Weather Watch UK

Weather Watch UK Providing weather updates for the UK. Views are my own. Providing amateur weather forecasts for the UK and Ireland.
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28/10/2025

Sparing a thought for the people of Jamaica as hurricane Melissa approaches.

A category 5 hurricane with 175mph maximum sustained winds. The strongest storm anywhere in the world this year so far and likely to be the strongest to impact the island in generations.

It has a central pressure of around 900mb, putting it comfortable in the top 10 deepest Atlantic hurricanes on record, and a gust of 241mph recorded by hurricane hunters is a new record for a hurricane.

It has also broken the record for the driest eye of any tropical system. This is an indication of just how strong the centre of the storm is. As pressure falls, very dry air from high up is drawn downwards and warms in the storm’s eye.

18/10/2025

Changes afoot.

The area of high pressure which has brought settled but often cloudy conditions, is moving away eastwards to be replaced by low pressure. This will bring in unsettled conditions, with rain moving across southwestern areas tonight before spreading across all areas tomorrow with clearer but showery conditions following. This then leads us into a more unsettled outlook for next week.

Chalk and cheese.After the very unsettled conditions this weekend courtesy of storm Amy, next weekend couldn’t look more...
05/10/2025

Chalk and cheese.

After the very unsettled conditions this weekend courtesy of storm Amy, next weekend couldn’t look more different. High pressure will become increasingly influential from late next week, bringing more settled conditions to the UK.

03/10/2025

The highest low level wind gust so far from Storm Amy is 96mph on Tiree. This ties their October record.

A 92mph gust at Magilligan is a new October record for Northern Ireland.

A plethora of Met Office rain and wind warnings as Storm Amy brings wet and windy conditions to the UK later today throu...
03/10/2025

A plethora of Met Office rain and wind warnings as Storm Amy brings wet and windy conditions to the UK later today through Saturday, particularly across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Of most concern is the western half of Northern Ireland and the northwest of Scotland and the Western Isles. Exposed areas of the Western Isles may see winds gusting in excess of 100mph.

Full details - https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings #?date=2025-10-03

01/10/2025

Storm Amy has been named by the UK Met Office and is set to bring wet and windy conditions to the UK late this week.

Amy is a new separate low that will be spawned ahead of what will be ex Hurricane Humberto and so has been named separately from Humberto.

30/09/2025

Stormy end to the week.

Late this week, the remnants of Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda look to get caught up by the Jet Stream and move towards the UK and Ireland as an extra-tropical low pressure system, deepening on approach. This will result in a spell of rain and some very strong winds for parts of the UK, with northern areas currently looking to be at highest risk of disruptive conditions.

Both hurricanes are currently situated to the southeast of the US mainland and are expected to merge as their circulations near one another, in a process known as the fujiwhara effect. This is where two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas.

13/09/2025

The unsettled conditions continue this weekend into next week.

Today brings another mix of sunny spells and showers, with a risk of hail and thunder. Driest for parts of eastern England, away from the southwest.

Sunday starts drier for most but we see an area of low pressure and its associated fronts bringing in wet and windy conditions to all areas. The strongest winds will be to the south of this system, with a Met Office yellow warning for strong winds across England and Wales. 45-55mph gusts likely in land, with 60-70mph gusts around exposed coasts and over hills. The main area of rain clears later on Sunday but the generally unsettled and windy conditions continue into Monday.

25/08/2025

Following the warmest late August bank holiday on record for Northern Ireland (24.5’C) and Wales (29.6’C), conditions turn more unsettled and cooler for all in the days ahead. Although, still warm in the south and east on Tuesday.

21/08/2025

Largely settled bank holiday weekend and then all change.

The bank holiday weekend is looking largely fine for most, bar a few showers, and it should be a bit warmer than recent days. However, as we move into next week, conditions look to turn more unsettled with more of a mobile, Atlantic pattern setting up. The first for quite some time. This is at least partly thanks to ex-hurricane Erin strengthening the jet stream, although whether the remnants of Erin itself have a direct impact on the UK is somewhat uncertain at this stage.

I remember this event made for an interesting case study. It demonstrated that higher resolution numerical weather predi...
16/08/2025

I remember this event made for an interesting case study.

It demonstrated that higher resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were needed to resolve and subsequently warn of such small scale (microscale to mesoscale) systems and their potential impacts, and higher resolution models have been developed since. Computer models at the time weren’t high resolution enough for such small systems and the event was poorly forecast.

It also contributed to the development of “nowcasting” tools; Short range observations-based forecasts valid for periods of up to six hours.

And establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre; A collaboration between the Environment Agency and the Met Office, based in the Operations Centre at Met Office HQ.

And the setting up of a network of Met Office Advisors (Civil Contingencies) who ensure that local resilience teams are aware of the development of potentially severe weather and what the impacts might be so that they can plan and prepare.

AI NWP and forecasting tools should also help to better warn of such events in the future.

Live, learn, develop and evolve.

Satellite imagery showing quite clearly smoke from wildfires over Portugal drifting northwards towards the UK. Likely to...
15/08/2025

Satellite imagery showing quite clearly smoke from wildfires over Portugal drifting northwards towards the UK. Likely to turn skies hazy and may lead to some vivid sunsets and sunrises.

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