Diplomacy in Ireland - The European Diplomat

17/03/2026

New Release — a must-read for today’s world.

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25/02/2026

Tomorrow's second round of negotiations between the US-Iran are unlikely to avert a US strike. Despite claiming the US had obliterated Iran's nuclear programme as late as 11 February, Trump is now intent that Iran's nuclear programme presents such a threat that a new round of kinetic strikes are necessary. The Trump Administration seems intent on finding a casus belli without making its case one exists.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff spoke to reporters at the weekend expressing surprise Iran had not "capitulated" as though an ultimatum had been delivered in lieu of negotiations. Meanwhile, in Tehran, the Supreme Leader waxed poetic about the glory of martyrdom. The die seems cast.

Iran has designated successors to key leadership positions to ensure the survival of the regime. Plain clothed Basij Revolutionary Guard members are keeping student protests tightly in check as tensions grow. What remains of Iran's nuclear programme may be targeted but the likelihood any US strike could wipe-out the inherent knowledge base amongst its scientists and engineers is pure fantasy. Hence, Washington wants regime change and yet without troops in the region to put boots on the ground what remains is simply the capacity to inflict crushing pain on Iran without any clear indication it will lead to regime change.

Within Iran, dissatisfaction with the regime grows by the day. Whatever desire may exist for regime change is crippled by the lack of an identifiable leader capable of marshalling wide-spread support. Iran has no legitimate 'government in exile'. Trump's may well end-up creating a vacuum that will plunge the Iranian people into a vicious civil war with attending competition for power and retribution for past acts. Chaos seems to be likely.

Retribution directed at US personnel and interests, and most assuredly Israel, is likely to follow. Iran's network of affiliates and aligned interests groups have the ability to inflict significant pain and suffering through asymmetrical strikes that are hard to detect and even more difficult to defend.

It is increasingly clear that the Law of Unintended Consequences is being ignored in what is almost assuredly a run-up to war.

Includes video commentary by Miceal O'Hurley with Al-Qahera News network.

13/02/2026

With little hope for any outcome but an agreement to continue dialogue without the use of military force, last Friday’s indirect dialogue in Muscat failed to produce a discernable outcome. There was no indication of any deal having been reached. Now President Trump has sent a 2nd naval strike force to the region. Chances for military strike increased sharply.

If the pattern holds - the Administration may use military use as a disruptor to meet foreign policy goals and distract from polls and dwindling support on the domestic home front.

Iran-US Dialogue in Muscat Leaves Uncertainty | 2nd Strike Force Deployment to Region Points Towards Kinetic Strike Possibility | by Miceal O'Hurley

by Miceál O'Hurley TEHRAN — With little hope for any outcome but an agreement to continue dialogue without the use

23/01/2026

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) attack upon Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, who granted the Tomos of autocephaly to Ukraine, marks the Russian State's hybrid warfare campaign against the West. Russia seeks to divide Orthodox Christians by calling the Ecumenical Patriarch the "anti-Christ" hoping to force them to choose between East-West and the Ecumenical Patriarch and Moscow Patriarch as the centre of Christianity. This political act by the SVR was met with silence by the Moscow Patriarch indicating approval and wide promotion by Russia's disinformation services including the Union of Orthodox Journalists (UOJ) and other pro-Russian sites.

by Miceál O’Hurley DUBLIN — Last week’s attack by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) upon His All-Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch

21/01/2026

Without an external or domestic candidate around whom protestors might coalesce, the Islamic Republic's regime has weathered another brutal round of protests. Iran's future depends on reform - without it - the Islamic Republic will continue to endure the cycle of protest and brutal repression that has attended with increasing ferocity. Will the Islamic Republic of Iran pursue reform without sacrificing what it sees as its Islamic values or will the cycle of protest-and-repression continue to plague the Iranian people? What is next?

by Miceál O’Hurley TEHRAN — After almost 3-weeks of mass protests demanding regime change in Iran the protests have been

21/01/2026

By conflating his interest with America's, left unchecked, Trump marks the demise of his personal and America's international prestige. While Putin enjoys seeing NATO fret over the possibility of it emerging deeply fractured, and the EU facing sanctions, the reality is Europe holds enough US Treasury Bonds to punish Trump and the American people overnight. Europe and NATO are emerging more resolved to be self-reliant with both Trump and America becoming less relevant.

Trump can't make it happen. American troops are already being told by Catholic Bishops it is moral to refuse to follow orders to use force against peaceful Greenland for Trump's vanity project. There aren't enough votes in the US Senate to ratify a Treat to purchase Greenland even if Trump tries and Congress, which holds the power of the purse strings, while usually pliant to Trump's demands, are still institutionalist and constitutionalist enough to say no.

Despite the glee in the Kremlin, and Trump's joy at world attention being directed at him and the White House, Europe will emerge the real winner of this American debacle in the failed exercise of power for whim. It will, however, come at a cost for all, mostly for Trump and America.

by Miceál O’Hurley COPENHAGEN — Donald Trump’s obsession with the US acquiring Greenland for what he calls “America’s security interests”