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Tenzer Strategics, Paris (2025)

16/07/2025

Due to time constraints, we neglected to mention Nicolas Tenzer's 139th article on his international politics and security blog Tenzer Strategics, which was published a fortnight ago. It is slightly shorter than usual and freely accessible. It already attracts many thausends of readers, and has been republished by the Kyiv Post.
Nicolas starts from the premise that the problem is not so much that “Putin is abusing our patience,” but precisely that we, the Allies, are still stuck, without admitting it, in this form of “strategic patience” which is one of the most disastrous concepts bequeathed by Barack Obama.
This essay is a plea for action because, let's be clear, on the European side, despite the progress I also point out, we are still very far from the mark. By mentioning ad nauseam, like an absurd stylistic clause, the possibility or even the desire, even in a very distant and uncertain future, for peace talks with Russia, they show that they have not understood the reality of Russian power—or they are pretending not to.
Perhaps, in the end, and this is one of the elements of Nicolas Tenzer's conclusion, the Ukrainians alone, through their intelligence and bravery, will save them from this descent into the abyss of history.

Actually, No, the Patience of Western Leaders Is Their Guilt—and Their Grave

16/07/2025

In this 140th long-read on his international politics and security blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer questions what it would really mean to deter .
But above all, he shows that the concept of itself, as applied to Moscow, is probably largely inadequate. It is a revival of the conceptual legacy of the Cold War, which is no longer valid today.
He therefore proposes a thorough reexamination of this concept, at least as it is used in relation to Russian all-out war, and suggests exploring what it means in practical terms to go beyond deterrence.
Since you are here, please consider subscribing to Tenzer Strategics. You will have then full access to the in-depth essays Nicolas publishes there (140 long-reads to date).

But Is Deterrence Really the Point?

29/06/2025

There has been much debate about the Israeli and US strikes on Iran.
Beyond the contrasting views on the substance, Nicolas Tenzer returned to the close links between international law and the security dilemma in this 138th long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics.
He is also reexamining how we should uphold three key articles of the United Nations Charter: Articles 2, paragraph 4, 27, paragraph 3, and, above all, 51, and the R2P.
Nicolas also notes a long-standing tendency among many democratic leaders to wait until the situation has deteriorated significantly before taking painful decisions. In most cases, early intervention would have been effective and low-risk, and would have protected international law requirements.

The Duty to Act and the Preservation of the International Legal Order

05/06/2025

In this 137th long and detailed essay on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer analyzes the strategic, diplomatic, and fundamentally political consequences of the impressive Spider's Web operation launched by the Ukrainians. Much has been said about its strictly technological and military aspects, but he felt it was necessary to go further.
This piece is divided into three parts.
In the first, he shows that, by its very nature, this operation embodies four potential strategic revolutions, which may be uncomfortable for some Allies who only support Ukraine from afar, but which they must face up to.
In the second part, Nicolas suggests that the Allies, or so-called Allies, should learn fundamental lessons in terms of reorienting their aid to Ukraine, forging their narratives and rebuilding their own defense. This should logically lead them to abandon the false patterns that continue, almost three and a half years after the launch of Russia's all-out war, to pervert their thinking.
In the third part, he examines what he calls the Ukrainian strategic nexus. In particular, he strives to demonstrate that the seemingly contradictory statements we hear about the realities on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia's strength, whether authentic or exaggerated, must be taken together to understand the dynamics at work and prepare our own strategies as Europeans. To date, Nicolas sometimes fears that, in the end, only the Ukrainians have really shown strategic intelligence.
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The Ukrainian Operation of June 1, 2025 Has Long-Term Political Implications

01/06/2025

In this 136th long read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics —apologies for not sharing the previous ones immediately, which we will do gradually — Nicolas Tenzer continued the discussion on certain elements of his latest book Fin de la politique des grandes puissances (The End of Great Power Politics), published a little over a month ago by Éditions de l'Observatoire.
This book has sparked numerous discussions with friends and colleagues and at various conferences, and Nicolas thought it would be useful here not to summarize his book for a non-French-speaking audience, but to answer the three major questions it has raised.
The first was to reexamine the reality of the decline in power or the possible marginalization in the long term of the three countries often considered to be the main great powers. The lasting decline of Russia, which he had already established more than fifteen years ago in another book Le monde à l'horizon 2030. La règle et le désordre (The World in 2030. The Rule and the Disorder), is beyond doubt. The loss of the United States' status as a great power, which could maybe remain the world's leading economic and even military power, but would no longer play a role in organizing and stabilizing the world order, is perhaps not inevitable, but it is the path that US presidents have been following for almost twenty years, and Trump will accelerate it. The slowdown in China's march toward world domination seems more counterintuitive, but many factors are likely to contribute to it.
The second question concerned the possibility of a scenario other than the one developed in his book: that of resistance from revisionist powers and the inability of small and medium-sized states, particularly in Europe, to impose a different course of world events. Here he explains why his book does not rule this out and what its main characteristics would be. One of the main objectives of the book was precisely to explain why and how it was possible for the leaders of the free world to avoid this.
There remained a third set of questions, those relating to the concrete organization of what Nicolas had called the G-infinity. Here, he shows that it is not just a variant of the classic (and often simplistic, because they seek to be reassuring) bipolar, unipolar, multipolar, or apolar models (G2, G1, GX, G0), but that it represents a fairly radical change in nature.
Nicolas Tenzer will certainly have the opportunity to return in a few months to other debates raised by this latest work, which is of course also a continuation of his previous book ( ).
Since you are here and if you enjoy the detailed essays Nicolas Tenzer publishes on Tenzer Strategics, please consider subscribing to the full service, which will give you access to the entire archive (136 long-reads to date).

Beyond my New Book: an Attempt at a Strategic Road-Map

22/02/2025

In this 131st long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, published last Sunday, Nicolas Tenzer proposes a radical reassessment of the transatlantic relations in the light of the administration's positions. The conclusion is, unfortunately, blunt: is dead. For how long, he doesn't know, but this assessment calls for a heart-rending revision of the security policy of Europe and the US former allies in Asia.
Some seek reassurance by evoking the continuity of certain postures between the Obama, Biden and Trump administrations. It is true that, as Nicolas has often criticized, the non-intervention of the former in in 2013 and 2015 and in Ukraine in 2014, the aid delivered in dribs and drabs by the latter to Kyiv, called into question the credibility and reliability of Washington. Joe Biden had the opportunity, with the Allies, to defeat Moscow in and we would not be where we are today. However, America remained our ally. This is no longer the case today.
Trump's vision of the world, of law and of truth is the polar opposite of the principles that Europe defends, but also of all international treaties. J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference, as well as the statements of Trump himself and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, show over and over again that freedom, democracy and the rights of peoples have become targets of the new administration. Trump is allying with Moscow, in an unprecedented reversal of alliances, and is ready to leave the Ukrainians under its domination. as it is might not survive.
This means that Europe must considerably increase its defense and switch to a war economy, as it should have done long ago. It also requires it to replace the United States, which has become a hostile power in many cases and absent elsewhere, to defend what remains of the international legal order and solidarity between nations. We are facing an abyss, but let us not sink into defeatism, neither over Ukraine nor over the future of Europe. Nicolas elaborates on a few avenues to explore here.
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The Age of Europe’s Maturity and the Enforcement of International Law

25/12/2024

In his 130th long-read on his International Relations and Strategy blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer examines the following paradox and attempts to draw out its ultimate consequences: many experts claim that isn't doing so badly, and has all the means at its disposal to attack on a long-term basis, while others intend to show that Russia's and are collapsing, and that this can only have lasting effects on Moscow's ability to pursue its military effort.
Both types of story can be used by Kremlin relays in the West: some to deduce that Ukraine cannot win the war and must negotiate; others to call for less vigilance towards Russia and to nip in the bud awareness of the need for massive rearmament. Both ultimately lead to a lowering of our guard, on the one hand by giving in immediately to Moscow, and on the other by failing to increase our capabilities.
Nicolas's first part shows that the two narratives form a kind of mirror image. Propaganda can in fact play on a priori diametrically opposed statements to convince different audiences. Conversely, an analysis of reality shows that Russia is the major threat to the world, and above all to Ukraine and Europe, and that it is weakening permanently. This is not a contradiction.
This is the subject of his second part, devoted to a detailed analysis of the Russian economy. He easily points to all the signs of an undoubtedly irreparable collapse and asserts that it is not yet destroyed and can withstand, at least for a certain number—unpredictable—of years the shocks it is self-inflicting. Niicolas develops an analysis of its military capabilities, for which it is too early to sign the death certificate.
A third section places these arguments in the current geostrategic context, where we hear voices dangerously evoking the words “negotiations” or “peace talks”. The West has been guilty of not breaking up the economy and the military war effort when it was easier to do so. Today, it is guilty of wanting to give in at the moment when Russia's real weakening would require a much greater blow to precipitate its downfall. It's all the more irresponsible not to do so, as giving Moscow a respite would allow it to further intensify its threat to Europe.
Finally, in a fourth part, Nicolas Tenzer demonstrates that we are in a context—with the victory of the rebels in , the strong resistance of the people, the big demonstrations in and other pro-Russian European regimes—where the wind is changing direction. Now is not only the time to deal Moscow the final blow, but to nip defeatist narratives in the bud. The only defeat the people want is for Russia.
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How Democracies’ Peace Narratives Help Strengthen a Dying Russia

12/12/2024

In his 129th long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer looks at the liberation, which no one had predicted, of . The Syrian people liberated themselves. The hope that only the fall of the totalitarian and criminal Assad regime can bring is back. This does not mean, of course, that there are no more clouds — far from it. But without this departure, the future would have been closed forever.
In the first part, Nicolas returns to the sin, which will never be atoned for, of the Western democracies towards Syria. They allowed around a million people to be massacred, mainly by the regime, and , without attempting the slightest intervention. They have only partially denounced the crimes, almost never those of Moscow and Tehran, and for a long time they have acted as if they did not count, either morally or strategically. Judging by their half-hearted support for , it is far from certain that this same guilt no longer exists.
In the second part, he shows how this desire not to save has been fed by five narratives borrowed from classical geopolitics, which are at once false, intellectually stodgy and in the interests of revisionist and dictatorial regimes. These narratives, detailed in this essay, are as follows: the fear of uncontrollable chain reactions, as if regime maintenance did not provoke them; the attachment to diplomatic fictions that consists in misnaming things; the so-called realism that turns out to be its opposite; the refusal of indignation as a key to entering the reality of international relations; and, finally, the myth of stability.
In the third part, Nicolas not only analyzes the present difficulties, but also attempts to draw up the outlines of a roadmap for Syria's future. There was the winter of Assad, then the Syrian autumn; the wait is intense for spring to blossom again. The road is still long, but it can be mapped out.
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What the Fall of the Assad Regime Says About the West’s Strategic Blinkers

08/12/2024

In this 128th long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer endeavors to recall some fundamentals about 's war against and Moscow's necessary defeat. There is a lot of confusion at the moment, which Donald 's positions have largely reinforced. Ambiguities, as always, play into the enemy's hands.
In a long first part, Nicolas discusses in detail what is at stake, what we might call the “big picture”. The stakes, it should be remembered, go far beyond the war in Ukraine. It's long-term security that needs to be considered.
In the second part, while returning to the recent overtures made by President Zelenskyy, which he attempts to explain, he shows why the question of Ukraine's territorial integrity is non-negotiable. A form of partition, even a provisional one, would entail a major risk. He also discusses the question of the security guarantees that Kyiv must be given, including full and immediate membership of .
In his final section, Nicolas develops the question of the specific stakes and duties for , which cannot simply “watch” events passively. He demonstrates how it can and must become a major, committed player in the war. This will require painful and complicated choices. This makes it all the more necessary to explain to public opinion that democratic countries have no choice.
Since you're here, and even if we're more “giving Thursday”, if you enjoy the long-reads Nicolas Tenzer publishes here and have the opportunity to do so, please consider taking out or giving a friend a full subscription to Tenzer Strategics, and you'll have access to the entire archive (128 long essays published to date).

The Fate of Ukraine and Europe Is Decided Now

24/11/2024

Nicolas Tenzer's 127th long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics is not yet another attempt to predict what foreign policy will be like in 's second term. The exercise is still too uncertain due to persistent uncertainties about his real intentions and the relative weight of the various members of his team.
In any case, to consider charting possible courses, it is first essential to see where previous foreign policies leave us. It is no exaggeration to say that the assessment is catastrophic, and that the doctrinal legacy is itself absent. It is against this backdrop of emptiness that we must analyze the possible consequences of a return of . This certainly does not mean the beginning of an American decline in terms of economic and military power, as some have been vainly claiming for several years. It would only herald a disharmonious mix of disordered power and laissez-faire.
So, without claiming to be able to predict, there are some relevant indicators linked to what could be characterized as the ideological logic of .
The first is indifference to freedom, human rights and international law in general. Nicolas shows why we can easily deduce from this a lack of interest in defending the territorial integrity and freedom of peoples. One step at a time, this leads logically enough to a neglect of the international security of states, especially small and medium-sized ones.
The second is the overemphasis on a certain, ultimately short-termist, conception of the economy. The author also strives to demonstrate here that, even beyond a trade war that could also penalize the United States, the abandonment of any development aid policy and the withdrawal, once again, from the Paris Agreement, this orientation could also be disastrous for as well as Taiwan. On the other hand, it would ultimately cost America much more.
Finally, Nicolas'd like to point out the consequences of the future White House resident's ideology in terms of strengthening dictatorships. Let's put it this way: first and foremost, dictatorships would gain a new form of legitimacy, which would not be a bad thing in terms of international relations. The consequences of such a policy would be all the more catastrophic, in fact, as this abandonment of the field to revisionist powers began long before. In the end, Trump will not constitute such a rupture, except that it will carry it to its final possible consequences. Will Europe and the democracies of Asia be able to cope?

Deciphering Trump’s International Relations Logic

26/10/2024

In his 126th long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer discusses the situation in after today's parliamentary elections. This is clearly a pivotal moment. This post-election period will be decisive not only for the country, but also for Europe and its security.
In his first part, Nicolas returns to the question of Tbilisi's officially recognized candidacy for membership of the . It posed serious questions when it was first recognized, but the many plans made at the time, bearing in mind that 20% of Georgian territory has been occupied by Russia since 2008, are already in danger of being overtaken by events.
In the second part, he shows that 's control over the country has only worsened since he last wrote about it a year ago. The Kremlin has clearly instructed the ruling party to overturn the results of the vote if, as expected, they are not in its favor. A Belarussian or Venezuelan-style scenario is to be feared. Just as has not given up its domination of , it will not let Georgia slip through its fingers.
In the third part, he elaborates on what this could mean, and it is both painful and very worrying. The violence of the repression could reach new heights, reminiscent of that of the Yanukovych government aided by Russian special forces against the protesters in 2014. What then would be the possible options for the EU states and the US? Nicolas is afraid we shouldn't expect much, but he suggests a few avenues.
Finally, in the fourth part, he demonstrates that the Georgian people, more than 80% of whom are attached to Euro-Atlantic integration, are not fooled, but they know that they can only count on themselves. The Resistance will continue, and the Georgian people will have to update the way in which they were able to resist Soviet power in the dark times that could once again become our present. But once again, for the Georgian people, it is the victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia on the ground there that will be the real sources of hope.
While you're here, please consider taking out a full subscription to Tenzer Strategics, insofar as you're able, and you'll have access to the entire archive (126 long-reads to date).

Let’s Put a Stop to Russian Encroachment

24/10/2024

In this 125th essay on his blog Tenzer Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer analyzes the meeting between Secretary Antonio and on the sidelines of the summit in Kazan, Russia. It provoked righteous indignation.
He demonstrates here that not only does such a meeting show, on Guterres's part, at the very least, a total disregard for , but also that, on several points, it could be considered as not respecting the United Nations Charter.
The fact is that this much-contested, and rightly so, Secretary-General does not uphold the international law of which he is supposed to be the guarantor. Meeting a man wanted by 124 of the world's police forces because of his indictment for by the International Criminal Court - ICC is a serious offense.
Beyond that, Nicolas is developing the argument that this visit also reflects an outdated vision of on Guterres' part, to say the least, particularly in his relationship with a state guilty of massive crimes and which has launched an all-out war against .
As Nicolas already showed in 2021, Guterres alongside many democratic political leaders also ignores the basic rules of communication in international relations, and similarly pays no attention to the factors of legitimization that are more important than ever.
Finally, this meeting undermines the Allies' efforts, however very much insufficient, to ensure a victory for Kyiv in accordance with international law. He is thus acting contrary to the objectives of peace and even of the United Nations Charter. It further aggravates the case of an organization that did not need this new blow to its credibility.
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Old-Fashioned Diplomacy Against Security and the Principles of the UN Charter

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