Na Draki Pacific

22/04/2026

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/nations-need-to-prepare-now-key-atlantic-ocean-current-is-much-closer-to-collapse-than-scientists-thought

An alarming study claims the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening more than believed previously. But experts say its findings are far from the final word.

07/04/2026

Official flood warning Fiji Meteorological Service 1.30am Wednesday 8 April

NADI RIVER - NAWAKA RIVER - TUVA RIVER now exceeding flood level

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIVE FOR FLOOD ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 1.30AM ON WEDNESDAY 8TH OF APRIL 2026.

FLOOD ALERT
A FLOOD ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF TAVUA RIVER AND BA RIVER.

FLOOD WARNING
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS ADJACENT TO AND DOWNSTREAM OF TUVA RIVER IN NADROGA, NAWAKA RIVER AND NADI RIVER.

Situation: Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu Category 3 was located near 18.9S 175.4E or about 255km west-southwest of Nadi and 300km west of Kadavu at 6pm today. TC Vaianu is currently moving south-southeast at about 18km/hr and is expected to lie about 305km south-southwest of Kadavu and about 420km south of Nadi at 6pm tomorrow.

HIGH TIDE LEVEL LOW TIDE LEVEL

LAUTOKA 10.08AM 1.77M 3.50AM 1.04M
SUVA 10.38AM 1.70M 4.30AM 0.91M

HAZARD: RIVER FLOODING

SOURCE: NEAR REAL TIME RIVER LEVEL DATA AND RAINFALL FORECAST INFORMATION

IMPACT: WATER LEVELS ARE INCREASING STEADILY IN THE TUVA RIVER AND THE NADI AND NAWAKA RIVER.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FLOOD WILL BE ISSUED AT 4.30AM TOMORROW UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES.

Nadi at Town Bridge_WATER LEVEL@0130AM080426

Tuva below confluence WL@0130AM_080426
Issued From: RSMC Nadi

07/04/2026

A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA, MAMANUCA AND SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, KADAVU AND VATU-I-RA PASSAGES.

06/04/2026

Morning update. Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu 7 April

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06/04/2026

There are 2 active tropical cyclones in the south west Pacific.

05/04/2026

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05/04/2026

Warnings -

A Heavy Rain Warning is Current for all of Fiji

A Tropical Disturbance Advisory for TD11F is Current for Fiji

Weather Situation: TD11F located to the far northwest of Nadi is the dominant weather system affecting the weather over Fiji and surrounding open waters. The centre of TD 11F was analysed close to 13.1S 171.4E or about 450 kilometres east of the Banks archipelago in northern Vanuatu. The cloud signature is improving with each passing hour, indicative of falling pressure near the centre. The likelihood of this system becoming a named tropical cyclone later today is moderate, increasing to high by the early morning hours of tomorrow. This is a significant weather system and will dominate weather for Fiji the remainder of this weekend and through much of the coming week ahead.

Today: Sultry and unsettled throughout Fiji with mostly cloudy skies and moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. Scattered showers tending to periods of rain by tonight, more prevalent along the windward coasts of the larger islands and about the maritime islands of Lomaiviti, Lau and Cakaudrove. Occasional afternoon or evening thunderstorms developing later in the day with locally heavy falls and associated flash flooding likely.



Tomorrow: TD11F will begin to move southeastward passing over waters between Vanuatu and Fiji on Monday. Overcast and unsettled as the broad rain band within the convergent wind flow on the eastern side of this low moves over Fiji, bringing widespread heavy rain at times to most parts of the country, but more so about the west. Occasional thunderstorms can be expected also. Flash flooding is likely to become a significant issue by tomorrow. Winds will tend northeast to northerly, becoming fresh and squally at times later in the day as the developing tropical low / tropical cyclone moves closer.

Outlook: TD11F is forecast to move slowly but steadily south southeastward on Tuesday. You are encouraged to plan on the basis of a strong (possibly severe) tropical cyclone developing over ocean waters west of Fiji later this weekend and early next week. All of the model forecasts are in agreement that this system will intensify significantly as it moves closer to Fiji during the coming 24 to 48 hours, however NONE predicts landfall over any of the islands of Fiji. This may change.

Right now the closest approach to Fiji is still forecast to occur between mid afternoon and midnight on Tuesday as the centre passes around 350 to 400 kilometres southwest of Viti Levu. Based on current predictions, locations likely to be closest to the centre of this system as it passes are towns, villages and resort islands of the Mamanuca group, and the Viti Levu coast from Momi Bay to the Sigatoka River mouth. Kadavu, Vatulele and islands within the southern Lau waters may experience significant impacts also. Winds over these regions may potentially reach damaging Gale force from early Tuesday through to sunset, and potentially overnight. Heavy rain and flooding is a risk as the system is forecast to move relatively slowly on its path and even though the centre is expected to stay well offshore to the west and south of Fiji, the rain is predicted to be prolonged and widespread. Current forecasts indicate that this system will strengthen even further after it passes to the south of Fiji and loses its warm core before transitioning into a non tropical cyclonic weather system.



With heavy rain expected to continue across the country throughout Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread local flash flooding is expected. River flooding will be a concern also. Tides are high right now following the recent full moon, but will slowly decrease each day through to the middle of next week.

The tropical low centred over waters to the east of Alotau at the southeastern tip of the island of Papua and south of the island of Bougainville has been upgraded to Category 1 TC “MAILA” this morning. TC Maila is expected to become a strong tropical cyclone over the coming days as it remains slow moving over the Solomon Sea. It will have no impact on our weather here in Fiji. It is expected to loiter close to the southwest tip of Papua for another 24 to 48 hours, then move west-southwest toward the Far North Queensland coast. No significant impacts near or over Fiji are anticipated from this weather system.

Longer term, the extended outlook is for more tropical disturbances to develop in and around Fiji over the next 4 to 6 weeks as the atmosphere and ocean waters adjust to the dying La Nina event, with a moderate to strong El Nino event predicted by the coming winter and spring.

A special message for those in the western and northern divisions - Please remain alert, and ensure that you have adequate food stores. Be prepared for possible outages of water and electricity. Listen for any advisory information from DISMAC and local authorities and heed all directives.

04/04/2026

This is an OSCAT image from 8pm local time Fiji this evening showing the circulation associated with TD11F. The centre remains well to the northwest, closer to the northern islands of Vanuatu than to Fiji. The forecast is for the centre of this system to pass 300-400 km west of Viti Levu sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening as a tropical cyclone, most likely a category 2 but possibly a severe category 3.

Winds are derived by a sensor on a polar orbiting satellite about 800km above the Earths surface using a microwave transmitter which senses the return signal via an on board sensor

Currently winds on the eastern side of the circulation centre are around 20 to 25 knots. The colour scale at the top shows the intensity of individual wind samples from the satellite. Where the sample elements are black it means the data is potentially compromised - i.e. the satellite sensor is unable to precisely measure the wind speed at the expected level of accuracy. Often this is associated with heavy rain.

For more information about the science behind these images, see the comments section below.

04/04/2026

Forget about the high pressure to the south which has kept weather relatively settled for the last week or so and focus on the two tropical lows now dominating weather in the tropical southwest Pacific. To the far north, a system is centred well west of Rotuma within the active SPCZ cloud band to the far north of Fiji, evident on the satellite image. At 8.45am this morning the regional tropical cyclone warning centre (Fiji Meteorological Service) finally referenced this system for the first time with the issuance of the scheduled 8.30am Tropical Disturbance Summary which is published twice daily. Now Tropical Disturbance 11F (TD11F), this is a significant weather system that will dominate weather for Fiji this weekend and through the middle of next week.

The second system is centred over waters 350 km southeast of the southern tip of Papua, south of Bougainville and west of the Western Province islands of the Solomon Islands. While unlikely to affect Fiji in any way, it is expected to become a strong tropical cyclone over the coming days.

A wet weekend is anticipated, with widespread and very active thunderstorms embedded in the SPCZ cloud band—evident on the attached satellite image—likely to move south over Fiji over the coming days and linger across the entire country for the foreseeable future out to next Thursday. Closer to the equator the band of thunderstorm clouds associated with an active Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) straddles the equator from Nauru to the Gilbert Islands chain of Kiribati.

Today: Warm to hot and humid with moderate to fresh east to northeast winds. Mostly cloudy across Fiji today with scattered showers over most places, more prevalent along the windward coasts of the larger islands and about the maritime islands of Lomaiviti, Lau and Cakaudrove. Occasional afternoon or evening thunderstorms developing later in the day with locally heavy falls and associated flash flooding are likely.

TD11F is forecast to move slowly but steadily south-southwest initially closer to Vanuatu before recurving southeastward late tomorrow and Monday. As it does so the broad rain band within the convergent wind flow on the eastern side of this low will bring heavy rain at times to most parts of the country, but more so about the west. Flash flooding is likely tomorrow and Monday. Humid northeast to northerly winds will be fresh and squally at times.

The Tropical Disturbance Summary guidance issued this morning by the Fiji Met Service states:

TD11F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE LOWER CONVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

HOWEVER, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH CAN HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The comment GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION is completely contradictory to the current forecast guidance from all four of the publicly available global weather forecast models. All of them - the ECMWF (UK model) GFS (US National Weather Service model) ACCESS (Australian BoM model) and ICON (German model) - show significant deepening over the next 96 hours with central pressure dropping by 30 to 40 hPa during this period. The final sentence is correct, but beyond this point the advice isn’t coherent or consistent with the model predictions, and you are advised to treat the advice with caution. Further, you are encouraged to plan on the basis of a strong (possibly severe) tropical cyclone developing over ocean waters west of Fiji later this weekend and early next week.

To be fair, ALL of the model forecasts agree that this system will intensify significantly as it moves closer to Fiji early next week, however NONE predicts landfall over any of the islands of Fiji. This may change however. The screenshots below show forecast positions for each of the 4 models at midnight on Tuesday 7th April.

Right now the closest approach to Fiji is forecast to occur between mid afternoon and midnight on Tuesday as the centre passes around 400 km southwest of Viti Levu. Direct impacts on Fiji remain uncertain. The system is still in its gestational period and the situation is likely to change over the next 48 to 72 hours. Based on current predictions, locations likely to be closest to the centre of this system as it passes are towns, villages and resort islands of the Mamanuca group, and the Viti Levu coast from Momi Bay to the Sigatoka River mouth. Kadavu, Vatulele and islands within the southern Lau waters may also experience significant impacts. Winds over these regions may potentially reach damaging Gale force. Heavy rain and flooding is the big risk risk as the system is forecast to move relatively slowly on its path staying offshore to the west and south of Fiji, so rain may be prolonged and widespread.

Current forecasts indicate that this system will strengthen even further after it passes to the south of Fiji later next week as it transitions into a non tropical cyclonic weather system and loses its warm core.

With heavy rain expected to continue across the country throughout Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread local flash flooding is expected. River flooding will also be a concern. Yesterday was a full moon, so tides are high right now but will slowly decrease each day through to the middle of next week. Please remain alert.

Meanwhile the developing tropical low further west near the Solomon Islands (TD37U - it's in the Australian / PNG Area of Responsibility) will very likely intensify into a very strong tropical cyclone over the far western Coral Sea later during the latter part of the Easter weekend. Earlier forecasts predicted that this system would track west-southwest towards the North Queensland coast, however the most recent forecasts suggest it may linger close to the southwest tip of Papua for several days. No significant impacts near or over Fiji are anticipated from this weather system.

Longer term, the extended outlook is for more tropical disturbances to develop in and around Fiji over the next 4 to 6 weeks as the atmosphere and ocean waters adjust to the dying La Nina event, with a moderate to strong El Nino event predicted by the coming winter and spring.

30/03/2026

Rare, but very hazardous given the amount of maritime movements in the Mediterranean Sea and the highly populated cities in the surrounding countries an the many islands in the region.