19/06/2025
Impact of 112 bcm Natural Gas Discovery in Dailekh on Nepal's Per Capita Income
1. Overview In 2025, Nepal discovered a massive reserve of natural gas in Dailekh, estimated at 112 billion cubic meters (bcm). This reserve has the potential to significantly boost Nepal's economy, particularly if successfully commercialized and exported.
2. Economic Valuation
Total Reserve: 112 bcm
Average Energy Content: 1 cubic meter ≈ 1.25 MMBtu
Total Energy Content: 112 bcm × 1.25 = 140 billion MMBtu
Average Market Price: $6 per MMBtu
Total Estimated Value: 140 billion MMBtu × $6 = $840 billion USD
3. Per Capita Income Impact
Nepal's Population (2025): ~30 million
Total Revenue per Person: $840 billion / 30 million = $28,000 per person (if distributed equally)
4. Annualized Impact (20-year extraction/export plan)
$28,000 / 20 years = $1,400 per person/year
Current Per Capita Income: ~$1,456 USD
Projected New Income: $1,456 + $1,400 = $2,856 per person/year (almost double)
5. National Economic Benefits
Reduces import dependency on LPG and gas
Saves foreign currency
Creates thousands of jobs (extraction, refining, transport)
Increases government revenue from taxes and royalties
Boosts foreign investment and energy security
6. Preconditions for Realizing Benefits
Transparent governance and anti-corruption mechanisms
Strong national energy policy
Infrastructure for extraction, storage, refining, and export
Public-private and international partnerships
Environmental and social safeguards
7. Conclusion The Dailekh gas discovery can be a game-changer for Nepal. If managed properly, it has the potential to double Nepal's per capita income and transform the national economy for decades. Effective planning, investment, and policy will be key to turning this natural wealth into long-term prosperity.