in the implementation of RGPH-3 was purely political with electoralist overtones.
Political representation : Initially, the minority status of the Afar ethnic group reinforces and legitimizes the current political system's ambitions to lead the country, believing that the mechanics of numbers are the only valid argument for claiming the reins of power. As such, it does not hesitate to surf on extremist currents and hubris-filled discourses to consolidate this state of affairs.
The manipulation of demographic data distorts the effectiveness of development policies, particularly in towns such as Dorra, Andabba and Hanlé, which are becoming increasingly nomadic due to a lack of adequate infrastructure.
The manipulation of population censuses remains a common practice in Djibouti, with multiple and often serious consequences. The credibility of public institutions is seriously undermined, especially with regard to the Afar ethnic group, the primary victim of this biased data. To ensure effective and fair public policies, it is essential that census data be collected and processed in a transparent and impartial manner.
@ https://afartimes.com
