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Tenzer Strategics, Paris (2025)

03/10/2025

Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear Reader,
Thank you once again to each and every one of you for being Tenzer Strategics's regular readers, some of you since day one. Your support means more to us than we can say.
Some of you are full subscribers, others are free subscribers. That is everyone’s choice, occasionally also dictated by the circumstances you find yourselves in. Some have also chosen to become founding members of this blog with an exceptional contribution that is a special mark of recognition. Others have left this blog because they didn’t have time to read it, or simply because they weren’t satisfied. Others, we've learnt, have abandoned it unintentionally, simply because their card was no longer valid or had not been accepted for mysterious reasons. I am not the master of the system!
Be that as it may, a 150th essay is cause for celebration.
So, to celebrate his 150th long read on Tenzer Strategics, and until midnight on Tuesday, October 7, Nicolas Tenzer is pleased to offer you an exceptional 20% discount on any one-year subscription.
If you are able and willing, this act of support for Nicolas's work would be greatly appreciated.
Happy reading, and a big thank you for your loyalty, some of you for four years now!
With our warmest personal regards,
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Nicolas Tenzer

Security and international issues and political risk analysis. Click to read Tenzer Strategics, by Nicolas Tenzer, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

02/10/2025

This is Nicolas Tenzer's 150th long-read on his international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics—a sort of anniversary that prompts us to express our warmest thanks to all our subscribers, some of whom have been with me since my very first post here. We are also deeply grateful to those who wish to support Nicolas's work over the long term by subscribing in full—and get an unlimited access to the entire archive.
This 150th essay may seem rather gloomy, as it deals with the rise of what can only be called American fascism, whose possible establishment over the long term—this is not a prophecy, but nevertheless a possibility—can only have a contagious effect in Europe, which, as we know, is not immune.
The first part of this piece traces the various elements of this fascism. Admittedly, many of these have already been emphasized by the press and by numerous intellectuals on both sides of the Atlantic. In attempting to present an overview that brings together the various manifestations, even if it is not entirely exhaustive, Nicolas has come to realize for himself how deep the evil runs.
The second part concerns extreme polarization, which is a tool in Trump's hands, the ins and outs of which must be understood. It is not unknown in certain European countries either, with occasionally differences that must also be understood. Polarization is a tool for establishing illiberalism and destroying the political debate that is characteristic of any democracy. This polarization accompanies a movement leading to the destruction of the individual in favor of the group, whose homogeneity is demanded. Needless to say, the historical precedents are well known.
Finally, a third part emphasizes one of the foundations of this fascism: the subjugation of all countervailing powers themselves in the name of a “people” that does not exist, and first and foremost the justice system. It is, moreover, the law itself that no longer has a place in such a world.
Continuing other reflections already expressed in another paper a few months ago, the author points to the questioning of the rule of law, a trend that is also on the rise in many European countries. In the name of its supposed sovereignty, the people are destroying themselves. This movement is here to stay, and the counterbalances are currently too weak to stem a possible disaster.

Dark Times Are Not Behind Us—For a Long Time

30/09/2025

Given the coverage of his piece published yesterday in the leading French daily Le Monde, Nicolas Tenzer felt he should release a slightly expanded English version for subscribers to his International Relations blog Tenzer Strategics.
He is truly grateful to the newspaper for giving him permission to do so.
It's actually his 149th long-read on this blog.
We do sincerely hope that you will enjoy reading — speaking the truth to the European unpower...
If so, please consider fully subscribing to Tenzer Strategics. It will be very much appreciated.

For Our Own Security, It Is Time to Stop De-Escalating

20/09/2025

This 148th long essay on Nicolas Tenzer's international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics, was not, according to the author, the easiest to write.
It deals with the fate of Israel, the Law, Jewish tradition, Palestine, anti-Semitism, and how to remain faithful to the historical legacy of the Holocaust.
We will not summarize it this time, as we believe that would betray Nicolas's thinking. In this in-depth essay, he has simply tried to ask some undoubtedly difficult questions that impinge on the relationship between myth and history, and above all on the basis of Israel's very specific legitimacy.
Ultimately, it is this question that governs the unsettling reflections he is attempting here.

Israel Against Itself: Disquieting Reflections on an Uncertain Future

11/09/2025

In this 147th long read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics (published Tuesday evening before the Russian drone attack in Poland), Nicolas Tenzer revisits the issue of risk-taking. This refusal to take risks, from 2000 to the present day, for 25 years, that has allowed Russia to go ever further in its aggression and mass crimes. The failure to take risks has caused it to grow exponentially, and we now face a risk that is infinitely greater than that which decisive action would have entailed. This issue is more relevant than ever.
The three parts of Nicolas's essay take an in-depth look at three categories of risk that any statesperson worthy of the name must consider.
The first part shows that sometimes the risk of non-war (i.e., the refusal to wage war) is greater than the risk of war—in fact, because war is already here and we refuse to consider it. There would thus be a major risk for Europe and beyond in not going all the way with military aid to Ukraine and accepting a territorial compromise on its part.
The second part deals with another risk: that to the international order, or what passes for it. He shows how the “strategic signaling” that Europe is reluctant to go to war would ultimately be the worst possible signal to send to revisionist powers. It would precisely encourage them to go to war.
The third part develops an aspect that is almost never addressed and goes beyond strategy: the risk to liberal and democratic societies. Sometimes, of course, we talk about the risk to the life of democracies posed by a refusal to fight instilled in the minds of part of the population of Western Europe, which is inseparable from an acceptance of servitude. But this risk goes much further. Nicolas shows that the refusal to accept the risk of war ultimately reflects, or goes hand in hand with, an abandonment of the founding principles of democracies, in particular freedom, the rule of law, and respect for international norms. There is a link between the erosion of these rules or the hostility of certain political groups towards them and this refusal. Finally, his question becomes even more unsettling: is it not ultimately indifference to the distinction between good and evil (with the major figure of indifference to mass crimes) that is taking hold in large sections of our societies? The refusal to accept the risk of war may go hand in hand with a forgetting of what constitutes the foundation of humanity.
Since you've come this far, if you'd like to support Nicolas Tenzer's work, please consider fully subscribing to Tenzer Strategics for unlimited access to the entire archives (147 long-reads to date) and a complete reading experience of the new papers, or if you can afford becoming a founding member.

Acting Before the Last Dusk

31/08/2025

In his 146th long read on his international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer examines the future of BRICS+, an increasingly incoherent and, above all, inconsistent organization. Its latest summit in Rio showed even more than previous meetings its inability to forge a solid agenda, resorting instead to long-winded rhetoric devoid of any substance. They of course side with the criminal and revisionist powers of the group. This led him to coin the expression “BRICS-zero.”
In the first part, Nicolas demonstrates why BRICS+ cannot in any way be seen as a counterweight to the G7. Nor can it be considered a renewed expression of the Group of 77. He points out in particular that Beijing may find it less and less interesting, which would spell the end for the group, even though it won't probably leave. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is meeting this weekend, may be a more effective structure in its eyes for pursuing its goals.
The second part emphasizes that, above all, BRICS+ cannot represent the countries of the South—quite the contrary. It can even be noted that this group is hostile to responsible development, the fight against environmental pollution and climate change, not to mention its hostility to good governance and combat against corruption.
In a third part, he argues that responsible countries of the South should form their own alliance, both to counter the preemption of their interests by BRICS countries that do not care about them and to serve as a spur to the countries of the North and West. In the Trump era, it is all the more necessary to forge such a strong alliance in terms of trade, development aid, promotion of the rule of law and preservation of the planet. Between the imposture of the BRICS and the attacks on a just and sustainable international order by MAGA America, there is a third way, bringing together the South and the West, which must now be organized.
Since you are here, please consider subscribing to Tenzer Strategics. Your support for Nicolas Tenzer's work would be greatly appreciated. You will enjoy unlimited access to the archives (146 in-depth essays to date).

BRICS Zero: Good News or Bad News?

21/08/2025

In this 145th long read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer paints a grim picture of the Washington meetings. The Europeans undoubtedly limited the damage for Ukraine and Europe, which was the reason for their visit. But this was only necessary because they were still subject to the Trump administration's delusional narratives.
Nicolas's essay shows that it is time to face reality at a moment when the reality of war in Europe is becoming more pressing. The first is that there will never be a peace deal with Russia. We must stop thinking that this is possible, except in the event of a Russian defeat, or that it is even desirable.
He also develops lengthy arguments, both legal and security-related, in this article to stress that European democracies must be much firmer and clearer on the question of occupied Ukrainian territories. They must speak out unequivocally against any concessions to Russia.
The second part is devoted to security guarantees. Nicolas also demonstrates that, in this area too, we are in a kind of grim shadow theater where many are paying lip service. He shows what such guarantees would look like—and how far we are from them in reality. As they are presented today, but also for historical reasons, he points out their lack of credibility.
Nicolas Tenzer concludes with the prospects for the coming war and with some deadly questions about European leadership at a time when fear must not overwhelm us, especially as war looms on the horizon.
Given the pressing issues addressed in this essay, we have not put up a paywall. If you would like to support Nicolas Tenzer's work on Tenzer Strategics, please consider subscribing or becoming a founding member, which will give you unlimited access to the archives (145 long-reads to date).

The Grim Ball of Illusions of Peace—and Security

17/08/2025

In this 144th long essay on his international relations blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer shows that the Anchorage summit was a lasting stain on America. Even though nothing was definitively concluded, Trump's applause for the worst criminal against humanity in the 21st century amounted to a normalization of that regime and of mass crime itself. In fact, Trump has already given Putin everything, and this comes as no surprise. For several months, Nicolas has consistently demonstrated that the ideological collusion between the two men was here to stay.
It is now up to European leaders to finally draw all the conclusions, in their narratives and in their actions. This essay stresses why and how they must take responsibility and reject any peace agreement that would lead to the surrender of Ukrainian territories, even accompanied by so-called security guarantees that would be nothing of the sort.
Europe, he concludes, will have to face a hundred years of solitude and prepare for it.
This time, there will be no 1941.

This post is free to read. But if you would like to support Nicolas Tenzer's work he does at Tenzer Strategics, you can subscribe for full access and get unlimited access to the entire archive (144 in-depth essays to date).

The US Has No Agenda But Russian; It Cannot Be the One to Set It

07/08/2025

In this 143rd long read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer takes a slightly different look at a concept that he has often had occasion to introduce in the field of foreign policy and, in particular, Russia's war against Ukraine: the cognitive dissonance.
Starting from the classic models of Leon Festinger, who did not, however, study the case of heads of state and government, he analyzes the different applications of the concept. Above all, Nicolas gives several current examples and, in the first two parts, he examines the two concrete consequences: fear and flight on the one hand, and the rhetoric of nonsense on the other (of which negotiations with Russia are certainly a part).
A third, shorter part shows that the prospects for healing are slim.
Since you are here, and if you enjoy the detailed essays Nicolas Tenzer publishes on Tenzer Strategics, please consider subscribing to the full version or becoming a founding member, which will give you full access to the archives (143 long essays to date).

Anatomy of Intellectual and Strategic Sleepwalking

02/08/2025

In this 142nd long-read on his international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer examines 's medium- and long-term strategy. Admittedly, there are still a number of unknowns, and he shows that a fully coherent “plan” has not yet been established. However, he points to certain structural trends that make the regime established by Xi Jinping quite different from that of his predecessors.
Following on from his previous essay, which focused specifically on relations between China and Russia, he begins by dismantling a number of common misconceptions that too often continue to influence democratic leaders. These misunderstandings distort our perceptions of China's intentions.
The first part of this essay is devoted to Chinese . Contrary to some analyses, Nicolas is convinced that the economic dimension in its many forms (growth, technological catch-up and struggle for domination, predatory investment policy, etc.), essential though it may be, does not fully capture the reality of China's current power.
In the second part he emphasizes on what he defines as a “contamination strategy” that breaks completely with the international legal order.
Finally, in the third part, he develops some policy recommendations in line with what he called in his last book, The End of Great Power Politics (Fin de la politique des grandes puissances, Éditions de l'Observatoire), an alliance of containment.
Since you are here, and if you enjoy the in-depth essays Nicolas Tenzer publishs on Tenzer Strategics, please consider subscribing to the full version. Not only will you receive all new pieces in your inbox, but you will also have access to the entire archive (142 long-reads to date).

(If it Really Wants Anything)

24/07/2025

In his 141st long-read on his international politics blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer takes another fresh look at the relationship between and , which he describes as an axis rather than an alliance.
In particular, he shows how China has become less and less averse to the destructive radicalism of the Russian regime and has even learned from it in terms of propaganda techniques. This has become a tool for Beijing in its quest to weaken democracies. Putin knows that Xi Jinping will do anything to prevent his defeat and downfall—hence China's support for his war of extermination against Ukraine. All this goes hand in hand with Beijing's ideological shift, which he will discuss further later.
At the same time, Russia is mainly giving China a leg up, which has established a form of strategic domination over it. The imbalance between the two powers on almost every level is obvious. Russia has accepted, in exchange for a series of advantages, some of which are humiliating, a form of vassalage that can only increase over time. Beijing will, moreover, have less and less need for Moscow. But it is up to us to assess the significance of this destructive axis which, beyond the relationship between these two powers, is primarily directed against us. Defeating Russia in Ukraine is the first step... in a Chinese strategy.
Since you are here and if you are interested in reading these long essays that Nicolas Tenzer publishes on Tenzer Strategics,, please consider fully subscribing or becoming a founding member and you will have access to the entire archive (141 in-depth essays to date).

Impossible Alliance, Unlikely Breakup, Limited Distance

16/07/2025

Due to time constraints, we neglected to mention Nicolas Tenzer's 139th article on his international politics and security blog Tenzer Strategics, which was published a fortnight ago. It is slightly shorter than usual and freely accessible. It already attracts many thausends of readers, and has been republished by the Kyiv Post.
Nicolas starts from the premise that the problem is not so much that “Putin is abusing our patience,” but precisely that we, the Allies, are still stuck, without admitting it, in this form of “strategic patience” which is one of the most disastrous concepts bequeathed by Barack Obama.
This essay is a plea for action because, let's be clear, on the European side, despite the progress I also point out, we are still very far from the mark. By mentioning ad nauseam, like an absurd stylistic clause, the possibility or even the desire, even in a very distant and uncertain future, for peace talks with Russia, they show that they have not understood the reality of Russian power—or they are pretending not to.
Perhaps, in the end, and this is one of the elements of Nicolas Tenzer's conclusion, the Ukrainians alone, through their intelligence and bravery, will save them from this descent into the abyss of history.

Actually, No, the Patience of Western Leaders Is Their Guilt—and Their Grave

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