Blackbloc HongKongers/黑群義工

11/10/2025

中美貿易再度惡化，導致全球股市大幅下挫。這次的衝擊不同於以往的短暫波動，而是顯示局勢正持續升溫。

早在 2022 年，中國便開始為潛在戰時風險作準。當時四川的「公園復耕計畫」表面上屬於環保與城市綠化整治，實際上也被解讀為在強化糧食自給能力，以防戰時貿易封鎖造成糧食中斷。作為全球主要糧食進口國之一，中國對供應鏈中斷風險的警覺可見一斑。

在軍事層面，中國近年行動明顯。多家衛星影像與軍事研究指出，北京近郊正興建大型地下或半地下指揮設施，可能作為戰時指揮中樞。另有外媒報導，中國正在建造具備展開橋梁與支撐結構的特殊驳船，可支援重型裝備登陸行動。同時，部分中國民用船隻被設計為軍民兩用，在戰時可轉為軍用運輸。與此並行，中俄海軍近年持續開展聯合巡航與反潛、空防訓練，顯示兩國軍事協調日益緊密。這些跡象雖未獲官方全面證實，但已構成外界觀察中國進行體系化戰略準備的重要線索。

在外交層面，拜登與習近平會談時曾直接詢問「中國是否計劃於 2027 年攻打台灣」，此舉顯示美方對中方戰略意圖的高度關注。習近平曾於特朗普首任期遭其非傳統策略擾亂節奏，如今面對類似挑釁，北京顯然已具備更成熟的應對機制。

前一輪貿易戰已顯示，一旦全球供應鏈受阻，美國內部也將承受重大衝擊。相對而言，中國掌握稀土資源這張關鍵籌碼，於全球產業鏈中具備不可替代地位，使其在潛在衝突中擁有更高談判空間。

綜觀軍事部署、糧食安全、貿易策略與國家治理架構，中國近年已完成一套可運作的「戰時閉環」應變體系。此次中美貿易戰的再度升溫，並非偶發，而是長期戰略布局下的結果。

The renewed deterioration of U.S.–China trade relations has triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets. Unlike previous short-term fluctuations, this latest shock signals a sustained escalation in tensions.

As early as 2022, China began preparing for potential wartime risks. The so-called “park-to-farmland restoration” campaign in Sichuan, officially framed as an environmental and urban greening initiative, was widely interpreted as a move to strengthen domestic food self-sufficiency in case of wartime trade blockades. As one of the world’s largest food importers, China’s awareness of supply chain vulnerability has been evident.

On the military front, China’s recent actions are increasingly visible. Multiple satellite images and defense analyses suggest that large-scale underground or semi-underground command facilities are under construction near Beijing, potentially serving as wartime command centers. Foreign media have also reported that China is developing specialized barges equipped with deployable bridges and stabilizing structures to support the landing of heavy military equipment. In addition, several civilian vessels in China have been designed with dual-use capabilities, allowing rapid conversion for military logistics in times of conflict. Parallel to these developments, China and Russia have intensified joint naval patrols and anti-submarine as well as air-defense exercises—signs of growing operational coordination. While these activities have not been fully confirmed by official sources, together they form clear indicators of China’s systematic strategic preparedness.

Diplomatically, U.S. President Joe Biden reportedly asked Xi Jinping directly whether China plans to invade Taiwan by 2027—an unusual move reflecting Washington’s deep concern over Beijing’s strategic intentions. Having once been caught off guard by Donald Trump’s unconventional tactics during his first term, Xi’s administration now appears more experienced and calibrated in handling similar provocations.

The previous trade war demonstrated that global supply chain disruptions inflict substantial damage on the U.S. economy. In contrast, China’s control over rare earth elements—a critical resource in modern industries—grants it significant leverage within the global production ecosystem and greater bargaining power in potential confrontations.

Taken together, China’s developments in military deployment, food security, trade strategy, and state governance reveal the formation of a functioning “wartime closed-loop” response system. The renewed escalation of the U.S.–China trade war is therefore not a coincidence, but rather the outcome of a long-term strategic trajectory.

#中美貿易戰
#地緣政治
#中國戰略部署
#全球市場
#供應鏈安全
#稀土資源
#軍事觀察
#拜習會
#中俄合作
#台海局勢
#戰時經濟
#國際局勢分析

07/10/2025

當量子力學遇上神秘學

神鬼或許並非虛構，而是存在於另一個維度或精微能量狀態中的客觀實體，類似於量子的疊加態。我們在日常狀態下無法感知祂們，並非因祂們不存在，而是因意識受限於特定頻率，無法觀察該層面。這與量子力學的邏輯相似——我們也看不見量子本身。

只有在意識塌縮或特定心智狀態下，雙方的頻率才可能重疊，人類因而與祂們「相遇」。

現代物理學指出宇宙或許不止三維，「多重維度」其實只是人類對更高層次現象的形象化描述。若我們能將自身意識縮小至與量子相當的層級，或許就能觀察到這些存在。

至今，科學仍無法完全確定光的本質是波還是粒子。事實上，這種分類本身可能已限制了人類的思維方式。光的「疊加態」概念，是在波粒二象性之後才被提出，用以描述觀測前未定形的狀態。若從換位思考的角度看，或許「疊加態」才更接近事物的本質，而「波」與「粒」只是人類為了理解而強行賦予的形態。

以此類比，「神鬼存在論」也可理解為：人類的意識與感知框架將宇宙切割成有限的三維經驗，因此我們只觀察到部分現象。若多維才是宇宙的本質，那麼我們所見的三維世界，反而只是偏離真實的投影。

若以量子層級的邏輯觀察，「運氣」或許並非抽象概念，而是一種能量互動的結果。萬物在被光（即量子能量）觸及時，其狀態便會改變；同理，人類的「運氣」也可能源於與外界能量場的互動強度與頻率。

當一個人長時間暴露於更高能量狀態（如陽光、積極情緒或和諧環境）時，其生理與心理頻率更容易與外界產生正向共振，這種協調便顯現為「好運」。反之，若能量頻率低或被遮蔽，則呈現阻滯與低潮。

這也解釋了為何許多人習慣在夜晚獨處時沉思。夜的「陰」屬靜態，光的「陽」屬動態；當外界能量減弱，內在意識頻率變得穩定，人更容易感受到細微的思緒流動與能量變化。這一靜一動的平衡，本身即是宇宙能量運行的縮影。

按此邏輯，東方的陰陽論述或可視為與西方科學形成一個邏輯閉環。

When Quantum Mechanics Meets Mysticism

Spirits or supernatural beings may not be imaginary but could exist as objective entities in another dimension or in a subtle energetic state—similar to the quantum concept of superposition. Our inability to perceive them in daily life is not due to their nonexistence, but because human consciousness is confined to specific frequencies, preventing us from observing that layer of reality. This logic parallels quantum physics—we cannot directly see quanta either.

Only when consciousness collapses or reaches a specific mental state might these frequencies overlap, allowing humans to “encounter” such entities.

Modern physics suggests that the universe may extend beyond three dimensions. “Multiple dimensions” could merely be a human way of visualizing higher-level phenomena. If we could shrink our awareness to the quantum scale, we might be able to perceive such existences.

To this day, science cannot definitively say whether light is a wave or a particle. In fact, this categorization may itself restrict human thought. The idea of “superposition” emerged later to describe the uncollapsed, undefined state prior to observation. From a different perspective, superposition may be closer to the true nature of things, while “wave” and “particle” are simplified forms created for human comprehension.

By analogy, the “existence of spirits” can be understood as a similar limitation of human perception. Our consciousness divides the universe into a finite three-dimensional experience, allowing us to see only part of reality. If multidimensionality is the universe’s true nature, then what we perceive as the three-dimensional world may in fact be a distorted projection of that greater reality.

From a quantum-level perspective, “luck” may not be an abstract concept but the result of energetic interaction. Everything changes when touched by light (that is, quantum energy); similarly, human fortune could arise from the strength and frequency of interaction with external energy fields.

When a person is exposed to higher energy states—such as sunlight, positive emotions, or harmonious environments—their physiological and psychological frequencies tend to resonate with the surroundings, manifesting as “good luck.” Conversely, low or obstructed energy leads to stagnation or decline.

This also explains why many people prefer to reflect alone at night. Night, representing “yin,” is static; light, or “yang,” is dynamic. When external energy diminishes, inner consciousness stabilizes, making subtle thoughts and energetic shifts easier to sense. This balance of stillness and motion mirrors the universal flow of energy itself.

By this logic, the Eastern concept of Yin and Yang may be seen as forming a logical closed loop with Western science.

#量子力學 #神秘學 #多維宇宙 #意識研究 #存在論 #科學思辨 #宇宙之謎

06/10/2025

若無意外，2027 年是中國完成攻台準備的時間目標。這並非開戰的確定年份，而是解放軍在該年前完成所有軍事與政治準備的節點。是否行動，仍將視國際局勢與時機而定。

回顧近月局勢，自九月中國軍演後，中、俄、以、美之間的互動顯著頻繁，整體氣氛愈發緊張。近期，美國召喚軍方高層備戰，同時美國駐港領事與中共及港府的多項互動與新聞稿，也顯示政治局勢正處於微妙變化之中。這些動作表明，主要國家都在為可能的突發事件進行防範與戰略部署。

我早在五月初即撰文預測，第三次世界大戰若有前兆，美洲地區可能率先出現衝突。隨後，美國以「打擊毒品走私」為名，對委內瑞拉商船展開行動，印證局勢正逐步升溫。

國際政治的運作並非電影般直白。各國領導人必須依賴民意與內部共識，即使是專制政權，也需內部支持與政治正當性。

結論：應及早警覺，審慎觀察，以策萬全。

If nothing unexpected occurs, 2027 marks the target year for China to complete its preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. This does not necessarily mean war will break out then—it is the deadline for the People’s Liberation Army to finalize its military and political readiness. Whether Beijing acts will depend on international dynamics and timing.

In recent months, tensions have escalated notably. Since China’s military exercises in September, interactions among China, Russia, Israel, and the United States have become increasingly frequent, reflecting a tightening global atmosphere. Recently, the U.S. has called military leaders to readiness, while the American Consulate in Hong Kong has issued a series of statements and meetings with both the Chinese and Hong Kong authorities—signs that the political landscape is shifting and becoming more volatile. These developments suggest that major powers are quietly reinforcing strategic positions in anticipation of possible instability.

Back in early May, I predicted that if a Third World War were to have an early flashpoint, it might begin in the Americas. Soon after, the United States, under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, took action against Venezuelan commercial vessels—further evidence that tensions are steadily rising.

Global politics rarely unfold as clearly as in films. Even authoritarian governments rely on internal consensus and legitimacy, while democracies must navigate public opinion and political constraints.

Conclusion: Stay alert, observe developments carefully, and prepare for all contingencies.

#國際局勢 #台海危機 #中國 #美國 #俄羅斯 #以色列 #地緣政治 #軍演 #第三次世界大戰 #國際觀察 #戰爭風險 #全球安全 #戰略分析

06/10/2025

若無意外，2027 年是中國完成攻台準備的時間目標。這並非開戰的確定年份，而是解放軍在該年前完成所有軍事與政治準備的節點。是否行動，仍將視國際局勢與時機而定。

回顧近月局勢，自九月中國軍演後，中、俄、以、美之間的互動顯著頻繁，整體氣氛愈發緊張。近期，美國召喚軍方高層備戰，同時美國駐港領事與中共及港府的多項互動與新聞稿，也顯示政治局勢正處於微妙變化之中。這些動作表明，主要國家都在為可能的突發事件進行防範與戰略部署。

我早在五月初即撰文預測，第三次世界大戰若有前兆，美洲地區可能率先出現衝突。隨後，美國以「打擊毒品走私」為名，對委內瑞拉商船展開行動，印證局勢正逐步升溫。

國際政治的運作並非電影般直白。各國領導人必須依賴民意與內部共識，即使是專制政權，也需內部支持與政治正當性。

結論：應及早警覺，審慎觀察，以策萬全。

If nothing unexpected occurs, 2027 marks the target year for China to complete its preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. This does not necessarily mean war will break out then—it is the deadline for the People’s Liberation Army to finalize its military and political readiness. Whether Beijing acts will depend on international dynamics and timing.

In recent months, tensions have escalated notably. Since China’s military exercises in September, interactions among China, Russia, Israel, and the United States have become increasingly frequent, reflecting a tightening global atmosphere. Recently, the U.S. has called military leaders to readiness, while the American Consulate in Hong Kong has issued a series of statements and meetings with both the Chinese and Hong Kong authorities—signs that the political landscape is shifting and becoming more volatile. These developments suggest that major powers are quietly reinforcing strategic positions in anticipation of possible instability.

Back in early May, I predicted that if a Third World War were to have an early flashpoint, it might begin in the Americas. Soon after, the United States, under the pretext of combating drug trafficking, took action against Venezuelan commercial vessels—further evidence that tensions are steadily rising.

Global politics rarely unfold as clearly as in films. Even authoritarian governments rely on internal consensus and legitimacy, while democracies must navigate public opinion and political constraints.

Conclusion: Stay alert, observe developments carefully, and prepare for all contingencies.

#國際局勢 #台海危機 #中國 #美國 #俄羅斯 #以色列 #地緣政治 #軍演 #第三次世界大戰 #國際觀察 #戰爭風險 #全球安全 #戰略分析

為何我判斷第三次世界大戰以迫在眉睫，極有可能以區域性代理人戰爭的形式爆發

在觀察當前全球形勢後，我認為世界正處於一個極為不穩定的時期，並且第三次世界大戰的爆發機率正越來越高。幾乎所有的指標都顯示，戰爭的陰雲正籠罩全球，且這場戰爭將有別於以往的一戰和二戰。第三次世界大戰極有可能以區域性衝突和代理人戰爭的形式進行，即大國間通過支持不同的地方勢力來間接參與戰爭。這樣的戰爭方式既避免了大規模的核災難風險，又讓各國在地緣政治和經濟利益的博弈中更加隱蔽且複雜。

我早在這些衝突爆發初期時，就已經在文章中警告過，第三次世界大戰的危機並非不可能，而是一個逐漸顯現的現實。從當時我發表的觀察中來看，世界的政治局勢正在迅速演變，並將不可避免地走向衝突。隨著國際間各方勢力的對立加劇，戰爭的威脅愈加明顯。

1. 區域性代理人戰爭的興起

當前的世界局勢已經出現了多個區域衝突，這些衝突正是全球大國間權力鬥爭的延伸。以俄烏衝突為例，這場戰爭已經成為典型的代理人戰爭。雖然俄羅斯和烏克蘭是主要交戰方，但背後的支持力量卻來自全球不同的強國。

俄羅斯獲得來自中國、伊朗等國家的支持，這些國家通過軍事援助、資源支持和經濟支持等方式幫助俄羅斯對抗西方陣營。

烏克蘭則在美國和歐洲的支持下，獲得了大量軍事援助。這種國際化的支持力量，使得這場衝突的規模不僅僅是兩國之間的對抗，而是全球大國博弈的一部分。

中東局勢亦呈現類似的格局。以色列儘管擁有強大的軍事力量，但仍然依賴美國的軍火支持來維持戰爭，而另一邊的伊朗及其盟友（如巴勒斯坦的哈馬斯和黎巴嫩的真主黨）則得到來自中國的軍事支持。這一切證明了，當前的中東衝突不再是單純的地方性問題，而是全球勢力的角力場。

2. 印巴衝突的象徵意義

印巴衝突的爆發再次印證了大國間的代理人戰爭模式。巴基斯坦明顯得到了中國的軍事支持，而印度則顯示出與美國的緊密關係。這樣的支持不僅限於軍事裝備，還可能涉及情報支持、外交背書等多方面的合作。這表明，即便是地理上遙遠的衝突，依然受到大國策略的影響，並成為代理人戰爭的一部分。

3. 南美洲的潛在火藥庫

在觀察當前局勢時，我也注意到南美洲的潛力與危險。這一地區擁有大量的重要資源，包括石油、天然氣、稀有金屬等，是全球大國爭奪的重要領域。無論是地域利益、經濟利益還是資源爭奪，南美洲完全符合大國戰略的需求。一旦該地區爆發衝突，將迅速牽動全球政治經濟格局，並且可能成為第三次世界大戰的重要戰場之一。

4. 第三次世界大戰的特殊性：區域性與代理人戰爭

相比以往的一戰和二戰，第三次世界大戰更有可能以區域性衝突的方式發生。這是因為現代軍事技術的發展和核武器的威脅使得全面戰爭變得過於危險，幾乎無法承受。然而，世界大國的權力爭奪仍然是無法避免的，因此這些國家選擇通過間接參與、支持代理人來達成自身的戰略目的。

核戰爭的破壞性過於巨大，並且全球都清楚了解這一點。因此，各國的首選策略將更多是通過代理人戰爭來發揮其影響力，避免正面衝突。

這意味著，戰爭的形式將更加隱蔽，更多的是利用代理人進行影響力競爭、信息戰、經濟制裁等方式來達成目的，而不再是傳統的大規模戰爭。

5. 戰爭是必然的，但形式會改變

正如人類歷史所顯示的那樣，戰爭從來沒有停止過，無論是一戰、二戰還是冷戰，每一次衝突的背後都暗藏著權力與資源的爭奪。在這樣的背景下，第三次世界大戰的爆發是必然的，但其形式將會有顯著區別。隨著核武器的存在，傳統的大規模戰爭將變得不現實，代理人戰爭和區域衝突將成為主要的形式。

總結：

第三次世界大戰並不像過去一戰和二戰那樣可能以全面性的大規模戰爭爆發，而更有可能以區域性衝突和代理人戰爭的形式出現。從烏克蘭衝突、中東局勢到印巴衝突，再到南美洲的潛在風險，我們可以清楚地看到各大國如何通過支持不同勢力來爭奪全球影響力。隨著全球資源爭奪的加劇和地緣政治的緊張，未來幾年內的局勢可能將進一步惡化，並且這種戰爭形式將顯示出顯著的區別。

因此，我認為全球形勢正朝著一個更加複雜和危險的方向發展，而這場第三次世界大戰將在一場又一場的代理人戰爭中逐步浮現。

Why I Believe the Third World War Is Imminent and Will Likely Erupt in the Form of Regional Proxy Wars

After observing the current global situation, I believe the world is in an extremely unstable period, and the probability of World War III is increasing. Almost all indicators suggest that the shadow of war is looming over the world, and this war will be different from the previous World Wars. World War III is most likely to take the form of regional conflicts and proxy wars, where major powers indirectly participate by supporting different local forces. This type of war both avoids the catastrophic risk of a large-scale nuclear disaster and makes the geopolitical and economic struggles between nations more covert and complex.

I had already warned in my articles at the early stages of these conflicts that the threat of World War III was not impossible, but a reality gradually emerging. From the observations I made at the time, the political situation in the world was rapidly evolving and would inevitably lead to conflict. As international rivalries intensify, the threat of war is becoming increasingly obvious.

1. The Rise of Regional Proxy Wars

The current global situation has already witnessed several regional conflicts, and these conflicts are an extension of the power struggles between major global powers. Take the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for example, which has become a typical proxy war. Although Russia and Ukraine are the main belligerents, the supporting forces behind them come from different major powers around the world.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has already become a typical proxy war. Although Russia and Ukraine are the main combatants, the supporting forces behind them come from different global powers. Russia has received support from countries like China and Iran, who help Russia fight against the Western camp through military aid, resource support, and economic assistance. On the other hand, Ukraine has received massive military aid from the United States and Europe. This internationalized support has made this conflict not just a bilateral confrontation but also a part of a global great power struggle.

The Middle East situation follows a similar pattern. Despite Israel having a powerful military, it still relies on American arms to sustain the war, while Iran and its allies (such as Palestine's Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah) receive military support from China. This shows that the current Middle Eastern conflict is no longer a purely local issue but a battlefield for global power struggles.

2. The Symbolic Significance of the India-Pakistan Conflict

The outbreak of the India-Pakistan conflict further proves the proxy war model between major powers. Pakistan has clearly received military support from China, while India shows close ties with the United States. Such support is not limited to military equipment but could also involve intelligence support, diplomatic backing, and cooperation in various forms. This demonstrates that even geographically distant conflicts are still influenced by the strategies of major powers and become part of proxy wars.

3. South America's Potential Powder Keg

In observing the current situation, I also note the potential dangers in South America. This region holds significant resources, including oil, natural gas, and rare metals, which are crucial in the global competition among major powers. Whether for territorial interests, economic reasons, or resource competition, South America fits the strategic needs of major powers. Once conflict erupts in this region, it will quickly reshape global political and economic dynamics and could become one of the key battlefields of World War III.

4. The Specific Nature of World War III: Regional and Proxy Wars

Compared to the First and Second World Wars, World War III is more likely to occur in the form of regional conflicts. This is because modern military technology and the threat of nuclear weapons make full-scale war too dangerous to bear. However, the competition for power between major nations remains unavoidable, so these nations will choose to indirectly participate by supporting proxies to achieve their strategic objectives.

The destructive potential of nuclear war is so immense, and the world is well aware of this fact. Therefore, countries’ preferred strategy will likely be to exert influence through proxy wars, avoiding direct confrontation. This means the form of warfare will become more covert, with a greater reliance on proxies to compete for influence, conduct information warfare, impose economic sanctions, and other methods to achieve their objectives, rather than traditional large-scale wars.

5. War is Inevitable, But the Form Will Change

As human history has shown, war has never ceased, whether it was World War I, World War II, or the Cold War. Behind every conflict lies a battle for power and resources. Against this backdrop, the outbreak of World War III is inevitable, but its form will be significantly different. With the existence of nuclear weapons, traditional large-scale wars will become unrealistic, and proxy wars and regional conflicts will become the dominant form.

Conclusion:

World War III is unlikely to break out in the same form as the previous World Wars, where large-scale global war occurred. Instead, it is more likely to take the form of regional conflicts and proxy wars. From the Ukraine conflict, the Middle Eastern situation, the India-Pakistan conflict, to the potential risks in South America, we can clearly see how major powers are supporting different factions to fight for global influence. As global resource competition intensifies and geopolitical tensions rise, the situation in the coming years may worsen, and this type of war will show significant differences.

Therefore, I believe the global situation is heading in a more complex and dangerous direction, and this third world war will gradually emerge through one proxy war after another.

#第三次世界大戰 #代理人戰爭 #區域性衝突 #全球政治 #烏克蘭衝突 #中東局勢 #印巴衝突 #南美洲危機 #全球大國博弈 #地緣政治 #戰爭威脅 #資源爭奪 #核戰爭風險 #全球戰爭 #國際關係 #冷戰後時代

26/09/2025

Clark Leung 真心恭喜你，你咪好鍾意上位架咩？連拎到庇護都要話自己係第一個，用啲咁淺薄功績（人地功績）認叻！宜家唔使啦，間諜仲唔威到上天花板？比我係你借勢出書挖一筆，橫掂你呢啲咁上下質地冇機會留名千古，出書到你老個陣可以拎黎同人吹你有幾巴閉！書名我幫你諗埋「21世紀臥薪嘗膽中共國間諜傳」不得了不得了！

獨立記者鄭樂捷本月24日引述消息人士報道，一名在英國取得政治庇護身份的香港大學生、同時為當地「香港學生聯盟」（Hong Kong Student Alliance CIC）創辦人的Clark Leung，涉嫌向自稱中國社會科學院歐洲研究所「研究員」提供海外港人組織資料，甚至曾向被香港國安警懸紅通緝的張晞晴稱已向國安警舉報她。英國港僑協會創辦人鄭文傑及張晞晴均已向倫敦警署報案，Clark否認收取金錢或洩密，聲稱僅限公開資訊及「貪玩」。

根據鄭樂捷的帖文，Clark於去年5月透過LinkedIn聯絡時任香港駐倫敦經濟貿易辦事處處長羅莘桉，提及香港學生組織的財政問題，並探討爭取經貿辦資助的可能性。同年9月，一名操普通話、自稱中國社科院「研究員」的人士聯絡Clark，雙方在兩個月內6次聯絡。

起初，對方詢問中國大陸及香港留學生議題，漸漸轉向海外港人組織，包括英國及歐盟的香港團體，如新成立的「歐港盟」（The European Hong Kong Diaspora Alliance），並建議Clark與社群關鍵人物聯繫，特別點名被香港國安警通緝的鄭文傑及「攬炒巴」劉祖廸。同年10月中旬，「研究員」提出支付「研究費」予Clark，甚至建議與他在香港的家人會面。

曾與Clark見面的鄭文傑去年11月4日向倫敦警署報案，信中詳細記錄Clark向鄭展示的WhatsApp對話截圖。鄭形容推測Clark可能是受指示試探鄭與英國政府的關係，又直言Clark是一個很可悲的人，因為他為了錢和名利，甘願做中共的棋子和爛頭卒。

**涉向國安舉報張晞晴**
此外，被香港國安警通緝的香港自由委員會基金會傳訊及傳媒經理張晞晴2024年12月收到Clark的私人訊息，Clark指早於2024年初已電郵香港國安警，內容包括她的Instagram動態及言論，並笑稱「香港政府做嘢好X遲…香港政府可以將年頭嘅嘢放落年尾到做」，說這是她的「生日禮物」。

張晞晴起初以為是玩笑，因Clark每兩、三周便發些無聊訊息，但今年8月有人試圖入侵她的電郵失敗，她報警時提及Clark，警方反應似「有聽過這個名字」，可能與鄭文傑的舉報有關。

Clark在回應鄭樂捷查詢時，否認主動聯絡香港經貿辦，僅在LinkedIn「follow」該辦，參考其大學生聯誼活動。Clark承認曾與「研究員」6次聯絡，前期討論學生議題，後期涉及港人組織，但他強調「只有提供新聞都有的資訊」，沒有重要機密，交談一段時間後即中斷。

對於「研究費」的指控，Clark稱對方未指定金額，他也未收取，更拒絕家人會面建議。Clark又稱，即使身為政治難民，他辦學生組織不涉政治取態，不抗拒與任何國籍的人接觸。

至於張晞晴事件，Clark矢口否認發電郵舉報，聲稱「純粹是說笑……這是純粹貪玩，如果影響到她，認為我真的有做過，真的不好意思。」他又稱，計劃將「香港學生聯盟」註冊為慈善機構，並開辦香港分部，想組織一群「口風密」的港人從事「情報工作」，監察經貿辦及中國社科院活動，因此尋求英國港僑協會支持。

**Clark發聲明稱追究誹謗言論**
Clark周三（24日）再發表公開聲明批評鄭樂捷發表「不實報道」，表面以友善的方式提問，實質為引導性問題；又稱「是次風波乃有人從中操作政治，望外界能以第三者角度明辨是非」。

他強調自己並無向「研究員」洩露任何敏感資訊，只是敷衍性質用網上公開資訊回應。他承認此舉為敏感度不足，表示深感懊悔，並與受影響人士衷心致歉。

關於鄭文傑及張晞晴報警一事，他表示已聘請本地律師事務所，對所有轉載或對他的誹謗言論保留追究權利。

圖片來源：Clark Leung FB、Simon Cheng 鄭文傑 FB、Chloe Cheung 張晞晴 X
📰👉🏻https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2025-09-26/48416231
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25/09/2025

#沉冤得雪 呢條撚樣就係之前一直誣捏我其中一個，撚人最後自然會露底，我仲好記得佢第一次聯絡我就凶我，唔理佢就話「幫我唔到」，我宜家都講翻句比佢：我真係「幫你唔到」

呢幾年為當初救人受盡屈辱，不過這也令我更清楚這個社會，認清楚自己應該如何面對，更清楚人性

#間諜 #共產黨間諜 #鬼 #野子

20/09/2025

最近我在閱讀世界政治的時候，有一個很微妙的感受。過去我一直關注俄烏戰爭，但不知不覺自己竟然像掉進了TVB劇的潛意識裡：烏克蘭幾乎自動被視為「正義方」，它的任何行動都默認為合理，而對它的意圖層面幾乎沒有思考——比如這場戰爭中，當權者是否真心希望停戰，基本上被忽略了。

如果換一個角度，每個角色都帶著自身利益去行動。澤倫斯基可能有複雜的考量：理想狀態是能在戰爭中抵抗外敵，同時不讓國家損失土地。歐盟各國大多希望以最小軍費維持安全，因此Trump對北約和歐洲的批評，某種程度上是有邏輯的。美國方面，Trump出於政績考量而有限度支持烏克蘭，也並非完全不可理解；如果烏克蘭真的存在軍費貪污問題，那支持就更需要謹慎。

回顧戰爭初期，歐洲對烏克蘭的支持其實很有限。德國最初只提供了五千頂頭盔；直到Trump上台，美國改變支援策略，局勢才逐步改變。至於俄羅斯，雖然通常被視為入侵者，但如果把時間軸拉長，從它曾希望加入歐盟卻被拒絕，以及北約逐步東擴的歷史背景來看，它的行動也並非完全沒有邏輯。

讀到這裡，我才意識到，真正理解世界政治，不只是簡單的「正義 vs 邪惡」。每個國家、每個領導人、每個政策背後，都有歷史脈絡、利益考量與現實約束。我們看到的，往往只是表象。

最近中東局勢也讓我重新思考國際政治中的微妙利益。納塔尼亞胡對卡塔爾的空襲事件，不只是單純打擊哈瑪斯，我更傾向從油價和戰略角度解讀：Trump當時施壓降低油價以削弱俄羅斯戰爭資金，而以色列的空襲無疑會對中東油價產生影響，進而間接影響美國與以色列之間的互動關係。納塔尼亞胡此舉，既可能擴展以色列利益，也同時在國際舞台上維持自身談判籌碼，但停火時機與限度仍不明朗。

深入了解以色列內部政治，更能理解其行動邏輯。以色列主要存在兩個派系：社會錫安主義偏向外交談判，修正錫安主義則主張武力手段。納塔尼亞胡及其父親屬於修正錫安主義，但他政治生涯中一直保持平衡，因此哈瑪斯襲擊事件恰好成為推動修正錫安主義者策略的契機。國際秩序混亂下，盡量擴展或爭取最大利益，幾乎成為任何角色的理性選擇。

另一方面，沙特與巴基斯坦最近簽訂互相防護協議，進一步揭示中東權力格局。巴基斯坦的核能力，使這份協議在實質上為沙特提供了一層「核保護傘」，同時向伊朗和其他地區角色傳遞戰略訊號：沙特不僅有盟友支援，也在主動塑造區域權力平衡。這種安排展示了沙特在面對伊朗或其他威脅時，既維持自主性，又增加談判籌碼。

中東局勢遠比表面衝突複雜，每一個事件背後，都有內部政治、區域利益與國際策略的多重交織。理解這些，才能看到各方行動並非單純善惡，而是利益、歷史與現實驅動下的理性選擇。

最後一題，我向ChatGPT查詢過，像「Good Judgment Project」這類美國智庫與大學合作的政治預測專案，對專家和普通人對國際事件的預測準確度都有統計。結果顯示，專家單獨的平均預測準確率大約在 60–70% 之間，具體數字還會因事件類型有所不同。

Recently, while reading about world politics, I had a subtle realization. I had been focusing on the Russia-Ukraine war, but I found myself unconsciously falling into a “TVB drama” mindset: Ukraine was almost automatically seen as the “righteous side,” and its every action was assumed to be justified, with very little consideration of its intentions—for example, whether those in power genuinely wanted a ceasefire was largely ignored.

Looking from another perspective, every actor operates based on their own interests. Zelensky may have complex considerations: ideally, he wants to resist foreign aggression while preventing territorial losses. Most EU countries aim to maintain security with minimal military spending, so Trump’s criticism of NATO and Europe is, to some extent, logical. As for the U.S., Trump’s limited support for Ukraine for political achievements is also understandable; if Ukraine indeed has issues with military fund corruption, support needs to be approached with caution.

Looking back at the early stages of the war, Europe’s support for Ukraine was actually quite limited. Germany initially provided only 5,000 helmets; it was not until Trump took office that U.S. support strategies changed, and the situation gradually shifted. As for Russia, although it is usually seen as the aggressor, if we extend the timeline to when it hoped to join the EU but was rejected, and consider NATO’s gradual eastward expansion, its actions are not entirely without logic.

Reading this, I realized that truly understanding world politics is not simply a matter of “good vs evil.” Behind every country, leader, and policy, there are historical contexts, interest calculations, and practical constraints. What we see is often only the surface.

The recent situation in the Middle East has also led me to reconsider the subtle interests in international politics. Netanyahu’s airstrikes on Qatar are not merely about targeting Hamas; I tend to interpret them from the perspectives of oil prices and strategy. At the time, Trump was pressuring to lower oil prices to reduce Russia’s war funding, and Israel’s airstrikes inevitably affect Middle East oil prices, indirectly influencing U.S.-Israel interactions. Netanyahu’s actions may expand Israel’s interests while maintaining bargaining leverage on the international stage, but the timing and limits of a ceasefire remain unclear.

Understanding Israel’s internal politics helps clarify its logic. Israel has two main factions: social Zionists, who favor diplomatic negotiations, and revisionist Zionists, who advocate military measures. Netanyahu and his father belong to the revisionist camp, but he has always sought balance in his political career. Thus, Hamas’ attacks became an opportunity to advance revisionist strategies. In a chaotic international order, seeking to expand or maximize interests becomes almost any actor’s rational choice.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan recently signed a mutual protection agreement, further revealing the Middle East power dynamics. Pakistan’s nuclear capability effectively provides Saudi Arabia with a “nuclear umbrella,” while sending strategic signals to Iran and other regional actors. Saudi Arabia not only has allied support but is actively shaping the regional power balance, demonstrating both autonomy and increased bargaining leverage.

The Middle East is far more complex than the surface conflicts suggest. Behind each event lie intricate layers of internal politics, regional interests, and international strategy. Understanding these allows us to see that the actions of various actors are not simply good or evil, but rational choices driven by interests, history, and practical constraints.

Finally, I asked ChatGPT about the accuracy of political forecasts. Projects like the Good Judgment Project, a collaboration between U.S. think tanks and universities, have statistically measured the predictive accuracy of experts and ordinary people on international events. The results show that the average accuracy of individual experts is roughly 60–70%, with exact figures varying depending on the type of event.



#世界政治 #國際關係 #俄烏戰爭 #中東局勢 #以色列 #沙特 #巴基斯坦 #地緣政治 #戰略分析 #政治思考 #全球觀察 #油價影響 #國際安全

16/09/2025

近期一系列軍事行動顯示，國際安全格局正快速變化：

卡塔爾的和事佬角色被挑戰：卡塔爾長期在中東扮演調解與和平促進角色，協助緩解區域衝突，並在國際上擔任中立調停者。此次以色列空襲多哈的哈馬斯高層成員，直接衝擊了卡塔爾的國家安全與中立地位，也引發中東國家對美國安全保障可靠性的質疑。

美軍對委內瑞拉的打擊：美國近期在拉美地區採取軍事行動，凸顯其對盟友與戰略要地的直接影響力。卡塔爾同樣在委內瑞拉問題上曾試圖充當中立調停者，這些事件顯示卡塔爾的和平角色正受到多方挑戰。

全球戰略訊號：從東歐俄羅斯增兵與無人機入侵，到中東的以色列空襲，再到拉美的美軍行動，事件呈現同步施壓與戰略測試的趨勢。各方正在觀察對手與盟友的反應，並試圖重塑地緣政治格局。

💡 分析觀點：

這不是偶然事件，而是全球多點同步升溫的戰略布局。

卡塔爾的中立調解角色受到挑戰，顯示局勢可能在多個地區同時升級。

各方正在測試反應與威懾效果，短期內國際緊張程度可能進一步加劇。

⚠️ 警告：從東歐、到中東，再到拉美，全球局勢正在形成多層次的軍事與政治壓力網，任何單一事件都可能觸發更廣泛的連鎖反應。

A series of recent military actions highlights a rapidly shifting international security landscape:

Qatar’s peacemaking role challenged: Qatar has long acted as a mediator in the Middle East, promoting conflict resolution and serving as a neutral facilitator in international affairs. The recent Israeli airstrike in Doha targeting senior Hamas officials directly threatened Qatar’s security and neutral status, raising doubts among Middle Eastern countries about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.

U.S. military action in Venezuela: The U.S. has recently conducted military operations in Latin America, demonstrating its direct influence over allies and strategic locations. Qatar has historically attempted to play a neutral mediating role in Venezuela as well, and these events indicate that its peacekeeping role is being challenged across multiple regions.

Global strategic signals: From Russia’s troop buildup and drone incursions in Eastern Europe, to Israeli strikes in the Middle East, and U.S. military actions in Latin America, these events reflect a pattern of synchronized pressure and strategic testing. Nations are observing responses and attempting to reshape the geopolitical landscape.

💡 Analysis:

These are not random events, but part of a coordinated, multi-region strategic escalation.

Qatar’s neutral mediation role is under threat, indicating potential simultaneous escalation across multiple regions.

Powers are testing reactions and deterrence, and international tensions are likely to intensify in the near term.

⚠️ Warning: From Eastern Europe, to the Middle East, to Latin America, the global situation is forming a multi-layered network of military and political pressures. Any single incident could trigger wider chain reactions.

#中東局勢 #卡塔爾 #以色列 #哈馬斯 #美軍 #委內瑞拉 #國際安全 #全球緊張 #外交與戰略 #地緣政治 #和平調停