Data Driven Stocks

Data Driven Stocks Two PhD degrees, extensive market knowledge, not only charting - but but also option flows, macro-economy, bonds and politics. I love posting political memes.

OpenAI has committed to about $750 billion of compute spending through 2030.That raises an obvious question: how does a ...
09/06/2026

OpenAI has committed to about $750 billion of compute spending through 2030.

That raises an obvious question: how does a company with $13.07 billion in audited 2025 revenue pay for it? The bull case only works if revenue scales to hundreds of billions of dollars a year. From $13 billion, that is roughly a 20–50x jump, depending on the year you pick.

Those kinds of projections almost never arrive on schedule. But the cost does! Not even GPT-6 Astra will save them

The UK faces an intense problem comparable to the war with France in 1793. Since 2021 the UK has seen 6 years of increa...
09/06/2026

The UK faces an intense problem comparable to the war with France in 1793. Since 2021 the UK has seen 6 years of increases in Long term gilts. This happens very infrequently, and has only occurred four other times in history, being the American War in 1776 - 1781, the war with France in 1793 - 1798, the First World War in 1909 - 1917, and the war with Korea and post-war Britain in 1947 - 1952. These four instances all were either wars or the aftermath of war.

This is something different. Since 2020 yields have increased by 4.32 compared to 1793 where they increased by 2.6. This instance is the only one on record in the 10-year gilt series that falls over the 4 year mark.

Out of the four instances three returned within 10 years as the Yield on war Gilts Declined. The fourth did not. From 1952 to 1974, long yields hovered around 15.17% and inflation was increasing. Great Britain saw multiple currency devaluations and was forced to go to the IMF for aid. Even though the war ended in 1945, gilt yields continued to increase.

The borrowing for the 2026 year saw a 10-year gilt at 5.14% and a 30-year gilt at 5.79%. This is happening after the gilt briefly shot up to 5.89%, which is the highest gilt rate since 1998.

S&P 500 without dividend has similar performance as gold. Though it's biased due to the recent gold rally.
09/05/2026

S&P 500 without dividend has similar performance as gold. Though it's biased due to the recent gold rally.

I think the "200DMA sect" grew too big. Buying 200DMA for $MSFT is not better than holding it alone. It's actually worse
08/30/2026

I think the "200DMA sect" grew too big.

Buying 200DMA for $MSFT is not better than holding it alone. It's actually worse

08/29/2026

Japanese yields are rising slowly but steadily. In the past they were very volatile (see panel B), they were going up/down. But now they go up, but steadily.

08/29/2026

This year, very often 3-5 am ET oil futures are dumping for an "unknown" reason

08/28/2026

RAM DDR Memory prices went 10.5x since March 2025 :-(

08/23/2026

Data collection through Gmail, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), Google Maps, and all other platforms is one of the core businesses of the modern world.

That's how AI started: through the enormous harvesting of data from human users.

08/22/2026

Number of peace deals between the U.S. and Iran hits a new all time high

08/10/2026

Anyone remember Monday, February 5, 2018?

Most people know it as Volmageddon.

For most of 2017 the market was quieter than it had ever been. On January 4 the VIX printed 8.92, the lowest reading of the whole year. Betting on calm had paid so well for so long that an entire set of funds existed to do that, and only that.

Then Monday happened. The S&P fell 4.1% and the Dow dropped 1,175 points. The VIX went from 17.31 on the Friday to 37.32 on the Monday, more than doubling in a day. It has never jumped that hard in one session, before or since.

It got worse after the bell. Those funds were built so that when fear rose they had no choice but to buy protection back. Fear had just spiked, so all of them had to buy at once, inside the same fifteen minutes, and their own buying pushed the price higher, which forced them to buy more of it. By Tuesday February 6 the VIX touched 50.30.

SVXY lost 83% in a single session. XIV did not survive at all (liquidated). Credit Suisse pulled the plug and it stopped trading after February 15.

The index took months to recover. The S&P was down 10.2% from its January 26 high by February 8, and it did not close back above that high until August 24 (yes, yes - it did happen in the very past, that stock were going down)

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