24/02/2023
Will Nigeria’s elections finally herald economic and political change? FocusEconomics shares its forecast below... 👇
"Nigeria has immense economic potential. It boasts a huge and fast-growing consumer market; the population – already the largest in Africa – is forecast to reach over 240m by 2027. The country is also a major oil producer, with 37bn barrels in proven crude reserves. And it has a burgeoning entrepreneurial scene; Nigeria is home to the most start-ups in Africa, with particular strength in the fintech space.
"But that potential is far from evident in recent economic performance. During incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in office, GDP growth has averaged a measly 1.1% – far below the rate of population growth – the public debt-to-GDP ratio has nearly doubled, inflation has soared and the currency has tumbled. Infrastructure underinvestment is chronic, and insecurity and graft are rife; a significant chunk of oil produced is plundered before it can reach customers.
"General elections on 25 February offer a chance for change. A record number of people have registered to vote, 40% of whom are younger than 35. Many young people are pinning their hopes on Peter Obi. Running as an anti-establishment, anti-corruption candidate, Obi represents neither of the two parties which have dominated Nigerian politics since the 1999 return to democracy.
"An Obi presidency would be the most likely to mark a break with politics-as-usual and usher in badly needed economic reforms. Yet his winning the elections still seems a long shot; Obi’s Labor Party lacks territorial organisation and traction outside major cities. And even if he wins, economic challenges and political resistance to change will be immense. Victory for an establishment party candidate could still lead to changes: given the gapinf fiscal deficit, steps to reduce fuel subsidies, lessen FX distortions and boost the oil sector would all be on the cards regardless of the next president.
"The Consensus Forecast from analysts at Focus Economics is for Nigeria's GDP to expand by over 3% annually on average in 2023–2027. This would mark an improvement from Buhari’s time in office, with activity supported by the imminent inauguration of a key oil refinery and the beneficial effects of the recent African Continental Free Trade Area. But growth is still seen below the regional average. For the foreseeable future, the economy’s potential is expected to remain untapped."
As the EIU notes: "Pervasive instability, corruption, high inflation, a lack of formal land titling, exchange-rate instability and a giant infrastructure gap will prevent greater dynamism.”
For more insight on Nigeria's elections, go to: https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/nigeria/news/politics/nigeria-to-hold-first-three-way-general-elections-since-1999-on-25-february
Nigeria to hold first three-way general elections since 1999 on 25 february