11/06/2026
The United States Cannot Afford to Lose
Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan argues that technology is now the main arena of competition between the United States and China and will determine the future global balance of power.
For years, many assumed China would remain an imitator. Instead, it built a strategy based on manufacturing strength, scale, and control of critical supply chains. Sullivan warns that innovation cannot be separated from production: when factories leave, expertise and future innovation often leave as well.
He identifies three key technological battlegrounds:
Computing (chips, AI, quantum technology)
Biotechnology
Clean-energy technologies (especially batteries and power electronics)
China's goal is not to dominate everything but to control critical "chokepoints" such as rare-earth processing, battery production, and pharmaceutical ingredients, making others dependent on Chinese supply chains.
To remain competitive, the U.S. must invest more in science, attract top talent, rebuild manufacturing, and speed up innovation in areas such as batteries, drones, robotics, and advanced defense systems.
Sullivan also emphasizes the importance of alliances. By coordinating industrial policies and supply chains with partners, democracies can counter China's scale and influence more effectively.
Rather than fully decoupling from China, he supports a "small yard, high fence" approach: maintain normal trade while strictly protecting the most sensitive technologies.
He concludes that the U.S. must secure four strategic advantages:
1. Rebuild its industrial base.
2. Accelerate military innovation.
3. Promote a democratic digital order.
4. Maintain stable but competitive relations with China.
His message is that the U.S.-China rivalry is a decades-long competition that will be decided by technology, industry, and talent rather than by military power alone.