Post factum, London (2025)

14/10/2025

⚡️30% of all energy used by humans comes from oil:

•Fuels for cars, planes and ships are made from crude oil (or petroleum).

• Electricity is sometimes generated from burning oil products, and often from burning natural gas, which is extracted together with oil in many locations.

Oil is also used to make plastics, as well as fertilisers, cleaning products and medicines.

As a result, any economy relies on the availability of oil to grow.

Almost any business involves some form of transportation, often burning fuels made from oil.

This means that oil is a component of almost any product or service.

There are few substitutes for crude oil, as alternative plastics or biomass petroleum remain fringe technologies.

Changes in oil price, therefore, strongly affect all prices in the economy.

An increase in the price of crude oil reliably creates inflationary pressure (increases prices for products in general), as producers experience higher costs.

A decrease in price, however, does not reduce inflation reliably, as sellers tend to increase profits, not decrease prices, when production costs are falling.

• Governments have better chances of reelection when fuel prices and inflation are low, particularly in the US.

Oil is a critical resource, because any economy is sensitive to a change in its price.

Buyers of oil try to prevent or cushion any price shocks.

Factories and industries buy futures contracts (obligations to buy later at a pre-agreed price), allowing them to know the costs in advance.

Governments are also increasingly concerned about securing supplies of oil.

Learn everything you need to know about Crude Oil Geopolitics in our free and ad-free report:

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12/10/2025

🇸🇦The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the largest state on the Arabian Peninsula.

Its territory covers over 2 million square kilometres, larger than France, Italy, Germany, and the UK combined.

However, the majority of this land is desert. Only 2% is suitable for agriculture, and less than 5% is urbanised.

Saudi Arabia stretches from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf, two important maritime routes linking Asia, Africa and Europe.

Religion

Saudi Arabia hosts Mecca and Medina: the two holiest cities in Islam. This makes it the spiritual centre of the Muslim world.

Between 85-90%of the population are Sunni Muslim.

Islamic law (sharia) and religious conservatism are central in Saudi Arabia, although this has been changing slightly in recent years.

Politics

Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy ruled by the House of Saud dynasty since 1932.

The throne is currently held by King Salman with growing authority concentrated in the hands of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Military

In 2023, Saudi Arabia spent 7.1% of its GDPondefence (7th largest share globally).

It is the largest defence spender in the Middle East, and 7th globally.

The Saudi army has fewer soldiers than some of its neighbours’ but is well-equipped with advanced Western weapons.

Between 2020-24, it was the largest recipient of US weapons, at 12%of total US arms exports.

Saudi Arabia hosts around 2,300 American soldiers.

Economy

Saudi Arabia is the world’s 18th largest economy, with a GDP (PPP) of $2.5 trillion.

Its economy’s largest sector is crude oil production.

In 2024, oil accounted for approximately 62% of budget revenues and over 75% of total exports.

Saudi Arabia relies heavily on foreign workers who account for approximately 75% of its labour force.

Find out more about the Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia in our recent report!

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11/10/2025

💧Fresh water is a critical resource for human survival and is expected to be increasingly competed over in coming decades.

Climate change, population growth and agricultural needs are making water more scarce (insufficient).

Access to fresh water has geopolitical significance:

•It is used as a tool to pressure nations or groups of people.
•It could be a cause for mass migration.
•Governments try to achieve self-sufficiency in fresh water.

While water covers 70% of the planet’s surface, only 3% of it is fresh water, making it highly sought after.

Fresh water normally means “not salty”, but there is no certain definition.

Water as a Geopolitical Tool

Governments are using control of rivers to exert their influence or pressure rivals.

Through the construction of dams, states are able to increase or limit downstream flows, including to neighbouring countries.

Hydroelectric dams can replace fossil fuel-produced energy and help meet growing energy needs, especially in developing countries.

However, the impact of a dam downstream depends on its design.

In our recent report, we break down all major conflicts around water security.

Read it in full, free and ad-free:

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10/10/2025

🇱🇾 Muammar Gaddafi was the dictator who ruled Libya for 42 years until he was killed by rebel forces in 2011, during the wider Arab Spring protests.

In 1969 he led a revolution against the Libyan king, establishing a republic. His political success later grew into a personality cult.

Gaddafi forced the nationalisation (government ownership) of Libyan oil industries, renegotiating the exploitative oil contracts signed during a period of monarchy following independence from Italy.

Gaddafi used Libyan oil wealth to fund a range of ambitious projects over the next decades, from social programs to military invasions, while making the economy dependent on oil exports.

He was known for his:

•Anti-imperialist stance: countering the influence of the US and the global West in Libya, Africa and the Middle East.

•Human rights violations, including killings of political opponents, war crimes and crimes against humanity.
In 2009, a civil war started in Libya as disappointment with Gaddafi’s regime grew.

In 2011, the UN Security Council authorised a NATO-led intervention in Libya to force a ceasefire. However, this operation transformed into the bringing down of Gaddafi’s regime.

Gaddafi was killed by the rebel forces during the war. The collapse of his dictatorial regime left a power vacuum (no strong political authority to stabilise the country).

After a period of instability, Libya fell into another civil war (2014-20). A ceasefire was signed in 2020, but the country remains divided between two authorities (governments).

Learn everything you need to know about the Libyan crisis in our recent report:

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01/10/2025

🌎💵 Global trade evolved from using precious metals to paper money, and today to “fiat” currencies with value shaped by supply, demand, and market confidence.

The US dollar remains the world’s most powerful currency due to its widespread use, especially in foreign exchange and global energy trade.

After 1945, the US strengthened the centrality of the dollar by providing loans to rebuild Europe and exporting industrial goods. It also holds leading voting power in global financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank.

The euro was created as part of European integration, simplifying trade among 20 EU member states in the Eurozone. While it boosts growth, it also links economies with different characteristics, creating challenges in times of crisis.

As power shifts globally, the currency order may fragment, with several major currencies co-existing.

The role of the US dollar could decline, but it is unlikely to be replaced by a single alternative.

Read more about dollar’s global dominance, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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30/09/2025

🇹🇷 Türkiye sits at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa, controlling the Bosporus Strait that carries 6.6% of global maritime trade.

Its proximity to Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine makes it a pivotal player in regional security. This geography also connects Europe with oil- and gas-rich states such as Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Russia.

Türkiye fields NATO’s second-largest army with about 355,000 soldiers, and hosts 50 American nuclear bombs on its soil.

Turkish drone maker Baykar leads globally, with the Bayraktar TB2 now the world’s most exported UAV.

Military strength and advanced defence exports have become central to Türkiye’s global profile.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rose from Istanbul mayor to reshape Türkiye’s political system.

After surviving a failed coup in 2016, he expanded presidential powers through a 2017 referendum.

Balancing between global powers, Türkiye has deepened ties with Russia and China while remaining neutral on the Ukraine war.

In 2024, it approved Sweden’s NATO membership in exchange for economic and military gains. These moves underscore Türkiye’s shift from a purely pro-Western stance to a multipolar foreign policy.

Read more about Erdogan’s Türkiye, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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13/09/2025

Coca is a native plant in northwestern South America.

• Coca is used for medical and ritual purposes in local cultures and as raw material for making co***ne (a highly addictive stimulant drug).

Around 65% of coca is grown in Colombia, 27% in Peru and 8% in Bolivia.

Farmers in rural communities cultivate and harvest coca.

Their living and work conditions vary from country to country:

• In Colombia and Peru, criminal groups use the threat of violence to take over farmers’ crops or buy them cheaply.

• In Bolivia, local family clans buy farmers’ surplus and sell it to criminal organisations.
After the harvest, chemists backed by criminal groups convert coca leaves into coca paste and then into co***ne in jungle labs.

Co***ne production boomed in the 1970s because of growing US demand, where it was becoming a fashionable nightlife stimulant.

Production declined briefly from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, reaching record levels in the early 2020s.

In 2023, the global production of co***ne was approximately 3,700 tons, with an estimated 25 million users worldwide.

Read our report on the Geopolitics of Co***ne, free and ad-free:

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05/09/2025

Read more about South China Sea in our full report, free and ad-free (as always).

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04/09/2025

Vietnam continues to integrate economically with China, despite political concerns, while also staying firmly outside any formal alliance system.

During the Cold War, Vietnam fought against both the United States and China, making it wary of getting too close to any foreign power.

Growing US-China tensions has led some countries to move part of their manufacturing to Vietnam in an effort to reduce risk by diversifying supply chains.

Paradox: this made Vietnam more attractive to countries wanting to reduce exposure to China while also boosting China-Vietnam trade.

• Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia have kept a lower profile in the disputes compared to other countries in the region.

ASEAN does not have a common position on the South China Sea disputes.

Its decisions require mutual agreement, which promotes harmony but makes reaching a decision harder.

• Some ASEAN members, such as Cambodia and Laos, do not have any territorial disputes with China and wish to keep good relations with their large neighbour.

The region’s growing significance as well as worsening China-Western relations have led to outside parties becoming more present in the South China Sea.

The United States, the United Kingdom, and France have all engaged in “freedom of navigation operations”.

The stated purpose: to ensure that ships can freely sail in international waters while pushing back against China’s maritime claims that contradict international law.

China views these operations as an effort to constrain it militarily.

Read more about South China Sea in our full report, free and ad-free (as always).

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03/09/2025

The South China Sea is a site of overlapping territorial claims, geopolitical competition, and a crucial part of the world economy.

Its seabed holds large reserves of crude oil and natural gas, the exploration of which is complicated by disputes.

Trillions of dollars worth of trade flows through the South China Sea every year.

The sea connects major East Asian economies like China, Japan, and South Korea with Europe, Africa, and the rest of Asia.

The disputes involve 6 countries (China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Brunei) as well as Taiwan (not recognised by most countries) but also increasingly involve external actors like the United States.

Read more about South China Sea in our full report, free and ad-free (as always).

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29/08/2025

In 2024, India’s imports from China reached $120 billion, while its exports to China totaled just $18 billion.

In 2023, major Chinese exports to India included $70 billion in electronic components and $20 billion in chemicals.

These goods are essential to India’s rapidly growing technology manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries.

To curb reliance on Chinese trade, India has introduced measures aimed at reducing this dependency.

Read more about China-India relations, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free:

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28/08/2025

China-India relations have been defined by China’s control of Tibet and a continuing dispute along their mountainous border.

Between 2005 and 2012, the relationship featured political dialogue, the expansion of border infrastructure, and occasional minor incidents.

Infrastructure has played a central role, with both countries building roads, railways, military bases, and villages along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

This allows to reinforce territorial claims and enable faster troop movement.

Ties deteriorated following the rise of nationalist leaders Xi Jinping in China (2012) and Narendra Modi in India (2014).

Read everything you need to know about the relationship between the two superpowers in our latest report, ad-less and free.

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