21/08/2026
“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts”
The UK is set to experience more storms and rain over the upcoming autumn and winter seasons caused by an “unprecedented” El Niño event, forecasters have warned.
The phenomenon is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.
The natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to reach more than 3C in the coming months, making this year’s weather event “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office.
It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster predicts.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.
“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
For context, he said: “A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2C - with 2C being a really big event."
The events drive an increase in global average temperature, with 2027 forecast to be the warmest year on record.
The UK’s fifth heatwave earlier this month saw the hottest day of the year recorded in Kew Gardens, London, on 13 August when temperatures reached 38.1C.
The record-breaking string of heatwaves and lack of rainfall in recent months has brought the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters of England and all of Wales into drought - putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
However, the UK's weather is ever-changing, as the country was hit by heavier showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with the north-west of England seeing the wettest conditions in the last 24 hours, according to the Environment Agency (EA).
