Post factum, London (2025)

22/08/2025

The world’s most powerful currency is the US dollar due to its widespread use, especially in foreign currency transactions.

Foreign exchange has a daily turnover of over $7.5 trillion, with most of transactions made between banks.

Dollar’s strength comes from (1) the strength of the US economy and (2) the global economic order coming out of the Second World War.

After 1945, the US provided loans to help rebuild European countries, as well as exporting industrial goods and equipment. This strengthened the global centrality of the dollar.

The US is a leading country in institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank that control global lending.

The US has a 16.5% voting power in the IMF, and a 15.8% share in the World Bank. Japan is the second strongest voter with 6% and 7% respectively, China closely follows.

Most global energy trade is carried out in US dollars, which has led to revenue generated by oil exporters being nicknamed “petrodollars.”

Since the 1970s the United States has had a trade deficit, meaning it imports more than it exports.

One result of this has been that dollars have been leaving the US and increasingly circulating in the global economy, making the US dollar more central to international trade.

The strength and stability of the US dollar has led several countries to peg their currency to the US dollar, meaning their exchange rate is fixed.

Read more about Currency Geopolitics, our check out our other reports!

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20/08/2025

📈EU defence expenditure rose from €190 billion in 2014 to €326 billion in 2024, adjusted for inflation.

Member states are accelerating efforts to modernise and expand their militaries.

Public awareness of security challenges has grown, with 77% of Europeans backing a shared defence policy.

Even with higher ambitions in security, the European Union still lacks a unified military force.

Read more about European defence, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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18/08/2025

💰The European Union ranks as the world’s second-largest defence spender, following the United States. Spending is expected to rise by more than €100 billion by 2027.

Yet the figures do not fully reflect the situation.

Unlike the US or China, Europe’s military strength is divided among 27 national armies, each influenced by its own doctrine, culture and economy 🪖.

Read more about European defence, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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17/08/2025

Despite expanding its security ambitions, the European Union still lacks a unified military force.

Matters of defence and foreign policy largely remain under the authority of individual member states.

EU-wide decisions in these areas are determined by the Council of the EU, requiring agreement from all members 🤝.

Read more about European defence, or check out our other reports, ad-less and free.

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11/08/2025

Both India and Pakistan tried to claim victory in their 2025 clash, but there was no clear winner in military terms, and the result was effectively a draw.

India’s successes:

• India hit some of Pakistan’s military infrastructure and airfields, proving its ability to do so. Pakistan is reportedly now purchasing China’s latest air defence systems.
• India managed to hit some terrorist-linked locations in Pakistan. This allows India to claim victory in the eyes of some Hindu-nationalist voters.
• India carried out strikes deeper into Pakistani territory than in previous conflicts, pushing the diplomatic boundary of what is a proportional response to a terror attack on its territory.
• India was able to intercept Pakistan’s missiles aimed at its military infrastructure, such as over the Sirsa airbase.

Pakistan’s successes:

• Diplomatic victory: international media coverage of the conflict generally discussed India and Pakistan as equals, which counters India’s official view of Pakistan as a terrorist-sponsoring “rogue” state.
• Drone strikes: while India successfully intercepted most of Pakistan’s drones, this conflict marked their first mass use with some limited success.
• Fighter jets downed: major military success for Pakistan came as India lost 1 to 6 fighter jets, including at least 1 modern French-made Rafale jet.
Initially, the loss of the fighter jets was attributed to the strength of Chinese-supplied J-10 fighter jets, air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles.

However, it is now also known that India’s military command made a tactical mistake: the airstrikes on day 1 targeted terrorist-linked infrastructure directly, instead of Pakistan’s air defence systems.

Potential reason: India wrongly assumed that Pakistan would not risk escalation by shooting down an Indian jet before it crosses into Pakistani territory.

India adjusted its tactic and in the later days of the conflict successfully hit sensitive targets in Pakistan without suffering more losses.

This was a section of a recent News Breakdown report we published.

Check out the full report on our website to find out more about the clash of narratives and fighter jets!

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08/08/2025

Israel operates one of the world’s most complex air defence architectures.

Israel’s air defence system is designed to counter threats ranging from rockets and drones to long-range ballistic missiles.

Each layer plays a complementary role.

The Iron Dome is Israel’s short–range air shield.

Iron Dome has been in use since 2011.

It is designed to intercept and destroy rockets, artillery shells and drones launched from 4 to 70 km away.

Iron Dome does not try to intercept every projectile. It automatically analyses each rocket’s trajectory and only intercepts those that would otherwise hit a populated area, not the desert.

This approach saves money and interceptor missiles.

Each interceptor missile costs approximately $50,000.

In recent conflicts, the Iron Dome has achieved interception rates above 90%.

Read more about Israel’s air defence system, including the David’s Sling, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, as well as how air defence systems work in general or in other conflicts in our latest report:

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04/08/2025

In 2015 and 2016, over a million refugees arrived in Europe.

Since 2022, a new wave of migration has been driven by global conflict.

This continues to bring lasting economic and political consequences for the EU.

Public opposition to immigration often stems from concerns over integration, welfare costs, job competition and crime.

Ongoing instability in the Middle East and Africa, along with the worsening effects of climate change, is likely to trigger further waves of migration.

As Europe continues to debate its migration policies, the pressure to respond is not going away.

Read more about European migrant crisis, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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03/08/2025

🇨🇩The conflict in eastern DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo) involves multiple actors.

The Congolese army, weakened by corruption and low morale, faces the M23 militia, a Tutsi-led group with an estimated 6,000 fighters supported by Rwanda.

Rwanda denies involvement but is accused of sending thousands of troops and smuggling valuable minerals like coltan.

Uganda and Burundi have also deployed troops, officially to fight armed groups, but face allegations of supporting M23 and looting resources.

Meanwhile, a UN peacekeeping force of 11,000 remains in place after plans for withdrawal were halted due to ongoing instability.

Read more about war in the Congo, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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01/08/2025

Below is a section of a recent edition of our News Breakdown weekly special.

You can find out more or lead this report in full on our website:

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DeepSeek openly published its model’s parameters and its research breakthroughs, allowing others to benefit from the advancement.

• This helped a number of Chinese AI companies, like Alibaba and Tencent, to catch up with US competitors.

Soon after launch, DeepSeek was targeted by a large-scale cyberattack that caused it to pause registering new users in China and led to the loss of some sensitive data.

In response to competition from DeepSeek, Google and OpenAI introduced lower pricing tiers and cheaper models.

Other companies, like Microsoft and Perplexity, incorporated DeepSeek models into their products.

However, DeepSeek has increased its prices and removed promotional discounts over time, leading to some costs rising by 300% since.

Some countries banned the use of DeepSeek: Italy, India, Australia, South Korea and Taiwan. Some governments and organisations also introduced restrictions or bans.

Nvidia’s stock price recovered 70% of its loss caused by DeepSeek after a month. However, it then fell even further due to the US escalating a trade war.

By June 2025, Nvidia’s stock price is again approaching its pre-DeepSeek level.

Check out postfactum.co.uk for more!

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31/07/2025

Air defence systems protect places and people from aerial attacks, including from:

• Drones: these could range from quick FPV drones smaller than 50 centimetres, to larger and slower loitering munitions such as the Shahed.

• Missiles: these range from simple rockets handmade by militant groups or terrorists, to hypersonic cruise missiles which are more like pilotless fighter jets.

• Aircraft: helicopters or planes can fire rockets, drop bombs, or use direct fire, including from long distances.

Our latest report covers everything you need to know about Air Defence systems, from competing technology to its use in specific conflicts.

Check it out on our website:

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28/07/2025

🌍The United Nations (UN) was founded in 1945. Today, its 193 member states represent 99.5% of the world’s population.

The UN has 5 main goals: to maintain peace and security, protect human rights, deliver humanitarian aid, support economic development, and enforce international law.

• The UN Security Council can adopt legally binding resolutions to authorize sanctions, approve the use of force, or establish peacekeeping missions.

However, frequent use of veto power by permanent members of Security Council to protect national interests undermines the Council’s credibility.

Read more about United Nations, or check out our other pieces, ad-less and free.

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27/07/2025

📊 Ukraine ended up capturing around 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory in August 2024.

Ukraine was also able to capture hundreds of prisoners of war to exchange for its nationals held in Russia.

By September, the frontline in Kursk stabilised, with Ukrainian holdings dependent on a few key roads for supplies.

Through autumn and winter, Russian forces began slowly recapturing the Ukrainian-controlled territory.

By October 2024, around 10,000 North Korean troops arrived in Kursk to fight against Ukraine.

Russia actively used its latest development: fibre optic drones. These are (usually FPV) drones that fly connected to a very long cable which allows them to be immune to signal jamming devices.

• Fibre optic drone strikes efficiently destroyed Ukraine’s armoured vehicles and endangered its supply lines in Kursk.

In February 2025, US military aid to Ukraine was paused, which restricted the availability of some munitions in the short term, but the frontline in Kursk was already falling by that time.

In March 2025, Russia was able to recapture most of the territory in Kursk.

Ukraine suffered significant losses in troops and vehicles, especially during the retreat from Kursk, as analysts suggest that it was delayed to the point where supply lines were too unsafe.

Did Russia redirect its forces to Kursk?

Did Ukraine improve its negotiating position?

Did Ukraine prevent an attack from Kursk?

Did the Kursk operation boost Ukrainian morale?

We answer these questions and give a review of media reactions to Ukraine’s surprise Kursk attack, explaining the different takes.

Explore News Breakdown or read one of our regular reports:

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